Poll - What is your ultimate expectation for bitcoin?

[knight22]

I would love It if this becomes the next reserve currency, but there is no Way countries will allow It.

They would kill the entire internet or even the Electric grid before they allow this.

I think they will have a real hard time if they try to do this!

[cbeast]

IMHO If the problems to scale up bitcoin are resolved, Bitcoin will continue to grow.
Also the price will go up.

UNTIL It grows so much that governments see It as a threat and kill the whole thing.

But, there is an opportunity to make a ”ton” of money while It lasts.

I would love It if this becomes the next reserve currency, but there is no Way countries will allow It.

They would kill the entire internet or even the Electric grid before they allow this.

They will beat their chests and rattle sabres. They may even hold kangaroo courts, but they will not be able to stop this reformation movement of the money supply. No longer will a king's face be required to bless our bread.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I would love It if this becomes the next reserve currency, but there is no Way countries will allow It.

They would kill the entire internet or even the Electric grid before they allow this.

Just like they killed the internet or even Electrical grid to stop the internet.
Just like they killed the personal computer or even Electrical grid to stop strong encryption.

The internet & strong encryption are probably the two most dangerous things to a statist government.   The utility of those technologies restrained the hand of big govt.

Personally I don't think bitcoin will become a reserve currency.  I would be happy with a global payment platform which rivals  PayPal but the govts of the world aren't going to shut down the internets.  It isn't going to happen.  Ever.

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security

The most effective tyanical governments are the ones which push the populace but never too far.  Never to tip the balance from sufferable evils to "a long train of abuses and usurpations".  Had good King George remained a tyrant but reigned in those abuses just a little it is entirely possible Americans would still be saying 'God save the queen' today.

[acoindr]

I would be happy with a global payment platform which rivals  PayPal but the govts of the world aren't going to shut down the internets.  It isn't going to happen.  Ever.

They couldn't kill the Internet because it has become permanent part of the economy. It would be like trying to go back to the moon in the Apollo 11 module. The solid state pieces to build it are no longer made. (ok maybe a bit of an exaggeration, but not much)

[knight22]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

[DeathAndTaxes]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

They are hoping it will cause the price to go down so they can buy more coinz!

[knight22]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

Too many problems for too long. I will still watch but I won't engage again unless many things change.

Which are?

[justusranvier]

I shut off my miners today (6 Ghash/s) even as the price increases because I don’t trust it anymore. Too many problems for too long.

That doesn't follow. If you don't trust Bitcoins convert them to some other currency as quickly as possible.

[rjk]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

Too many problems for too long. I will still watch but I won't engage again unless many things change.

Which are?

Do your own research. Start with a simple search going back to MyBitcoin. Search for Peter Lambert. Look up Bitcoinica’s history. Do a few bad exchanges. Maybe I’ve just had some bad luck. Your mileage may vary but I’m disappointed. I just lost another 50 btc and that’s the end for me personally.

How did you lose another 50? Perhaps you are just risk-prone.

[rjk]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

Too many problems for too long. I will still watch but I won't engage again unless many things change.

Which are?

Do your own research. Start with a simple search going back to MyBitcoin. Search for Peter Lambert. Look up Bitcoinica’s history. Do a few bad exchanges. Maybe I’ve just had some bad luck. Your mileage may vary but I’m disappointed. I just lost another 50 btc and that’s the end for me personally.

How did you lose another 50? Perhaps you are just risk-prone.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8864.msg1024786#msg1024786

Dude, it's Jeremy. He isn't gonna skate with your dough, although it sucks that it's held hostage just as the price is moving around.

[DannyHamilton]

Seems like you have decent knowledge of history.  Banks issued paper notes that were supposedly backed by coin on deposit.  Banks literally created credit at a whim.  But there were bank runs and bubbles caused by this issuance of 'discount notes.'  With the implementation of a central bank, banks could issue more and more levels of credit and have that credit covered by central bank issuance.

In short, your deposit at the bank earns crap, b/c the central bank is constantly shuffling freshly printed money into the interbank market.  This lowers their costs (interest paid to depositors) and reduces default losses on secured loans, given the steady debasement. . .

Perhaps, but I don't understand what makes people think bitcoin will destroy the banking industry:

Using everything you've said:
Banks can issue paper notes that are supposedly backed by bitcoin on deposit. Banks can literaly create [bitcoin] credit at a whim. There may be bank runs and bubbles caused by issuance of 'discount [bitcoin] notes'. With the implementation of a central bank, banks can issue more and more levels of credit and have that credit covered by central bank issuance.

In short, your bitcoin deposit at the bank earns crap, b/c the central bank is constantly shuffling freshly printed [bitcoin certificates] into the interbank market. This lowers their costs (interest paid to depositors) and reduces default losses on secured loans, given the steady debasement. . .

[DannyHamilton]

I don't know how old you are, but when i was a kid a cola cost 50 cents.  Its hard to find a can for just a dollar where i am these days.  

Certainly.  That's known as inflation. With bitcoin the economy can most likely expect deflation, so that 0.14BTC cola today will be available for 0.07BTC eventually.

Of course, along with the increase in cost came an increase in salaries. And if bitcoin becomes mainstream, we can all expect an annual pay cut (rather than an annual pay increase) so that our bitcoin salaries don't get too far ahead of the deflation in the currency. So while the cost of the can of soda may drop in half eventually, the average salary will drop in half in approximately the same amount of time.

For those who carry any sort of debt (Mortgage on a house, business loan for growth (or starting), automobile loan, etc), steady and dependable inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing.  You take out a loan with fixed payments, and during the terms of the loan, your salary rises with inflation making your payment a smaller percentage of your pay. The loan becomes easier to pay off.

With a deflationary economy (like bitcoin), if you take a long term loan with fixed payments, the loan will become more and more difficult to pay off as your salary is reduced each year. The payment will become an ever larger percentage of your pay.

Of course it would be possible for banks to create a payment structure with larger than necessary payments in the beginning and then the payments can shrink with each passing month in an attempt to predict and keep up with the deflation rate.

The point is that inflation is bad if you carry no loans and are trying to preserve the value of the currency you own, but deflation is bad if you have more debt than savings and are trying to reduce the cost of that debt.

[acoindr]

I wonder why some people think it's gonna be a big failure...

....because even the most trusted vendors trading in Bitcoins eventually steal. A currency is only as valuable at the trust that individuals have in it. I shut off my miners today (6 Ghash/s) even as the price increases because I don’t trust it anymore. Too many problems for too long. I will still watch but I won't engage again unless many things change.

A currency is only as valuable as the trust individuals have in the currency, not other individuals. Bad apples in Bitcoin don't change the usefulness of bitcoin; it doesn't change the fact you can send 10,000,000 worth of some value around the world to anybody you want for very little or no cost, and without asking any permission.

[TraderTimm]

It stuns me a bit sometimes when people don't realize the potential that bitcoin has. Even if the 'experiment' doesn't work out in this iteration, the principles involved will persist and change the entire nature of finance.

The banks have just been infected, and bitcoin and its variants are not going to just go 'away'. Anyone running a payment processor, for example, should be watching bitcoin very carefully - because it completely cannibalizes their business model.

[pekv2]

I was gonna vote Win. But, I don't see it in there.

My ultimate expectation for bitcoin is, Win!

[tvbcof]

Did'nt vote...no options were ones which I could honestly choose.  My 'expectation' and my 'hopes' are two entirely different things.

My expectation for the trajectory of Bitcoin is that it will have precious little to do with Bitcoin itself, and almost everything to do with the alternatives (USD, gold, etc.)  If the likes of Kim Dotcom find it solved their problems then the likes of me (as someone who holds them in some quantity) may end up fairly well off.

If Bitcoin finds it's legs (again, for reasons that have little to do with Bitcoin itself) I expect that it will become a different beast than what initially attracted me.  I sense that relatively little thought was put into how to deal with what could turn into it's biggest challenge.  Namely over-popularity.  Bitcoin 'peers' as I define them will be 'peers' in the same way that the chartered banks are peers in the SWIFT system in today's economic climate.  The only realistic way to moderate usage will be to impose fees/quality-of-service which will make those who can manage to be 'peers' very happy and very wealthy.  On top of that, many parts of the world will likely quash 'threats' by managing internet traffic which will further constrain the count of people who can be 'peers' and further increase their earning potential.

My 'hopes' for Bitcoin are along the lines of it inspiring smart people to continue to harden it against various threats or mal-evolution and/or develop similar solutions which are by design less subject to the unpleasant warts which Bitcoin may (or may not) develop.