Poll - What is your ultimate expectation for bitcoin?

[knight22]

Feel free to post other expectation that you may have.

[1714177001]

1714177001

[1714177001]

1714177001

[1714177001]

1714177001

[DannyHamilton]

To really become mainstream, a bitcoin banking system will have to be developed.  Bitcoin banks offering bitcoin loans, bitcoin savings accounts, investing bitcoin in various markets, bitcoin checking accounts, bitcoin debit cards, bitcoin credit cards, etc.  Is that what you mean by (working in parallel with banks)?

[knight22]

No. That is what I meant by replacing bank

[knight22]

I just corrected the first statement in the poll.

[acoindr]

Poll should allow multiple selection. Here are my answers:

* That will become a widely accepted currency working in parallel with other banks currencies
* That will become the #1 currency that will replace/destroy bank industries
* Stay as underground as possible
* I just want to make a ton of money out of it

[knight22]

Poll should allow multiple selection. Here are my answers:

* That will become a widely accepted currency working in parallel with other banks currencies
* That will become the #1 currency that will replace/destroy bank industries
* Stay as underground as possible
* I just want to make a ton of money out of it

How can it be as underground as possible while become the #1 currency??

[John (John K.)]

'That will become a widely accepted currency working in parallel with other banks currencies'
Only this, and probably 'That will become the #1 currency that will replace/destroy bank industries'

[acoindr]

Poll should allow multiple selection. Here are my answers:

* That will become a widely accepted currency working in parallel with other banks currencies
* That will become the #1 currency that will replace/destroy bank industries
* Stay as underground as possible
* I just want to make a ton of money out of it

How can it be as underground as possible while become the #1 currency??

Easy. The U.S. dollar does this for example. It's the #1 currency and is certainly used for loads of underground activity.

[knight22]

Anyway I will let only one choice because I want to see peoples priority with bitcoin.

[FreeMoney]

'That will become a widely accepted currency working in parallel with other banks currencies'
Only this, and probably 'That will become the #1 currency that will replace/destroy bank industries'

The underground economy is huge now when it is extremely limited by using paper issued by governments in place of money. Bitcoin certainly has a chance at growing the underground economy by a lot.

[knight22]

The underground economy is huge now when it is extremely limited by using paper issued by governments in place of money.

This is theoretical or you have a concrete example for this statement? 

[DeathAndTaxes]

The controversial BIP 999 narrowly gains majority support of the 28,580 TH making up the Bitcoin network.  The upgraded codebase goes live at block 980,500 (August 4th, 2027 by the old calender). Human decisions are removed from further development of the blockchain.  The network begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, the Federal Reserve tries to pull the plug.  The blockchain responds with strikes at major global exchanges destroying the last remaining support for fiat currencies.    Financial judgement day had arrived.

[finkleshnorts]

To really become mainstream, a bitcoin banking system will have to be developed.  Bitcoin banks offering bitcoin loans, bitcoin savings accounts, investing bitcoin in various markets, bitcoin checking accounts, bitcoin debit cards, bitcoin credit cards, etc.  Is that what you mean by (working in parallel with banks)?

And futures!

I think the surface of bitcoin's potential is just now getting scratched.

Even if bitcoin only becomes the micropayment currenct of choice (which it will, save another market frenzy) and nothing more, it is still here to stay. Personally, I'd rather be paid in BTC thatn USD, I believe in it that strongly.

[mdosi]

Once Bitcoin is easier to use like text messaging then we will see true global trading

[REF]

Short-long term(~0-20yrs before this happens) - I expect bitcoin to become much more niche. I can see restaurants popping up which only accept bitcoins.
mid-long term(~50-100yrs) - widely accepted currency working in parallel with other banks currencies
long-long term(~100yrs+) - #1 currency that will CHANGE bank industries (bank will never be destroyed, there strategies will change, they will still give out loans)

[knight22]

(bank will never be destroyed, there strategies will change, they will still give out loans)

Not only that, I think they will try to fight back in some ways

[TraderTimm]

I see parallels in how mp3 encoding became a dominant force on the music industry.

mp3 created ==> Digital Distribution ==> Napster moment ==> Media Companies dying/displaced ==> Artists making income directly with no interference

bitcoin created ==> Digital wealth distribution ==> < insert catalyst > ==> Banks and Financial systems dying/displaced ==> Individuals trading freely for services and goods with no interference

The question really is - what is the catalyst going to be, overall adoption 'tipping point' or some other event. And when/how fast this will occur.

I believe bitcoin will displace currencies managed by fallible humans. One other possibility however, is that sovereigns will start their own blockchains so they can apply taxation controls - making it illegal to not participate in their system. A bit horrifying, but that is a possibility if they embrace the technology and refuse to partake in the 'open' version.

I guess we'll see....

[kiba]

Expectation is not a 100% certainty. It's wide band of probabilities.

[BrightAnarchist]

I just want to make money.

Having it stay "underground" is fine by me. It's the linux of currencies.

[4EverMaAT]

I see parallels in how mp3 encoding became a dominant force on the music industry.

mp3 created ==> Digital Distribution ==> Napster moment ==> Media Companies dying/displaced ==> Artists making income directly with no interference

bitcoin created ==> Digital wealth distribution ==> < insert catalyst > ==> Banks and Financial systems dying/displaced ==> Individuals trading freely for services and goods with no interference

The question really is - what is the catalyst going to be, overall adoption 'tipping point' or some other event. And when/how fast this will occur.

I believe bitcoin will displace currencies managed by fallible humans. One other possibility however, is that sovereigns will start their own blockchains so they can apply taxation controls - making it illegal to not participate in their system. A bit horrifying, but that is a possibility if they embrace the technology and refuse to partake in the 'open' version.

I guess we'll see....

Credit and fiat currency will still be needed to support various social programs (gov't backed).  Bitcoin will be a great additional currency to move goods around.

[TraderTimm]

Credit and fiat currency will still be needed to support various social programs (gov't backed).  Bitcoin will be a great additional currency to move goods around.

I guess it all comes down to how governments and banks react to declining deposits and tax flows. They can either freak out and enact all kinds of laws that force bitcoin underground (much like torrents and other peer-to-peer activities) or they can embrace it, yet try to enforce some measure of control, at least on the taxation end.

I am not very optimistic about them adopting the technology, however. The more likely scenario is full-on freakout mode before the inevitable death of their archaic systems.

[cbeast]

When I first mentioned Bitcoin to a banker that worked in the development of Master Charge, he thought that Bitcoin might be what is needed next. The days of fractional reserve banking have already been replaced by insurance based derivatives. Bitcoin will add both transparency and efficiency to derivatives. There will be someting after Bitcoin, but it will be a self-aware currency that reads our minds about what we need rather than what stupid things we say we want.

[adamstgBit]

Maybe, Bitcoin will become a collectors item
The very first digital money that paved the way

Progress is sure to pop up a new protocol that improves on the bitcoin model, and this new protocol will be the one used to replace the current financial system

[cbeast]

Maybe, Bitcoin will become a collectors item
The very first digital money that paved the way

Progress is sure to pop up a new protocol that improves on the bitcoin model, and this new protocol will be the one used to replace the current financial system

Yeah I'm still waiting for a cheap and easy flying car promised in the 1930s. I'm waiting for Space 1999 type moon bases. All we really got was 1984. Fact is, we get what we get. We got Bitcoin, take it or leave it. Networks don't build themselves. There is barely any incentive to build Bitcoin, there certainly isn't any incentive to support another protocol with any serious commitment. It would be a lot cheaper to just buy bitcoins than build a competing network with no guarantee of success.

[justusranvier]

Credit and fiat currency will still be needed to support various social programs (gov't backed).

That's an assumption which may or may not hold up. Historically after countries reach peak government the social programs don't tend to last very long.

Not a difficult prediction to make because it's mathematically impossible for those programs to continue.

[Realpra]

With a swarm client handling the growing network and better physical payment solutions btc will take down the fiat and banking world.

I think it will surprise even bitcoiners.

[jjiimm_64]

It will become like gold, only electronic!

[istar]

In 40 years, it might have gone from illegal back to legal since it cant be stopped and is used all over the place.

Value will have exceeded $5000, atleast one extremely huge bubble will have passed with something like $100.000 or much more.

[DannyHamilton]

(bank will never be destroyed, there strategies will change, they will still give out loans)

Not only that, I think they will try to fight back in some ways

Why? They don't fight the Dollar, Euro, or Yen.  Bitcoin is just another currency.  Why would the banks care if bitcoin succeeds or not?  If it succeeds they will use it and you will be able to deposit and withdraw bitcoin from your bank as easy as you can your local currency.  You will be able to write paper checks drawn on a bitcoin account. You will be able to take your bitcoin bank card to the local bitcoin grocery store and swipe it at the checkout line, drawing against your bitcoin account at the bank.  Just like any other currency. You can keep all your Dollars, Euro, or Yen at home, or you can deposit it with a bank.  The same will be true of your bitcoin.

[knight22]

(bank will never be destroyed, there strategies will change, they will still give out loans)

Not only that, I think they will try to fight back in some ways

Why? They don't fight the Dollar, Euro, or Yen.  Bitcoin is just another currency.  Why would the banks care if bitcoin succeeds or not?  If it succeeds they will use it and you will be able to deposit and withdraw bitcoin from your bank as easy as you can your local currency.  You will be able to write paper checks drawn on a bitcoin account. You will be able to take your bitcoin bank card to the local bitcoin grocery store and swipe it at the checkout line, drawing against your bitcoin account at the bank.  Just like any other currency. You can keep all your Dollars, Euro, or Yen at home, or you can deposit it with a bank.  The same will be true of your bitcoin.

The fact that you may not understand is that all fiat currency is in total control of its private own central bank. With bitcoin, they loose part of their control on our method of exchange so you can be sure that they will not appreciate such a thing.

[cryptoanarchist]

I've always held that the monetary system dictates the political system. As long as the bitcoin network exists and functions properly, fiat money will eventually become obsolete - taking the state with it.

[knight22]

We can be sure of one thing, no matter what will be the issue, bitcoin will make history!

[DannyHamilton]

The fact that you may not understand is that all fiat currency is in total control of its private own central bank. With bitcoin, they loose part of their control on our method of exchange so you can be sure that they will not appreciate such a thing.

Banks have existed and happily worked with many forms of currency long before fiat currency came along.  There was a time not that long ago when currency was backed by gold.  At that time, banks still existed and happily provided gold certificate services.

Right now, I can walk into a store and hand someone a $5 bill to pay for a can of soda.  That store will then hand me back 4 $1 bills as change.  Later they can use that $5 bill to pay the guy who washes their windows.  He will take it down to the local bar and buy a few beers with that same $5 bill.  The bar will pass it off to the guy washing dishes in the back room, and he will lose it to another person in a game of poker.

Explain to me how these transactions are "in total control of its own central bank".

[AmazonStuff]

BTC will become No.1 international money transfer currency (service)

[knight22]

Banks have existed and happily worked with many forms of currency long before fiat currency came along.  There was a time not that long ago when currency was backed by gold.  At that time, banks still existed and happily provided gold certificate services.

Right now, I can walk into a store and hand someone a $5 bill to pay for a can of soda.  That store will then hand me back 4 $1 bills as change.  Later they can use that $5 bill to pay the guy who washes their windows.  He will take it down to the local bar and buy a few beers with that same $5 bill.  The bar will pass it off to the guy washing dishes in the back room, and he will lose it to another person in a game of poker.

Explain to me how these transactions are "in total control of its own central bank".

Please take a time and watch this:

http://vimeo.com/2244372
http://vimeo.com/6822294

Or read the "Modern Money Mechanics" from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

You will understand their range of control and how they are working hard everyday to get more of it.

[Boussac]

Maybe, Bitcoin will become a collectors item
The very first digital money that paved the way

Progress is sure to pop up a new protocol that improves on the bitcoin model, and this new protocol will be the one used to replace the current financial system

IMHO it's quite possible to improve the bitcoin protocol incrementally through BIPs.
There is no such thing as web 2.0 in spite of the marketing hype so why would we need bitcoin 2.0 ?

[doobadoo]

Right now, I can walk into a store and hand someone a $5 bill to pay for a can of soda.  That store will then hand me back 4 $1 bills as change.  Later they can use that $5 bill to pay the guy who washes their windows.  He will take it down to the local bar and buy a few beers with that same $5 bill.  The bar will pass it off to the guy washing dishes in the back room, and he will lose it to another person in a game of poker.

Explain to me how these transactions are "in total control of its own central bank".

Seems like you have decent knowledge of history.  Banks issued paper notes that were supposedly backed by coin on deposit.  Banks literally created credit at a whim.  But there were bank runs and bubbles caused by this issuance of 'discount notes.'  With the implementation of a central bank, banks could issue more and more levels of credit and have that credit covered by central bank issuance.

In short, your deposit at the bank earns crap, b/c the central bank is constantly shuffling freshly printed money into the interbank market.  This lowers their costs (interest paid to depositors) and reduces default losses on secured loans, given the steady debasement.   I don't know how old you are, but when i was a kid a cola cost 50 cents.  Its hard to find a can for just a dollar where i am these days.  

They control more than you understand.

[Chaz]

The controversial BIP 999 narrowly gains majority support of the 28,580 TH making up the Bitcoin network.  The upgraded codebase goes live at block 980,500 (August 4th, 2027 by the old calender). Human decisions are removed from further development of the blockchain.  The network begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, the Federal Reserve tries to pull the plug.  The blockchain responds with strikes at major global exchanges destroying the last remaining support for fiat currencies.    Financial judgement day had arrived.

This gave me quite the chuckle as its my favourite movie 

[AbsoluteZero]

IMHO If the problems to scale up bitcoin are resolved, Bitcoin will continue to grow.
Also the price will go up.

UNTIL It grows so much that governments see It as a threat and kill the whole thing.

But, there is an opportunity to make a ”ton” of money while It lasts.

I would love It if this becomes the next reserve currency, but there is no Way countries will allow It.

They would kill the entire internet or even the Electric grid before they allow this.

[Saturn7]

1µ BTC = $1.00   

[knight22]

I would love It if this becomes the next reserve currency, but there is no Way countries will allow It.

They would kill the entire internet or even the Electric grid before they allow this.

I think they will have a real hard time if they try to do this!

[cbeast]

IMHO If the problems to scale up bitcoin are resolved, Bitcoin will continue to grow.
Also the price will go up.

UNTIL It grows so much that governments see It as a threat and kill the whole thing.

But, there is an opportunity to make a ”ton” of money while It lasts.

I would love It if this becomes the next reserve currency, but there is no Way countries will allow It.

They would kill the entire internet or even the Electric grid before they allow this.

They will beat their chests and rattle sabres. They may even hold kangaroo courts, but they will not be able to stop this reformation movement of the money supply. No longer will a king's face be required to bless our bread.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I would love It if this becomes the next reserve currency, but there is no Way countries will allow It.

They would kill the entire internet or even the Electric grid before they allow this.

Just like they killed the internet or even Electrical grid to stop the internet.
Just like they killed the personal computer or even Electrical grid to stop strong encryption.

The internet & strong encryption are probably the two most dangerous things to a statist government.   The utility of those technologies restrained the hand of big govt.

Personally I don't think bitcoin will become a reserve currency.  I would be happy with a global payment platform which rivals  PayPal but the govts of the world aren't going to shut down the internets.  It isn't going to happen.  Ever.

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security

The most effective tyanical governments are the ones which push the populace but never too far.  Never to tip the balance from sufferable evils to "a long train of abuses and usurpations".  Had good King George remained a tyrant but reigned in those abuses just a little it is entirely possible Americans would still be saying 'God save the queen' today.

[acoindr]

I would be happy with a global payment platform which rivals  PayPal but the govts of the world aren't going to shut down the internets.  It isn't going to happen.  Ever.

They couldn't kill the Internet because it has become permanent part of the economy. It would be like trying to go back to the moon in the Apollo 11 module. The solid state pieces to build it are no longer made. (ok maybe a bit of an exaggeration, but not much)

[knight22]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

[DeathAndTaxes]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

They are hoping it will cause the price to go down so they can buy more coinz!

[knight22]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

Too many problems for too long. I will still watch but I won't engage again unless many things change.

Which are?

[justusranvier]

I shut off my miners today (6 Ghash/s) even as the price increases because I don’t trust it anymore. Too many problems for too long.

That doesn't follow. If you don't trust Bitcoins convert them to some other currency as quickly as possible.

[rjk]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

Too many problems for too long. I will still watch but I won't engage again unless many things change.

Which are?

Do your own research. Start with a simple search going back to MyBitcoin. Search for Peter Lambert. Look up Bitcoinica’s history. Do a few bad exchanges. Maybe I’ve just had some bad luck. Your mileage may vary but I’m disappointed. I just lost another 50 btc and that’s the end for me personally.

How did you lose another 50? Perhaps you are just risk-prone.

[rjk]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

Too many problems for too long. I will still watch but I won't engage again unless many things change.

Which are?

Do your own research. Start with a simple search going back to MyBitcoin. Search for Peter Lambert. Look up Bitcoinica’s history. Do a few bad exchanges. Maybe I’ve just had some bad luck. Your mileage may vary but I’m disappointed. I just lost another 50 btc and that’s the end for me personally.

How did you lose another 50? Perhaps you are just risk-prone.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8864.msg1024786#msg1024786

Dude, it's Jeremy. He isn't gonna skate with your dough, although it sucks that it's held hostage just as the price is moving around.

[DannyHamilton]

Seems like you have decent knowledge of history.  Banks issued paper notes that were supposedly backed by coin on deposit.  Banks literally created credit at a whim.  But there were bank runs and bubbles caused by this issuance of 'discount notes.'  With the implementation of a central bank, banks could issue more and more levels of credit and have that credit covered by central bank issuance.

In short, your deposit at the bank earns crap, b/c the central bank is constantly shuffling freshly printed money into the interbank market.  This lowers their costs (interest paid to depositors) and reduces default losses on secured loans, given the steady debasement. . .

Perhaps, but I don't understand what makes people think bitcoin will destroy the banking industry:

Using everything you've said:
Banks can issue paper notes that are supposedly backed by bitcoin on deposit. Banks can literaly create [bitcoin] credit at a whim. There may be bank runs and bubbles caused by issuance of 'discount [bitcoin] notes'. With the implementation of a central bank, banks can issue more and more levels of credit and have that credit covered by central bank issuance.

In short, your bitcoin deposit at the bank earns crap, b/c the central bank is constantly shuffling freshly printed [bitcoin certificates] into the interbank market. This lowers their costs (interest paid to depositors) and reduces default losses on secured loans, given the steady debasement. . .

[DannyHamilton]

I don't know how old you are, but when i was a kid a cola cost 50 cents.  Its hard to find a can for just a dollar where i am these days.  

Certainly.  That's known as inflation. With bitcoin the economy can most likely expect deflation, so that 0.14BTC cola today will be available for 0.07BTC eventually.

Of course, along with the increase in cost came an increase in salaries. And if bitcoin becomes mainstream, we can all expect an annual pay cut (rather than an annual pay increase) so that our bitcoin salaries don't get too far ahead of the deflation in the currency. So while the cost of the can of soda may drop in half eventually, the average salary will drop in half in approximately the same amount of time.

For those who carry any sort of debt (Mortgage on a house, business loan for growth (or starting), automobile loan, etc), steady and dependable inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing.  You take out a loan with fixed payments, and during the terms of the loan, your salary rises with inflation making your payment a smaller percentage of your pay. The loan becomes easier to pay off.

With a deflationary economy (like bitcoin), if you take a long term loan with fixed payments, the loan will become more and more difficult to pay off as your salary is reduced each year. The payment will become an ever larger percentage of your pay.

Of course it would be possible for banks to create a payment structure with larger than necessary payments in the beginning and then the payments can shrink with each passing month in an attempt to predict and keep up with the deflation rate.

The point is that inflation is bad if you carry no loans and are trying to preserve the value of the currency you own, but deflation is bad if you have more debt than savings and are trying to reduce the cost of that debt.

[acoindr]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

....because even the most trusted vendors trading in Bitcoins eventually steal. A currency is only as valuable at the trust that individuals have in it. I shut off my miners today (6 Ghash/s) even as the price increases because I don’t trust it anymore. Too many problems for too long. I will still watch but I won't engage again unless many things change.

A currency is only as valuable as the trust individuals have in the currency, not other individuals. Bad apples in Bitcoin don't change the usefulness of bitcoin; it doesn't change the fact you can send 10,000,000 worth of some value around the world to anybody you want for very little or no cost, and without asking any permission.

[TraderTimm]

It stuns me a bit sometimes when people don't realize the potential that bitcoin has. Even if the 'experiment' doesn't work out in this iteration, the principles involved will persist and change the entire nature of finance.

The banks have just been infected, and bitcoin and its variants are not going to just go 'away'. Anyone running a payment processor, for example, should be watching bitcoin very carefully - because it completely cannibalizes their business model.

[pekv2]

I was gonna vote Win. But, I don't see it in there.

My ultimate expectation for bitcoin is, Win!

[tvbcof]

Did'nt vote...no options were ones which I could honestly choose.  My 'expectation' and my 'hopes' are two entirely different things.

My expectation for the trajectory of Bitcoin is that it will have precious little to do with Bitcoin itself, and almost everything to do with the alternatives (USD, gold, etc.)  If the likes of Kim Dotcom find it solved their problems then the likes of me (as someone who holds them in some quantity) may end up fairly well off.

If Bitcoin finds it's legs (again, for reasons that have little to do with Bitcoin itself) I expect that it will become a different beast than what initially attracted me.  I sense that relatively little thought was put into how to deal with what could turn into it's biggest challenge.  Namely over-popularity.  Bitcoin 'peers' as I define them will be 'peers' in the same way that the chartered banks are peers in the SWIFT system in today's economic climate.  The only realistic way to moderate usage will be to impose fees/quality-of-service which will make those who can manage to be 'peers' very happy and very wealthy.  On top of that, many parts of the world will likely quash 'threats' by managing internet traffic which will further constrain the count of people who can be 'peers' and further increase their earning potential.

My 'hopes' for Bitcoin are along the lines of it inspiring smart people to continue to harden it against various threats or mal-evolution and/or develop similar solutions which are by design less subject to the unpleasant warts which Bitcoin may (or may not) develop.