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Author Topic: repeat of 2011?  (Read 902 times)
Biodom (OP)
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January 13, 2015, 07:13:53 PM
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Between Sept and Nov 2011, mining difficulty decreased about twofold in the wake of ~75% plunge in BTC price (from ~8 to $2).
Right now, we already have network hashing speed down to 229Ph from 330Ph (~30% decrease) following $320 to $230 plunge (a fast ~28% decrease in price).
In conclusion, network hash will probably decrease to ~150-160Ph if and when BTC drops to $160-170. perhaps, this would be a bottom just as it was in 2011.
The lowest BTC can go within so far observed bear markets is ~$72-84 ( similar percentage to 2011), not that would be very desirable.
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January 13, 2015, 10:04:23 PM
 #2

Between Sept and Nov 2011, mining difficulty decreased about twofold in the wake of ~75% plunge in BTC price (from ~8 to $2).
Right now, we already have network hashing speed down to 229Ph from 330Ph (~30% decrease) following $320 to $230 plunge (a fast ~28% decrease in price).
In conclusion, network hash will probably decrease to ~150-160Ph if and when BTC drops to $160-170. perhaps, this would be a bottom just as it was in 2011.
The lowest BTC can go within so far observed bear markets is ~$72-84 ( similar percentage to 2011), not that would be very desirable.


I am have trouble seeing network speed at 229Ph

 I find some est. at 289ph  and at 273ph

As to how low can the coin drop?

 I wonder if it could go under 100.

I did purchase some at 237 usd today.

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Biodom (OP)
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January 14, 2015, 03:15:53 AM
 #3

Between Sept and Nov 2011, mining difficulty decreased about twofold in the wake of ~75% plunge in BTC price (from ~8 to $2).
Right now, we already have network hashing speed down to 229Ph from 330Ph (~30% decrease) following $320 to $230 plunge (a fast ~28% decrease in price).
In conclusion, network hash will probably decrease to ~150-160Ph if and when BTC drops to $160-170. perhaps, this would be a bottom just as it was in 2011.
The lowest BTC can go within so far observed bear markets is ~$72-84 ( similar percentage to 2011), not that would be very desirable.


I am have trouble seeing network speed at 229Ph

 I find some est. at 289ph  and at 273ph

As to how low can the coin drop?

 I wonder if it could go under 100.

I did purchase some at 237 usd today.

It was 229 on my zeroblock app, maybe they posted wrong number, although I expect it to go down 30% or maybe even up to 50% in the next few weeks.
I am done with buying for now, only passively accumulate BTC through mining.
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January 16, 2015, 11:34:25 PM
 #4

Total hashrate has gone up to 315 PHS currently and seems to be on the rise. Again.
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January 17, 2015, 11:43:07 PM
 #5

Measuring the total network hashrate is really more difficult to do then just looking at a graph of block times. This is especially true now that we are somewhat moving away from pool mining and into corporate farm mining, whereas previously it was possible to get a somewhat rough estimate of the total hashrate by looking at the major pools "advertised" hashrate.

You need to understand that some of the variance in the hashrate is going to be due to luck of the overall network so a small change is not actually anyone taking miners offline

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