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Author Topic: A story about Fred, the MMXIV Prospector  (Read 7275 times)
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Mortimer452
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January 15, 2015, 08:14:48 PM
 #1

A story about Fred, the MMXIV Prospector

I already mentioned Fred in the Maieuticoin ANN thread but figured this deserved its own separate thread to discuss.  Let's analyze his situation a little further.

Fred is imaginary, but this situation is not hypothetical, this is fact based on real numbers.  The chart below is based on actual BTC/USD values taken from the Winkdex and actual BTC/MMXIV daily highs from Bittrex:

BLUE line indicates BTC/USD value expressed in $USD
RED line indicates size of MMXIV wallet expressed in MMXIV
GREEN line indicates $USD value of MMXIV wallet


Fred purchased 20 MMXIV from Bittrex on Dec 14, 2014 at a price of 0.019 BTC per MMXIV.  The $USD value of his MMXIV at that time was $134.01 and the BTCBTC value of his wallet was 0.38 BTC.  He immediately transferred these MMXIV to his personal wallet and began staking.

Based on MMXIV's 2014% annual interest rate, compounded daily, by January 14, 2015 his wallet now contains 90.76 MMXIV, more than quadruple the coins he started with.  His ending MMXIV $USD wallet value is $263.97 or BTC1.34

The price of BTC/MMXIV dropped by 22.17%
The price of BTC/USD dropped by 44.23%
The $USD value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 96.98% from $134.01 to $263.97
The BTCBTC value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 253.18% from 0.38 BTC to 1.34 BTC

One month.  Despite price drop of MMXIV/BTC.  Despite BTC value almost cut in half.  Almost double return on investment.

If you doubt any of this, the raw data used to perform these calculations can be found here
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January 16, 2015, 03:20:41 AM
 #2

fred is very smart man


     
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Mortimer452
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January 16, 2015, 06:28:53 AM
 #3

He is indeed.  I will continue to update his progress each week.
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January 23, 2015, 07:28:12 PM
 #4

It has been a week and time to update Fred's progress.  Prices for BTC/USD are taken from the Winkdex and prices for MMXIV/BTC are from the Bittrex daily chart.

BLUE line indicates BTC/USD value expressed in $USD
RED line indicates size of MMXIV wallet expressed in MMXIV
GREEN line indicates $USD value of MMXIV wallet


Based on MMXIV's 2014% annual interest rate, compounded daily, on January 22, 2015 his wallet now contains 161.39 MMXIV, more than EIGHT TIMES the coins he originally purchased.  His ending MMXIV $USD wallet value is $782.27 or BTC3.37

The price of BTC/MMXIV increased by 10%
The price of BTC/USD dropped by 34.24%
The $USD value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 483.74% from $134.01 to $782.27
The BTC value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 528.02% from 0.38 BTC to 3.37 BTC

This is the power of 5.5% daily interest people.

As before, if you doubt any of this, the raw data used to perform these calculations can be found here.
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January 23, 2015, 07:38:54 PM
 #5

How does this coin work?

It offers 100% weekly interest offline?  Huh

How?

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January 23, 2015, 08:00:45 PM
 #6

How does this coin work?

It offers 100% weekly interest offline?  Huh

How?

It is a POS only coin.  2014% annual POS interest compounded daily works out to 5.5% per day.  All you have to do is leave your wallet open with a balance and everything else happens automagically.

Or, you can buy a Snowball and let it do the staking for you.  Read more in the MMXIV ANN thread.
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January 23, 2015, 08:13:16 PM
 #7

How does this coin work?

It offers 100% weekly interest offline?  Huh

How?

It is a POS only coin.  2014% annual POS interest compounded daily works out to 5.5% per day.  All you have to do is leave your wallet open with a balance and everything else happens automagically.

Or, you can buy a Snowball and let it do the staking for you.  Read more in the MMXIV ANN thread.

I thought it offered offline staking?

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January 23, 2015, 08:24:40 PM
 #8

How does this coin work?

It offers 100% weekly interest offline?  Huh

How?

It is a POS only coin.  2014% annual POS interest compounded daily works out to 5.5% per day.  All you have to do is leave your wallet open with a balance and everything else happens automagically.

Or, you can buy a Snowball and let it do the staking for you.  Read more in the MMXIV ANN thread.

I thought it offered offline staking?
   It use to offer that.  No longer available.

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January 23, 2015, 08:45:54 PM
 #9

How does this coin work?

It offers 100% weekly interest offline?  Huh

How?

It is a POS only coin.  2014% annual POS interest compounded daily works out to 5.5% per day.  All you have to do is leave your wallet open with a balance and everything else happens automagically.

Or, you can buy a Snowball and let it do the staking for you.  Read more in the MMXIV ANN thread.

I thought it offered offline staking?

Offline staking was basically a test for the Snowball staking hardware.  The Snowball is a small device that is just about as close to offline staking as you can get.  Fire it up, import your wallet's private key, and it does the staking for you, no need to leave your wallet running all the time.  You can login to the Snowball's web UI to check your balance, or just fire up your wallet occasionally, let it sync and check it that way.
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January 23, 2015, 10:15:16 PM
 #10

Fred is imaginary, but this situation is not hypothetical, this is fact based on real numbers.  The chart below is based on actual BTC/USD values taken from the Winkdex and actual BTC/MMXIV daily highs from Bittrex:

Fred is my homey. We got plans this weekend for a pickup game at the ymca. Imagine that.
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January 29, 2015, 08:37:28 PM
 #11

Price is still holding steady. Fred is getting rich as fuck

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January 30, 2015, 08:39:14 AM
 #12

It has been another week and time to update Fred's progress.  Prices for BTC/USD are taken from the Winkdex and prices for MMXIV/BTC are from the Bittrex daily chart.

BLUE line indicates BTC/USD value expressed in $USD
RED line indicates size of MMXIV wallet expressed in MMXIV
GREEN line indicates $USD value of MMXIV wallet


Based on MMXIV's 2014% annual interest rate, compounded daily, on January 29, 2015 his wallet now contains 222.53 MMXIV, more than ELEVEN TIMES the coins he originally purchased.  His ending MMXIV $USD wallet value is $1,048.72 or BTC4.47

The price of BTC/MMXIV increased by 5.83%
The price of BTC/USD dropped by 33.54%
The $USD value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 682.56% from $134.01 to $1,048.72
The BTC value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 1,077.53% from 0.38 BTC to 4.47 BTC

Fred has now officially reached double digits in return on his money.  His wallet BTC value has increased more than 10x.

As before, if you doubt any of this, the raw data used to perform these calculations can be found here.
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January 31, 2015, 07:53:08 PM
 #13

It has been another week and time to update Fred's progress.  Prices for BTC/USD are taken from the Winkdex and prices for MMXIV/BTC are from the Bittrex daily chart.

BLUE line indicates BTC/USD value expressed in $USD
RED line indicates size of MMXIV wallet expressed in MMXIV
GREEN line indicates $USD value of MMXIV wallet


Based on MMXIV's 2014% annual interest rate, compounded daily, on January 29, 2015 his wallet now contains 222.53 MMXIV, more than ELEVEN TIMES the coins he originally purchased.  His ending MMXIV $USD wallet value is $1,048.72 or BTC4.47

The price of BTC/MMXIV increased by 5.83%
The price of BTC/USD dropped by 33.54%
The $USD value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 682.56% from $134.01 to $1,048.72
The BTC value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 1,077.53% from 0.38 BTC to 4.47 BTC

Fred has now officially reached double digits in return on his money.  His wallet BTC value has increased more than 10x.

As before, if you doubt any of this, the raw data used to perform these calculations can be found here.


Steady profits in a flailing BTC market feels like spotting Bigfoot  Wink

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February 05, 2015, 08:33:10 PM
 #14

Yet another week and time to update Fred's progress.  Prices for BTC/USD are taken from the Winkdex and prices for MMXIV/BTC are from the Bittrex daily chart.

BLUE line indicates BTC/USD value expressed in $USD
RED line indicates size of MMXIV wallet expressed in MMXIV
GREEN line indicates $USD value of MMXIV wallet


Based on MMXIV's 2014% annual interest rate, compounded daily, on February 5, 2015 his wallet now contains 323.71 MMXIV, more than SIXTEEN TIMES the coins he originally purchased.  His ending MMXIV $USD wallet value is $997.06 or BTC4.38

The price of BTC/MMXIV decreased by 28.72%
The price of BTC/USD dropped by 35.51%
The $USD value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 644.02% from $134.01 to $997.06
The BTC value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 1,053.65% from 0.38 BTC to 4.38 BTC

MMXIV price dropped pretty hard this week, but Fred isn't upset about this.  His gains from staking protected his investment from a major loss.  Fred lost a bit of his gains from last week, but he is still over 600% profit in terms of $USD and over 1,000% profit in terms of BTC.

With a wallet full of of 323.71 MMXIV and staking at 5.5% daily, Fred is now earning roughly 18 MMXIV per day in stake.  At current market price, that is is 0.23 BTC worth of MMXIV each and every day.  You can begin to see now how steeply the red line is beginning to curve up - this is the power of compounding interest.

The important thing to take from this is that market price doesn't matter.  Big-money investors don't care about price, they earn on percentages.  The bottom line is, to make money on MMXIV, the market price must decrease less than 5.5% per day.  That's all you need to care about.  If the price stays the same, or goes up, or even if it decreases 4% per day, you're making money.

As before, if you doubt any of this, the raw data used to perform these calculations can be found here.
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February 05, 2015, 08:50:19 PM
 #15

well written and excellent in theory, but you seem to avoid the fact that if there isn't demand (buy orders) for Fred to be able to exit at that profit, this investment won't be profitable.  With such a huge %Pos, MMXIV is a guess for when and who will dump first. the price will keep falling while the total coins is increasing drastically.
maybe i'm wrong though, if so, can you explain?  maybe it's only me, but i see this well-thought thread as a way to create *demand* to help "Fred" to exit, or to help him selling his new generated coins from Pos% until he meets his ROI...
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February 05, 2015, 09:59:08 PM
 #16

well written and excellent in theory, but you seem to avoid the fact that if there isn't demand (buy orders) for Fred to be able to exit at that profit, this investment won't be profitable.  With such a huge %Pos, MMXIV is a guess for when and who will dump first. the price will keep falling while the total coins is increasing drastically.
maybe i'm wrong though, if so, can you explain?  maybe it's only me, but i see this well-thought thread as a way to create *demand* to help "Fred" to exit, or to help him selling his new generated coins from Pos% until he meets his ROI...

True, volume would need to increase from current levels to exit in any reasonable amount of time without crashing the market.  If Fred were ready to start cashing in, he would have to let them out slowly or end up reducing his total profit by crashing the price.

The upside to this is that, as he sold his coins over the course of several days, he would continue to generate stake on the unsold coins each day, which would help make up for any potential profit reduction.

If/when volume picks up - and it has significantly from the start of this thread - it would be easier to exit and realize your gains.
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February 12, 2015, 07:48:06 AM
 #17

Update February 12, 2015
Let's see how Fred is doing after another week.  Prices for BTC/USD are taken from the Winkdex and prices for MMXIV/BTC are from the Bittrex daily chart.

BLUE line indicates BTC/USD value expressed in $USD
RED line indicates size of MMXIV wallet expressed in MMXIV
GREEN line indicates $USD value of MMXIV wallet


Based on MMXIV's 2014% annual interest rate, compounded daily, on February 11, 2015 his wallet now contains 470.90 MMXIV, more than TWENTY THREE TIMES the coins he originally purchased.  His ending MMXIV $USD wallet value is $1012.32 or BTC4.61

The price of BTC/MMXIV decreased by 48.42%
The price of BTC/USD dropped by 37.80%
The $USD value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 655.40% from $134.01 to $1012.32
The BTC value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 1,578.19% from 0.38 BTC to 4.61 BTC

Due to MMXIV's powerful 5.5% daily compounding, Fred has already completely recovered from MMXIV's 50% price drop in the past two weeks.  Just look a few posts above to his Jan 28 update. 

2 weeks ago the price of MMXIV was 0.02, today it is 0.009, yet his wallet BTC value has increased, and his wallet $USD value has only dropped a few dollars.

As before, if you doubt any of this, the raw data used to perform these calculations can be found here.
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February 12, 2015, 11:44:38 PM
 #18

Update February 12, 2015
Let's see how Fred is doing after another week.  Prices for BTC/USD are taken from the Winkdex and prices for MMXIV/BTC are from the Bittrex daily chart.

BLUE line indicates BTC/USD value expressed in $USD
RED line indicates size of MMXIV wallet expressed in MMXIV
GREEN line indicates $USD value of MMXIV wallet


Based on MMXIV's 2014% annual interest rate, compounded daily, on February 11, 2015 his wallet now contains 470.90 MMXIV, more than TWENTY THREE TIMES the coins he originally purchased.  His ending MMXIV $USD wallet value is $1012.32 or BTC4.61

The price of BTC/MMXIV decreased by 48.42%
The price of BTC/USD dropped by 37.80%
The $USD value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 655.40% from $134.01 to $1012.32
The BTC value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 1,578.19% from 0.38 BTC to 4.61 BTC

Due to MMXIV's powerful 5.5% daily compounding, Fred has already completely recovered from MMXIV's 50% price drop in the past two weeks.  Just look a few posts above to his Jan 28 update. 

2 weeks ago the price of MMXIV was 0.02, today it is 0.009, yet his wallet BTC value has increased, and his wallet $USD value has only dropped a few dollars.

As before, if you doubt any of this, the raw data used to perform these calculations can be found here.

That red curve is about to hit the sky

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Phosphorous
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February 19, 2015, 01:42:17 AM
 #19

Time for an update.
Mortimer452
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February 23, 2015, 11:08:43 PM
 #20

Update February 23, 2015
Sorry for the delay, update is below.  Prices for BTC/USD are taken from the Winkdex and prices for MMXIV/BTC are from the Bittrex daily chart.

BLUE line indicates BTC/USD value expressed in $USD
RED line indicates size of MMXIV wallet expressed in MMXIV
GREEN line indicates $USD value of MMXIV wallet


Based on MMXIV's 2014% annual interest rate, compounded daily, on February 18, 2015 his wallet now contains 685.0 MMXIV, more than THIRTY FOUR TIMES the coins he originally purchased.  His ending MMXIV $USD wallet value is $555.81 or BTC2.39

The price of BTC/MMXIV decreased by 81.66%
The price of BTC/USD dropped by 33.96%
The $USD value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 314.75% from $134.01 to $555.81
The BTC value of Fred's MMXIV wallet increased by 528.07% from 0.38 BTC to 2.39 BTC

MMXIV's market price has dropped significantly in the past two weeks.  Thankfully, MMXIV's powerful 5.5% daily compounding has prevented further loss - in fact, Fred is still ahead over 300% from his initial investment.  He is far, far better off than he would have been if he'd just left that BTC in his wallet.

As before, if you doubt any of this, the raw data used to perform these calculations can be found here.
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