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Author Topic: A second bubble?  (Read 4807 times)
miscreanity
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July 13, 2012, 12:29:10 AM
 #41

So far, these price rises have not entered danger zones on a weekly basis. This week's danger zone is above ~$8.50 with an immediate sell over $10.
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TraderTimm
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July 13, 2012, 07:22:35 AM
 #42

Lol, you proved it was not a bubble? Interesting. I think you rather came to the conclusion that it was not (I think I read your thread the other month). IMHO it was a bubble indeed showing all typical signs of a bubble, then it burst, not as abruptly as a bubble would burst with no value in its underlying security but it still did. Have a read through something on the "Gartner hype cycle",
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
you will discover, that what we have seen last June was a typical hype resulting in a correction of exaggerated expectations. Because there is intrinsic value in bitcoin the bubble burst didnt end its live, like with any fad, but only expressed those expectations and the decrease to some more realistic levels, matching yield of the technology in its current state.

@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it

Signs of a bubble, but not a bubble? Okay, thanks for agreeing with me - in a rather roundabout way, lol.

Code:
while(BTC.price > 0 && NetworkHash > 0)
{
      Bitcoin.Bubble.Status = false;
}

Hope that cleared some things up for you... (but probably not, lol) Like how you can contradict yourself and cover all the bases. Do you work for CNBC?


fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
ineededausername
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July 13, 2012, 01:50:54 PM
 #43

Code:
while(BTC.price > 0 && NetworkHash > 0)
{
      Bitcoin.Bubble.Status = false;
}

Hopefully this is an infinite loop Wink

(BFL)^2 < 0
thezerg
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July 13, 2012, 03:50:45 PM
 #44

When reading those old posts I came to the conclusion that half the people were arguing whether bitcoin itself is a bubble, and the other half arguing about whether bitcoin was currently in a bubble.  If you don't understand this distinction, a lot of smart people's posts end up sounding idiotic. 

I think its pretty obvious now to all who lived through the last 15 years (tech, housing bubbles) that there WAS a bubble in bitcoin.   But even if the price of a bitcoin eventually goes to zero its pretty clear at this point that you can't conclude that bitcoin-as-a-whole was a "bubble" -- it would merely be a failure.   But perhaps this terminology distinction won't matter to all of us holding onto coins... Smiley

humanitee
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July 13, 2012, 05:51:03 PM
 #45

Bear time?
ElectricMucus
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July 13, 2012, 05:57:16 PM
 #46

Bear time?

Just a temporary setback  Grin

The volume of the latest upspike was way too high for this to be it.
On the other hand bitcoin markets have behaved contrary to high volume moves in the past...

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
proudhon
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July 13, 2012, 06:02:01 PM
 #47

Bear time?

Overdue.  This thing needs to stop for a few weeks.
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July 13, 2012, 06:42:26 PM
 #48

Lol, you proved it was not a bubble? Interesting. I think you rather came to the conclusion that it was not (I think I read your thread the other month). IMHO it was a bubble indeed showing all typical signs of a bubble, then it burst, not as abruptly as a bubble would burst with no value in its underlying security but it still did. Have a read through something on the "Gartner hype cycle",
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
you will discover, that what we have seen last June was a typical hype resulting in a correction of exaggerated expectations. Because there is intrinsic value in bitcoin the bubble burst didnt end its live, like with any fad, but only expressed those expectations and the decrease to some more realistic levels, matching yield of the technology in its current state.

@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it

Signs of a bubble, but not a bubble? Okay, thanks for agreeing with me - in a rather roundabout way, lol.

Code:
while(BTC.price > 0 && NetworkHash > 0)
{
      Bitcoin.Bubble.Status = false;
}

Hope that cleared some things up for you... (but probably not, lol) Like how you can contradict yourself and cover all the bases. Do you work for CNBC?

Look again at my post:
Quote
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
In case you are not familiar with this abbreviation: "OP" refers to Original Post(er). My last comment was on the bubble mentioned in the OP. The OP asks, whether we are in a bubble right now. My answer to that is:
Quote
@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it

Everything in my post before that relates to the first bubble of July 2011.
TraderTimm
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July 13, 2012, 08:40:22 PM
 #49

In case you are not familiar with this abbreviation: "OP" refers to Original Post(er). My last comment was on the bubble mentioned in the OP. The OP asks, whether we are in a bubble right now. My answer to that is:

@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it

Everything in my post before that relates to the first bubble of July 2011.

How tiresome.

Go ahead and keep looking for 'bubbles', I'll keep on investing for my financial freedom and the future of finance.



fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
ElectricMucus
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July 13, 2012, 08:52:01 PM
 #50

In case you are not familiar with this abbreviation: "OP" refers to Original Post(er). My last comment was on the bubble mentioned in the OP. The OP asks, whether we are in a bubble right now. My answer to that is:

@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it

Everything in my post before that relates to the first bubble of July 2011.

How tiresome.

Go ahead and keep looking for 'bubbles', I'll keep on investing for my financial freedom and the future of finance.



Interesting how trading suddenly becomes investing.

haha.
(Don't mind me just pulling your leg a little)

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
TraderTimm
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July 13, 2012, 09:20:39 PM
 #51

Interesting how trading suddenly becomes investing.

haha.
(Don't mind me just pulling your leg a little)

No problem.

I'm doing both - working a position from day to day and a longer-term basis at a substantially under-par price. I'm not 'investing' in the sense of a losing trade turning into a longer-term 'hold-it-until-its-profitable' kind of trade. Early in my non-bitcoin trading career I've made that mistake, believe me.

I recommend ditching losing positions as soon as possible. Live to trade another day...

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
miscreanity
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July 14, 2012, 12:07:49 AM
 #52

Overdue.  This thing needs to stop for a few weeks.

External flows entering Bitcoin from other currencies have remained consistent. None of the moves since the USD$5.00 level have been excessive on a weekly basis, and each time so far there has been sufficient time to stabilize. Nothing is overtly suggestive of a major correction.
ineededausername
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July 14, 2012, 12:17:16 AM
 #53

Bear time?

Overdue.  This thing needs to stop for a few weeks.

This will be in my next "proudhon being wrong" quote package Grin

(BFL)^2 < 0
opticbit
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July 16, 2012, 08:09:37 PM
 #54

Bear time?

Beer time!
FTFY

Set up the same thing..
http://bit.ly/btcrefs
Get more bitcoins.
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