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Author Topic: Dead Cat Bounce?  (Read 913 times)
Hyena
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January 16, 2015, 08:06:19 AM
 #1

I just want to hear some plain old chart speculation, so here's the chart:



What do you think? Is it a dead cat bounce? I've seen those bounces many times in the past but never acted upon it. This time I did sell some BTC at 220$ out of curiosity. According to the Law of Conservation of Irony, it should not be a dead cat bounce (because this time I acted upon an assumption that it is).

Here's my line of logic: last time when we had this bear whale battle then it was different because there was probably some actual buying pressure at 270. This time I don't recall we had any crazy price action at 150$. But since it was such a violent drop I would think that it was something more than "normal" volatility. Whoever did it would profit from it if the price ended up lower than 150$, right? So should we expect more to follow?

Or perhaps if it truly is manipulation then we could see an upwards spike to 300+ prices as we have seen before. Those prices won't last long though.

I think the overall thinking has now changed to bearish. I mean, look at even this post. It's rather bearish, don't you think? Cheesy
Interestingly the buy/sell walls look different than what they were some time ago. Right now it seems that it doesn't take much to make the price go up but previously the buy and sell side walls were more or less equal.


Over the past months I have started to think about a possibility that events happen to deliver people/participants the experience they need. I have come to a conclusion that if you are buying/selling cryptocurrencies for the wrong reasons then you will lose no matter what the true potential of those currencies is.

Right now it seems that many people interested in Bitcoin don't even know/care how it works. A slow and painful downfall is a perfect scenario to "shake out the weak hands". An even better scenario would be if Bitcoin went down and stayed down, never to significantly rise again. That way early adopters would still remain in profit and all the others would be in a loss.

The round 2 would be that some other cryptocurrency gains great value over a short period of time. The get-rich-quickers lose that opportunity since there are so many altcoins out there and the only reasonable way to invest is to carefully review them and select out the promising ones.

Now that people more or less know what cryptocurrencies are, they will find new uses for them. There's no doubt. However, at some point we all get sick and tired of the volatility. Of course at first it was fun to make good profit from a small investment but times have changed. It's time to start using the technology in real life business scenarios. Even if you think that eventually BTC would stabilize and no longer be volatile it doesn't mean the economy is willing to wait that. There's demand for volatility free cryptocurrencies right now and whoever solves the problem will dethrone Bitcoin. I personally bet on NuBits. The fact that 1 NBT is always 1 USD is so precious that sooner or later online merchants/service providers will switch to using them instead of bitcoin.

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Amph
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January 16, 2015, 08:17:30 AM
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probably yes like the one happened before this dump
Hyena
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January 16, 2015, 08:30:43 AM
 #3

probably yes like the one happened before this dump

What scares me is the situation where everyone starts to expect dead cat bounces. What would happen then? The crashes would get even deeper and bounces would shrink into one giant crash to the bottom? Cheesy

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January 16, 2015, 10:31:01 AM
 #4

probably yes like the one happened before this dump

What scares me is the situation where everyone starts to expect dead cat bounces. What would happen then? The crashes would get even deeper and bounces would shrink into one giant crash to the bottom? Cheesy

If everyone expects them then someone will trade against it bringing pain to those who position for it..
shirkan
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January 16, 2015, 10:42:39 AM
 #5

I just want to hear some plain old chart speculation, so here's the chart:



What do you think? Is it a dead cat bounce? I've seen those bounces many times in the past but never acted upon it. This time I did sell some BTC at 220$ out of curiosity. According to the Law of Conservation of Irony, it should not be a dead cat bounce (because this time I acted upon an assumption that it is).

Here's my line of logic: last time when we had this bear whale battle then it was different because there was probably some actual buying pressure at 270. This time I don't recall we had any crazy price action at 150$. But since it was such a violent drop I would think that it was something more than "normal" volatility. Whoever did it would profit from it if the price ended up lower than 150$, right? So should we expect more to follow?

Or perhaps if it truly is manipulation then we could see an upwards spike to 300+ prices as we have seen before. Those prices won't last long though.

I think the overall thinking has now changed to bearish. I mean, look at even this post. It's rather bearish, don't you think? Cheesy
Interestingly the buy/sell walls look different than what they were some time ago. Right now it seems that it doesn't take much to make the price go up but previously the buy and sell side walls were more or less equal.


Over the past months I have started to think about a possibility that events happen to deliver people/participants the experience they need. I have come to a conclusion that if you are buying/selling cryptocurrencies for the wrong reasons then you will lose no matter what the true potential of those currencies is.

Right now it seems that many people interested in Bitcoin don't even know/care how it works. A slow and painful downfall is a perfect scenario to "shake out the weak hands". An even better scenario would be if Bitcoin went down and stayed down, never to significantly rise again. That way early adopters would still remain in profit and all the others would be in a loss.

The round 2 would be that some other cryptocurrency gains great value over a short period of time. The get-rich-quickers lose that opportunity since there are so many altcoins out there and the only reasonable way to invest is to carefully review them and select out the promising ones.

Now that people more or less know what cryptocurrencies are, they will find new uses for them. There's no doubt. However, at some point we all get sick and tired of the volatility. Of course at first it was fun to make good profit from a small investment but times have changed. It's time to start using the technology in real life business scenarios. Even if you think that eventually BTC would stabilize and no longer be volatile it doesn't mean the economy is willing to wait that. There's demand for volatility free cryptocurrencies right now and whoever solves the problem will dethrone Bitcoin. I personally bet on NuBits. The fact that 1 NBT is always 1 USD is so precious that sooner or later online merchants/service providers will switch to using them instead of bitcoin.

Why would you want to tie cryptocurrency to FIAT? Finally, there is an alternative to rotten fiat money!!

Startups like Bitreserve and alike will hedge the volatility issue for vendors and users. However, once our current financial system blows up for good, no one will ever care how much US Dollar one Bitcoin is worth. One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. Can't wait to find out what purchasing power comes with it, though Smiley

OR...Bitcoin will fail.

Imho Bitcoin (right now) is a gamble with increasing odds over time.




Hyena
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January 16, 2015, 10:47:01 AM
 #6

Why would you want to tie cryptocurrency to FIAT? Finally, there is an alternative to rotten fiat money!!

Startups like Bitreserve and alike will hedge the volatility issue for vendors and users. However, once our current financial system blows up for good, no one will ever care how much US Dollar one Bitcoin is worth. One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. Can't wait to find out what purchasing power comes with it, though Smiley

OR...Bitcoin will fail.

Imho Bitcoin (right now) is a gamble with increasing odds over time.

Because FIAT is not so volatile. If at any point USD becomes too weak or volatile and it is no longer reasonable to keep nubits pegged to USD the peg can be dropped. As simple as that. It's up to NuShareholders to choose what the peg is. When USD becomes worthless, NuShareholders will simply choose another peg. The whole point of it is the separation of currency function from the store of value function.

shirkan
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January 16, 2015, 10:53:25 AM
 #7

Why would you want to tie cryptocurrency to FIAT? Finally, there is an alternative to rotten fiat money!!

Startups like Bitreserve and alike will hedge the volatility issue for vendors and users. However, once our current financial system blows up for good, no one will ever care how much US Dollar one Bitcoin is worth. One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. Can't wait to find out what purchasing power comes with it, though Smiley

OR...Bitcoin will fail.

Imho Bitcoin (right now) is a gamble with increasing odds over time.

Because FIAT is not so volatile. If at any point USD becomes too weak or volatile and it is no longer reasonable to keep nubits pegged to USD the peg can be dropped. As simple as that. It's up to NuShareholders to choose what the peg is. When USD becomes worthless, NuShareholders will simply choose another peg. The whole point of it is the separation of currency function from the store of value function.

Sounds as simple as creating money (value) by printing some more.

Hyena
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January 16, 2015, 11:14:02 AM
 #8

Sounds as simple as creating money (value) by printing some more.

Not so simple actually. It's simple when demand exceeds supply constantly. Then the NuShareholders would just print more nubits to satisfy the demand. However, when the supply exceeds demand things go tricky.

You can park your nubits for interest, for example. That's an artificial means to reduce supply. You cannot use your parked nubits for a certain period of time but after that you will receive interest for the parking period. This should motivate people not to sell at times when supply exceeds demand. Also, the nushareholders have enough funds to simply buy all the excess nubits from the market and keep the price pegged to a desired value.

azguard
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January 16, 2015, 01:00:03 PM
 #9

probably yes like the one happened before this dump

What scares me is the situation where everyone starts to expect dead cat bounces. What would happen then? The crashes would get even deeper and bounces would shrink into one giant crash to the bottom? Cheesy

Dont be so scared it only graphic or speculation. We all speculate i think what is good for us. Only one thing remain and that is until something big happen price will be up and down.



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Q7
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January 16, 2015, 01:04:12 PM
 #10

The recovery that we saw is probably just a price correction with some investors taking profit to buy back. The sentiment right now is still pretty bearish.

shirkan
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January 16, 2015, 06:37:10 PM
 #11

Sounds as simple as creating money (value) by printing some more.

Not so simple actually. It's simple when demand exceeds supply constantly. Then the NuShareholders would just print more nubits to satisfy the demand. However, when the supply exceeds demand things go tricky.

You can park your nubits for interest, for example. That's an artificial means to reduce supply. You cannot use your parked nubits for a certain period of time but after that you will receive interest for the parking period. This should motivate people not to sell at times when supply exceeds demand. Also, the nushareholders have enough funds to simply buy all the excess nubits from the market and keep the price pegged to a desired value.

seems like a great concept!!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=926934.0

Hyena
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January 16, 2015, 07:15:06 PM
 #12


You honestly think that the Nu team hasn't thought of BTC crashing to ashes?

Read this topic: https://discuss.nubits.com/t/when-bitcoin-crashes/1132

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