Smoothie's take on price and people's emotions related to price

[smoothie]

I've noticed that many people are emotionally attached to Bitcoin and its price hikes or falls.

What this tells me is that people are partially if not completely invested in Bitcoin for the wrong reasons.

If your mere goal is to get rich quick or to only turn a profit then this is why you have these strong emotions connected to price.

For me personally Bitcoin was a mindset change as with gold and silver they got me to think differently in terms of money, exchanging, trading and the entire financial system altogether.

The traditional financial system is broken where a select few get to create something for nothing (example: the fed is one of the few if not the only existing entity that can write a check with a balance of 0 on their books in order to "create" money/fiat). An alternative that is outside of government control at its core was needed. I still believe that Bitcoin is that alternative.

Some of the other wrong reasons to use bitcoin would be to do illegal activities which I do not need to list here. Not sure if people doing illegal acts are emotionally stuck on the price of bitcoin or not (anyone got a take on this?).

In 2011 I stumbled upon Davincij15's youtube channel and prior to that I had already been heavily investing in silver with every paycheck. Davinci's explanation of bitcoin intrigued me and the rest is history.

But back to the topic of mindsets. I've found that if you change your mindset in life on how things work and how you view them it is the same thing as visualizing making a basketball go into a hoop like professionals do, you will eventually reach your goals of say financial freedom.

But this does not come (for me it didnt for years) quickly as it takes time, effort, saving, research, sound decision making, and a little bit of luck.

For me I consider myself very fortunate to have what I have today (family, assets, relationships, finances).

Just wanted to encourage those of you who have been emotionally attached to the price of bitcoin to take step away from the situation and go take a walk and reassess your reasons for being invested or interested in bit coin. Are they the right reasons?

Many of the early adopters who are highly respected today still say do not invest more than you can afford to lose into bitcoin.

I say don't invest into bitcoin for the wrong reasons.

Price may go to $10,000 or it could go to $0 but in the end did you invest for the right reasons?

[Wexlike]

I am a child of the internet, that is why i am investing in the cash of the internet.

[af_newbie]

You want to buy bitcoins because you still can buy them.

[practicaldreamer]

When I first purchased BTC around 18 months back (around 6 months later than I should have but for procrastinating) my initial concern/question was "How much of the price I am paying is artificially inflated through speculation ?" - I would have preferred to buy at a price point that reflected BTC's value based on its current utility, rather than an inflated price based on wealthy (and manipulative) speculators.

  Anyhow - I bought anyway - I didn't want to miss the boat etc etc.

 It now seems that BTC is being divested of manipulative, make a buck on the back of it, speculators and it is approaching its true utility based value. Time to buy I reckon  


    Only problem is, as far as BTC's future is concerned, is that it seems to me that in the final analysis we are all speculators - I mean, who amongst us, even the most ideological blockchain zealot, doesn't have a pricepoint at which they are going to sell ? 1000$ ?  10,000$ ?

    This to me presents a problem for bitcoin because it means that volatility is systematic/inherent - and people much prefer stability. Or the appearence of it at least - an illusion that fiat conjures admirably, and which is far from stable.


   Not to worry - not long before the next speculative pump - price rising, everyone here happy and all is well and good.

   Isn't it ?


  

    


      

[smoothie]

When I first purchased BTC around 18 months back (around 6 months later than I should have but for procrastinating) my initial concern/question was "How much of the price I am paying is artificially inflated through speculation ?" - I would have preferred to buy at a price point that reflected BTC's value based on its current utility, rather than an inflated price based on wealthy (and manipulative) speculators.

  Anyhow - I bought anyway - I didn't want to miss the boat etc etc.

 It now seems that BTC is being divested of manipulative, make a buck on the back of it, speculators and it is approaching its true utility based value. Time to buy I reckon  


    Only problem is, as far as BTC's future is concerned, is that it seems to me that in the final analysis we are all speculators - I mean, who amongst us, even the most ideological blockchain zealot, doesn't have a pricepoint at which they are going to sell ? 1000$ ?  10,000$ ?

    This to me presents a problem for bitcoin because it means that volatility is systematic/inherent - and people much prefer stability. Or the appearence of it at least - an illusion that fiat conjures admirably, and which is far from stable.


   Not to worry - not long before the next speculative pump - price rising, everyone here happy and all is well and good.

   Isn't it ?


  

    


      

You have some good points.

I would say yes almost everyone has a price they would sell at. Some prefer to not sell and just trade for goods and services despite price.

I didn't get into bit coin because I wanted to be rich. The technology interested me so much I was willing to invest in mining equipment in 2011 to go down that rabbit hole to understand bitcoin. Yes there was profit to be made but that wasn't the reason.

So to recap I invested in silver to preserve wealth.

I invested in bitcoin to see how far the rabbit hole goes.

I'd say the education of learning how an alternative payment system works and can work in society form its core is more important than profit in fiat terms.

[hennessyhemp]

When Linus Torvalds first made Linux, it was text based and required it's own language.  Now we have ubuntu usb sticks and smart phones running on shells influenced by linux source code.

I like the idea that we've built an airplane, it works, but the commercial airliners and airports don't yet exist.

I noticed I had a lot of emotional attachment to the price during the rise to 260, but I felt almost jaded during the rise to 1200.

At this point though, seeing Litecoin at damn near the prices I started trading it at over a year ago makes me feel like dancing...and buying.

[smoothie]

When Linus Torvalds first made Linux, it was text based and required it's own language.  Now we have ubuntu usb sticks and smart phones running on shells influenced by linux source code.

I like the idea that we've built an airplane, it works, but the commercial airliners and airports don't yet exist.

I noticed I had a lot of emotional attachment to the price during the rise to 260, but I felt almost jaded during the rise to 1200.

At this point though, seeing Litecoin at damn near the prices I started trading it at over a year ago makes me feel like dancing...and buying.

Why did you feel jaded during the 1200 rise?

[RodeoX]

Well said Smoothie. There is a lot of emotion in the bitcoin economy and it does not come from the code.  

[Torque]

Well, here's some food for thought:

We expect the world's populous to someday use bitcoin daily as both a transactional currency and a store of value, when its exchange rate is $50K/btc and its volatility is something like +/- 2% per year (so the theory goes).

But how else are we going to get there, without price increasing though greater demand?  And without retail investors going through all the pain?

We can't just sit back and rely on early adopters, deep pocket whale investors, exchange owners, $100M/year funded infrastructure companies, Wall Street, ETFs and big banks getting us there.  Otherwise they just become our new overlords in the future (just like the Diamond miners who control 90% of all the diamonds in the world, and national governments buying up all the available gold, letting us buy the scraps at $1300/ounce).

[saddambitcoin]

The best thing about bitcoin is freedom. You are in control of your own money.

When I first bought BTC in 2012, I was completely shut out of the banks due to some financial indiscretion of my youth. Even though I was employed, no bank or credit union would let me open any type of account because I was on a blacklist.

I learned how to use BTC because I didn't want to just have a bunch of cash sitting around. I would never have to worry about my funds being seized or stolen if I used the best practices. The price was relatively stable around $10, I figured at best it would turn a small profit or simply retain the same value.

In order to recover, we need the community to rediscover the fundamental strengths of bitcoin and value it for those reasons, not to become rich.

[practicaldreamer]

We expect the world's populous to someday use bitcoin daily as both a transactional currency and a store of value, when its exchange rate is $50K/btc and its volatility is something like +/- 2% per year (so the theory goes).

Yes - +/- 2% pa would be great - its the 90%+/- volatility in the interim period that will be a little difficult for some to stomach. Because we are all speculators.

But how else are we going to get there

That is the question.

No point pegging the value against (for eg) Gold - you just end up where you started.

I don't know the answer.

[smoothie]

Well, here's some food for thought:

We expect the world's populous to someday use bitcoin daily as both a transactional currency and a store of value, when its exchange rate is $50K/btc and its volatility is something like +/- 2% per year (so the theory goes).

But how else are we going to get there, without price increasing though greater demand?  And without retail investors going through all the pain?

We can't just sit back and rely on early adopters, deep pocket whale investors, exchange owners, $100M/year funded infrastructure companies, Wall Street, ETFs and big banks getting us there.  Otherwise they just become our new overlords in the future (just like the Diamond miners who control 90% of all the diamonds in the world, and national governments buying up all the available gold, letting us buy the scraps at $1300/ounce).

I agree, but that means people that are investing for the right reasons to get there.

If bitcoin has utility as we both agree it does, then eventually the need for its functions will naturally be demanded by the main stream market.

Making sure the foundation of bitcoin is laid ...the money will follow...people should focus on the developmental aspects more than price.

[smoothie]

We are all speculators in one way or another but it is the removing of the emotion that changes the view point of one individual vs another.

Once again if you speculate with the right mindset and attitude you will do well. Attaching emotion to investments is due to investing with the wrong mindset (for example doing it for a quick profit or investing what you can't afford to lose).

[hennessyhemp]

Why did you feel jaded during the 1200 rise?

Not totally certain, but I felt like I'd lived through it and knew what to expect to some degree.

Sadly, it was an exponential version of the 260 rise, including the lingering falling price...but on the up side we could be starting the next rally any day now.

During the first rise, it was the first time I had ever bought anything that gained value rapidly after acquiring it, so I think I was more emotionally involved
because I had skin in the game, and it was like I had picked a winning horse and got to watch it lap all the others.  That got me very excited.  The fall didn't
have nearly the effect of the rise on my psyche, as I had faith that the system was just going through growing pains, as I do now.

[njcarlos]

A+ thread, would read again.

But in all seriousness, I have to disagree w/ the assertion that we all have a "price point" where we will sell. Frankly, I don't. I will hold BTC until I spend them all. That means either retailers will accept them and I'll pay for goods/services with BTC, or this experiment will fail and I'll have traded some limited amount of my earnings for experience and education. After all, at $10k/BTC, why exchange BTC for USD when you can easily purchase USD10k worth of goods/services with your BTC? That's the end game.

Everyone will admit that they do not like to see their assets lose value. Frankly, if I had never seen a profit, I would be perfectly content and very happy to participate and help the ecosystem grow. As my assets lose value, I move closer toward breaking even, and ultimately I begin to see losses. I know it'll rebound, with time, so I have no urge to sell my holdings. Breaking even + bitcoin's long term success = perfect scenario. Anything else is a perk of taking risks as an early adopter.

[smoothie]

A+ thread, would read again.

But in all seriousness, I have to disagree w/ the assertion that we all have a "price point" where we will sell. Frankly, I don't. I will hold BTC until I spend them all. That means either retailers will accept them and I'll pay for goods/services with BTC, or this experiment will fail and I'll have traded some limited amount of my earnings for experience and education. After all, at $10k/BTC, why exchange BTC for USD when you can easily purchase USD10k worth of goods/services with your BTC? That's the end game.

Everyone will admit that they do not like to see their assets lose value. Frankly, if I had never seen a profit, I would be perfectly content and very happy to participate and help the ecosystem grow. As my assets lose value, I move closer toward breaking even, and ultimately I begin to see losses. I know it'll rebound, with time, so I have no urge to sell my holdings. Breaking even + bitcoin's long term success = perfect scenario. Anything else is a perk of taking risks as an early adopter.

Yes I agree with the bold. Not everyone has a price. Some want to trade for goods, assets, or services when it gets to a certain point in the future.

[smoothie]

Why did you feel jaded during the 1200 rise?

Not totally certain, but I felt like I'd lived through it and knew what to expect to some degree.

Sadly, it was an exponential version of the 260 rise, including the lingering falling price...but on the up side we could be starting the next rally any day now.

During the first rise, it was the first time I had ever bought anything that gained value rapidly after acquiring it, so I think I was more emotionally involved
because I had skin in the game, and it was like I had picked a winning horse and got to watch it lap all the others.  That got me very excited.  The fall didn't
have nearly the effect of the rise on my psyche, as I had faith that the system was just going through growing pains, as I do now.

Growing pains for sure.

This is the 4th or 5th time I've seen what I would call "capitulation" and despair in the markets.

The fall hasnt had that much of an affect on me either. The price rise was nice and all but for me it was seeing the practical functions of bit coin that excited me.

[hennessyhemp]

I like watching the infrastructure grow...and the self-weeding of scams like paycoin and cloud mining.

[MrBig]

Hmm, what happened to your $5k/btc by the New year prediction Smoothie? While you do make some valid points, you were on the forefront of the bitcoin pumping crowd, making outlandish predictions when it was clear to some that bitcoin was massively overvalued. The later investors had to pour a significantly larger amount of fiat into btc if they expected substantial profits, so naturally, they will feel more emotionally attached to their investment. Someone who invested $1000 into btc when it was worth $1, is not the same as someone who invested $100,000 when btc was at $1000 each.

You did a great job pumping BTC, and LTC especially, and now you're laughing all the way to the bank, whilst placing blame upon those whom you helped dupe into purchasing overpriced BTC with outlandish predictions. Of course, they made their own choice to buy at those prices and are responsible for their own actions, just like the people who decided to run off to Jonestown and join Jim Jones.

The moral of the story is, don't trust anyone in the world of crypto, especially not snake oil salesmen like Rpietila or those Winkle guys.

[saddambitcoin]

Trust no one! Make your own decisions.

And Trust Saddam™