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Author Topic: The price of Bitcoin, if it succeeds  (Read 1446 times)
turvarya
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January 17, 2015, 02:12:42 PM
 #1

There is a lot of talk about at what price BTC is supposed to be. This statements are mostly based on the past price of BTC.
E.g. "It can't be 1000 USD/BTC today since it was just 130 USD/BTC 2 years ago"
I think, that is a pretty bad way to look at it.
The best way, I can think of, is what has the price to be, when a certain amount of people use it. Imagine in 10 years 100 Million people worldwide are using Bitcoin in some way(I don't want to discuss, if that is a good estimate, since the title of the topic is "if it succeeds"). Looking at the current market cap of ~$ 3 billion, that is just not enough. That means that everybody can just use an equivalent of average 30 USD.
Any other suggestions on how to determine a good price?

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January 17, 2015, 02:28:21 PM
 #2

There is a lot of talk about at what price BTC is supposed to be. This statements are mostly based on the past price of BTC.
E.g. "It can't be 1000 USD/BTC today since it was just 130 USD/BTC 2 years ago"
I think, that is a pretty bad way to look at it.
The best way, I can think of, is what has the price to be, when a certain amount of people use it. Imagine in 10 years 100 Million people worldwide are using Bitcoin in some way(I don't want to discuss, if that is a good estimate, since the title of the topic is "if it succeeds"). Looking at the current market cap of ~$ 3 billion, that is just not enough. That means that everybody can just use an equivalent of average 30 USD.
Any other suggestions on how to determine a good price?

You see .. that's the issue mate , everyone look at the price and they  want to get rich between night & another just like that .
which is wrong ... a good price isn't what makes us rich but it's stable price . Let's say ~300$ for three months . that's stable then it's good . even if it was 1$ .
Most of people don't give a shit about Bitcoin being annonymus or fast or without fees they just want to become rich. *facepalm*
that's my opinion Grin

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January 17, 2015, 02:44:14 PM
 #3

I remember reading an article on Winklevosses where they predicted potential price of bitcoin if let's say bitcoin succeeded as a payment system capturing all the current credit card market share. It was a huge figure which I can't recall.

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January 17, 2015, 02:51:06 PM
 #4

The volatility is scary and is going to be scary for a while. I believe we're going to hit a tipping point somewhere around 10-20 million users, where downward volatility becomes more limited, but we're still going to see 10% drops as price advances strongly then retrenches a bit. Now at 100 million users, it sounds like a lot, but that might not be halfway into the "early majority" of the adoption curve, so there will be a lot of upward volatility remaining. However, the manipulations of traders should be becoming lost in the noise at this point.

Price guesstimates have a habit of running into the 10s of thousands for a handful of percentage penetration into any market. That causes credibility problems, it also encourages the get rich overnight thinking. But seriously it is very hard to do any solid reckoning that doesn't end up with a string of zeros after it. The Winkelvii 400 Billion Market cap prediction has been described as "very low bull" and even that seems inconceivable to a lot of people. Full bull, bitcoin cleans up 33% of every use it seems reasonable it might have at the minute (Not counting the more exotic uses soon to be enabled by Counterparty, colored coins, sidechains, etc) and the numbers go insane, really insane, market cap in trillions insane, it really causes a cognitive dissonance type reaction, where you just have to put the pen down, or close the spreadsheet and shake your head. So, lots of people will have a failure of imagination, a mental short circuit, even faced with "low bull" figures, and say "That's impossible! That can't happen!"

Anyway, people ask you for a price estimate, and you might mutter out $10,000, knowing in your heart that that is actually an unreasonable estimate for significant adoption, unreasonable to the extreme on the low side, because "reasonable" projections seem too damn unreasonable for you to get anything but laughed at.

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January 17, 2015, 03:17:20 PM
 #5

take a look:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2nXgK34HIM

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January 17, 2015, 03:51:52 PM
 #6

There is a lot of talk about at what price BTC is supposed to be. This statements are mostly based on the past price of BTC.
E.g. "It can't be 1000 USD/BTC today since it was just 130 USD/BTC 2 years ago"
I think, that is a pretty bad way to look at it.
The best way, I can think of, is what has the price to be, when a certain amount of people use it. Imagine in 10 years 100 Million people worldwide are using Bitcoin in some way(I don't want to discuss, if that is a good estimate, since the title of the topic is "if it succeeds"). Looking at the current market cap of ~$ 3 billion, that is just not enough. That means that everybody can just use an equivalent of average 30 USD.
Any other suggestions on how to determine a good price?

You see .. that's the issue mate , everyone look at the price and they  want to get rich between night & another just like that .
which is wrong ... a good price isn't what makes us rich but it's stable price . Let's say ~300$ for three months . that's stable then it's good . even if it was 1$ .
Most of people don't give a shit about Bitcoin being annonymus or fast or without fees they just want to become rich. *facepalm*
that's my opinion Grin

Good and a stable price of 1million USD/btc
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January 17, 2015, 03:56:29 PM
 #7

There is a lot of talk about at what price BTC is supposed to be. This statements are mostly based on the past price of BTC.
E.g. "It can't be 1000 USD/BTC today since it was just 130 USD/BTC 2 years ago"
I think, that is a pretty bad way to look at it.
The best way, I can think of, is what has the price to be, when a certain amount of people use it. Imagine in 10 years 100 Million people worldwide are using Bitcoin in some way(I don't want to discuss, if that is a good estimate, since the title of the topic is "if it succeeds"). Looking at the current market cap of ~$ 3 billion, that is just not enough. That means that everybody can just use an equivalent of average 30 USD.
Any other suggestions on how to determine a good price?

You see .. that's the issue mate , everyone look at the price and they  want to get rich between night & another just like that .
which is wrong ... a good price isn't what makes us rich but it's stable price . Let's say ~300$ for three months . that's stable then it's good . even if it was 1$ .
Most of people don't give a shit about Bitcoin being annonymus or fast or without fees they just want to become rich. *facepalm*
that's my opinion Grin

Good and a stable price of 1million USD/btc

now that would be pretty awesome.

.BitDice.               ▄▄███▄▄
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ujka
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January 17, 2015, 04:04:17 PM
 #8

Take a look at Bitcoin Price Speculator Model page, and play with the numbers Smiley
http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html
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January 17, 2015, 04:16:08 PM
 #9

Yes it depends on how much user of bitcoin is
Flashman
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January 17, 2015, 04:25:47 PM
 #10

I have a notion that the velocity of bitcoin will actually drop over time. At some point it becomes useful enough to the general populace and business, that exchange transactions stop happening, and they will maintain a balance or float in bitcoin. Some of us do this now, and seek out places to spend bitcoin when we receive it. This involves "effort". As the amount of "effort" this takes shrinks to zero, many more people will do it.

Unless in future, exchanges, wallet sites, or other proxies for bitcoin banks are running fractional reserve, if a bitcoin is received at the moment, in ecommerce or remittance, it's highly likely to be available for use again quickly, as it is exchanged for dollars. When there's a critical mass of places to spend or use bitcoin, then it becomes pointless to change to dollars and back again, so people will retain that amount of bitcoin to spend at a future time. So instead of that amount being available for re-use several times a day, it will sit in someone's wallet for a day, two days, week, until they have occasion to spend it. This would tend to bring bitcoins velocity down into the same range as a dollars one would think.

TL;DR See Spot run. Run Spot run. .... .... Freelance interweb comedian, for teh lulz >>> 1MqAAR4XkJWfDt367hVTv5SstPZ54Fwse6

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January 17, 2015, 05:01:55 PM
 #11

I think that the first thing we need is the end of the manipulation in markets

after what we can talk about high prices in bitcoin I could even see it at 10k $
turvarya
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January 17, 2015, 06:04:25 PM
 #12

Take a look at Bitcoin Price Speculator Model page, and play with the numbers Smiley
http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html
That is a great site.
Playing around there is really fun and it gives a more sophisticated estimate.

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January 17, 2015, 07:27:22 PM
 #13

I remember reading an article on Winklevosses where they predicted potential price of bitcoin if let's say bitcoin succeeded as a payment system capturing all the current credit card market share. It was a huge figure which I can't recall.

about $40,000 I think

this is the most common prediction of a stable price I have seen when bitcoin is used mainstream

Grin
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January 17, 2015, 07:30:37 PM
 #14

There is a lot of talk about at what price BTC is supposed to be. This statements are mostly based on the past price of BTC.
E.g. "It can't be 1000 USD/BTC today since it was just 130 USD/BTC 2 years ago"
I think, that is a pretty bad way to look at it.
The best way, I can think of, is what has the price to be, when a certain amount of people use it. Imagine in 10 years 100 Million people worldwide are using Bitcoin in some way(I don't want to discuss, if that is a good estimate, since the title of the topic is "if it succeeds"). Looking at the current market cap of ~$ 3 billion, that is just not enough. That means that everybody can just use an equivalent of average 30 USD.
Any other suggestions on how to determine a good price?

I dont think it can be discussed any logical way for now apart from saying that it would be determined by demand supply. At the moment supply is very high as BFL is selling under court order to refund customers. So, unless supply decreases, price wont shoot up as demand is growing in steady pace with new companies coming in.

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January 17, 2015, 08:11:36 PM
 #15

Volatility is what will keep full major retailer adoption.They can't risk losing their revenue due to foreign currency exchange volatility (i.e., USD/EUR/GBP/YEN to BTC conversion swings.)

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January 17, 2015, 08:15:58 PM
 #16

There is a lot of talk about at what price BTC is supposed to be. This statements are mostly based on the past price of BTC.
E.g. "It can't be 1000 USD/BTC today since it was just 130 USD/BTC 2 years ago"
I think, that is a pretty bad way to look at it.
The best way, I can think of, is what has the price to be, when a certain amount of people use it. Imagine in 10 years 100 Million people worldwide are using Bitcoin in some way(I don't want to discuss, if that is a good estimate, since the title of the topic is "if it succeeds"). Looking at the current market cap of ~$ 3 billion, that is just not enough. That means that everybody can just use an equivalent of average 30 USD.
Any other suggestions on how to determine a good price?

You see .. that's the issue mate , everyone look at the price and they  want to get rich between night & another just like that .
which is wrong ... a good price isn't what makes us rich but it's stable price . Let's say ~300$ for three months . that's stable then it's good . even if it was 1$ .
Most of people don't give a shit about Bitcoin being annonymus or fast or without fees they just want to become rich. *facepalm*
that's my opinion Grin

Good and a stable price of 1million USD/btc
I don' think there will be any growth that big anytime ever.
1000 USD would be great for it to reach again.

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January 17, 2015, 08:21:26 PM
 #17

Fans say it will get to $50k
Others say zero

The current price reflects the fan/other ratio.







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January 17, 2015, 08:46:39 PM
 #18

I think more people spend time concerning themselves with the price that figuring out how to spend it on a day to day basis in their own lives.

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January 17, 2015, 09:04:46 PM
 #19

yes, if you want to support BTC , do something. first thing is, use it. speak about it. donate it.

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January 18, 2015, 02:02:41 AM
 #20

There will never be a mass adoption as long as whales and early adopters hold 99%+ of all bitcoins. Spread the wealth, perform random of acts of kindness and give away some of your coins to noobs. Like me!!!!

My signature area is for sale!
PM me if you are interested in renting it.
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