is black market / underground economy support the key?

[paulie_w]

sometimes it seems to me that the only way bitcoin is going to make it 'big' is by first finding huge support in the various underground economies of the world, places and situations where anonymity is as important as the fact that it is cash-based and untaxable. my guess is that its success there would surely indicate for all that it works and serves the function of its creator(s?) well, even at scale.

and how big is that market? i have no idea, but i would imagine it to be quite large indeed.

does anyone know the total size of just the global drug market for example?

what do you all think about this?

silk road may pave the way.

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[World]

The Shadow Economy at $10 Trillion is Second Largest in the World
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/03/19/could-bitcoin-become-the-currency-of-system-d/
http://www.infosecisland.com/blogview/21748-System-D-Bitcoins-Underground-Economy.html

[Realpra]

A: "Bitcoin is not backed by anything, its a ponzi!"

B: "Bitcoin is the ONLY way to buy cocaine safely online."

A: "That's reprehensible! ... Where can I get some bitcoins?"


I think we need a new slogan/talking point: "Bitcoin is backed by cocaine".

Sure its ugly, but its also a hard truth that as long as SR and similar are running BTC will never die - that's backing.

[opticbit]

I would like to think the gray market is.  Things that are and should be legal, but aren't because you can't afford the proper licensing/permit.

[waspoza]

Bitcoin is backed by cocaine and tits.

[ShireSilver]

I disagree. I think what we need is the tools and processes to make it easy for people to plug it in to their "legit" businesses. It will never grow big enough unless mainstream people use it.

Making it easy to use without disrupting current business practices is essential.

[MaxSan]

Cocaine is the tits. Lets snort some bitcoin.

[kangasbros]

I disagree. I think what we need is the tools and processes to make it easy for people to plug it in to their "legit" businesses. It will never grow big enough unless mainstream people use it.

What for you is "big enough"? If black markets really start using bitcoin (they actually aren't now, at least not much), bitcoin value would soar to some insane amounts. Just imagine the possibilities: illegal guns and drugs are the second and third largest businesses worldwide.

However, without legal businesses and legitimacy, nobody can admit using bitcoins. Or maybe goverments start throwing bitcoin users to jail.

[IveBeenBit]

I disagree. I think what we need is the tools and processes to make it easy for people to plug it in to their "legit" businesses. It will never grow big enough unless mainstream people use it.

Making it easy to use without disrupting current business practices is essential.

But as a consumer, I can't figure out ANY benefit to paying for a cup of coffee in bitcoins rather than paying in cash or with a credit card.

Yeah, it's great for us when businesses sell mundane things and accept BTC, but even if it were seamless for the merchant (and it already pretty much is seamless) you'll need an incentive for consumers to go through the extra trouble of acquiring and maintaining a bitcoin balance. I'm assuming that 95%+ of people will not care about bitcoin for any ideological reasons, just for practical reasons.

[kangasbros]

But as a consumer, I can't figure out ANY benefit to paying for a cup of coffee in bitcoins rather than paying in cash or with a credit card.

Yeah, it's great for us when businesses sell mundane things and accept BTC, but even if it were seamless for the merchant (and it already pretty much is seamless) you'll need an incentive for consumers to go through the extra trouble of acquiring and maintaining a bitcoin balance. I'm assuming that 95%+ of people will not care about bitcoin for any ideological reasons, just for practical reasons.

I agree. The normal usage will not come through bitcoins value transfer properties, but its value storage properties.

1. black market starts using bitcoins and nobody can stop it
2. bitcoin value goes up and up forever
3. people move more and more funds to bitcoins, because it is better store of value than fiat
4. when people have no more fiat funds and only bitcoins, they start using bitcoins

And even then, people won't be transfering bitcoins when they use them. For example, they pay with their credit card, and load the credit card later with services like aurumxchange.

So it is a long way, this scenario. Just a theory 

[FreeMoney]

I disagree. I think what we need is the tools and processes to make it easy for people to plug it in to their "legit" businesses. It will never grow big enough unless mainstream people use it.

Making it easy to use without disrupting current business practices is essential.

But as a consumer, I can't figure out ANY benefit to paying for a cup of coffee in bitcoins rather than paying in cash or with a credit card.

Yeah, it's great for us when businesses sell mundane things and accept BTC, but even if it were seamless for the merchant (and it already pretty much is seamless) you'll need an incentive for consumers to go through the extra trouble of acquiring and maintaining a bitcoin balance. I'm assuming that 95%+ of people will not care about bitcoin for any ideological reasons, just for practical reasons.

I have a ton of coins and no dollar income for ideological reasons. That makes buying coffee for bitcoins a practical benefit to me.

But yeah, going work--->cash--->bitcoin--->coffee is sillier than work--->cash--->coffee. But work--->bitcoin--->cash--->coffee might be inferior to work--->bitcoin--->coffee

[teflone]

Personally, if the black market used bitcoin heavily..

Coins would be worth a lot more than 25 a coin..  thats for sure..