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Author Topic: Price can continue to fall, but have little worry.  (Read 951 times)
Incryptex
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January 17, 2015, 04:13:38 PM
 #1

We entered the Bitcoin environment when PFlops of the network were around 600.  It was an absolute certainty that the authenticity of the store of value everyone called Bitcoin was incorruptible.

That same network is now 39,000,000 PFlops.  Most participants did not want the aggravating circumstance to purchase Bitcoin and instead decided to mine it.  99% of the hashing power out there is completely irrelevant to the stability of the network which, as I said was untouchable at 600 PFlops.  However the arms race began.

To our knowledge unless you have created some kind of geothermal electricity and housed your rigs in the Norweigan Arctic while your best friend owned a chip foundry in China operated with one million prisoners, there is no way for mining to be profitable.

There are some indisputable laws of the universe.  Gravity, the speed of light, and we will say Moore's Law.  We simply could not double the rate of transistors fast enough to satisfy the appetite to mine Bitcoin and now the weight of those huge pieces of infrastructure must collapse.  In effect we personally see it as a confidence boost that illustrates the longevity of Bitcoin.  Economics will reign in the rate of growth of the network and prevent centralization of mining from falling into a few hands.  The risk is simply to great for these enterprises to consider.  When a graph of the exponential growth of the network is overlayed on the rigid two year stair-step of Moore's Law one can clearly see where things went awry.  Instead the risk will be redistributed over the many.  Quite an astounding consequence of design.

Unfortunately this is the first time this phenomenon has been regarded and so many of these players have been blindsided unable to comprehend what has happened.  For the rest of us the fall out is regarded in the price but we are comforted to know the network has a built in mechanism where even limits exist for mining to keep everything in balance. 
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January 17, 2015, 04:29:18 PM
 #2

stop crying and ... buy bitcoin.  Roll Eyes
if bitcoin is low, miner MUST sell mined bitcoin.

perfect model here.
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January 17, 2015, 04:59:10 PM
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Basically, you are saying that mining will collapse because the hash rate has increased faster than Moore's Law, but you have not explained how you arrived that questionable conclusion..

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January 17, 2015, 05:02:17 PM
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Basically, you are saying that mining will collapse because the hash rate has increased faster than Moore's Law, but you have not explained how you arrived that questionable conclusion..
There is nothing to explain, OP is obviously trolling.
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January 17, 2015, 05:11:13 PM
 #5

You know what they say; " first American invents something, then the Russians say that they already invented it, and then the Chinese make if for have price!
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January 17, 2015, 05:26:13 PM
 #6

so many nonsense thread from a new account

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January 17, 2015, 09:01:49 PM
 #7

We entered the Bitcoin environment when PFlops of the network were around 600.  It was an absolute certainty that the authenticity of the store of value everyone called Bitcoin was incorruptible.

That same network is now 39,000,000 PFlops.  Most participants did not want the aggravating circumstance to purchase Bitcoin and instead decided to mine it.  99% of the hashing power out there is completely irrelevant to the stability of the network which, as I said was untouchable at 600 PFlops.  However the arms race began.

To our knowledge unless you have created some kind of geothermal electricity and housed your rigs in the Norweigan Arctic while your best friend owned a chip foundry in China operated with one million prisoners, there is no way for mining to be profitable.

There are some indisputable laws of the universe.  Gravity, the speed of light, and we will say Moore's Law.  We simply could not double the rate of transistors fast enough to satisfy the appetite to mine Bitcoin and now the weight of those huge pieces of infrastructure must collapse.  In effect we personally see it as a confidence boost that illustrates the longevity of Bitcoin.  Economics will reign in the rate of growth of the network and prevent centralization of mining from falling into a few hands.  The risk is simply to great for these enterprises to consider.  When a graph of the exponential growth of the network is overlayed on the rigid two year stair-step of Moore's Law one can clearly see where things went awry.  Instead the risk will be redistributed over the many.  Quite an astounding consequence of design.

Unfortunately this is the first time this phenomenon has been regarded and so many of these players have been blindsided unable to comprehend what has happened.  For the rest of us the fall out is regarded in the price but we are comforted to know the network has a built in mechanism where even limits exist for mining to keep everything in balance. 

Nice 1st post.

agreed nice first post
somewhat lost on some other members what he's saying
I doubt they even read entire post
very good

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January 17, 2015, 11:25:37 PM
 #8

Agreed.  Good observation.
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January 17, 2015, 11:40:35 PM
 #9

Good points and a generally well thought out post.  However, I think mining profitability is just one small component of the general flow of bitcoin.  The biggest obstacle it will have to face, being a non transparent 'trust' system, is just that...trust.  The continued nationally broadcasted scam exchanges and illicit activity are what will ultimately cast a dark shadow on its name and prevent the common prospector from participating.  We're already experiencing that phenomena now.  Whether the price is $5 or $5,000...something is going to have to change within the bitcoin ecosystem to help prevent and weed out these grandeur heists...or the project will never fully materialize.    

Bitcoiners will rationalize by saying that every currency has its pitfalls and are subject to the wrong hands.  And while that is true, those other 'already adopted' currencies are not the ones on the outside looking in, trying to break into mainstream hands.   Bitcoin has the 'burden' of proving to the common individual that it is a positive, trustable and dependable technology...with enough incentive for them to ditch current methods.

Think of this like an episode of Shark Tank.  You can hype and pitch your technology's usage and benefits a million ways until the sun don't shine, but if the experts still have an armory full of counter points, holes in your logic, and skepticism....it's going to be difficult to get that final nod.
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January 17, 2015, 11:42:15 PM
 #10

anyone who thinks Moore's "law" is an indisputable law of the universe is an indisputable bonehead.

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January 18, 2015, 12:03:29 AM
 #11


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January 18, 2015, 12:36:26 AM
 #12

Basically, you are saying that mining will collapse because the hash rate has increased faster than Moore's Law, but you have not explained how you arrived that questionable conclusion..
Well to be fair the rate that the network hashrate has increased is probably more then it really needs to be in order to have the network properly secured. I would say a lot of the increase in hashpower was the result in investments in mining from when the price was closer to $1,000 then it is today

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January 18, 2015, 12:48:43 AM
 #13


To our knowledge unless you have created some kind of geothermal electricity and housed your rigs in the Norweigan Arctic while your best friend owned a chip foundry in China operated with one million prisoners, there is no way for mining to be profitable.

It's possible. There might be places in remote areas in the world that we don't even know about or third world countries where electricity generation is in excess and is considered still cheap. Same goes for hardware.

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January 19, 2015, 07:14:47 PM
 #14

Basically, you are saying that mining will collapse because the hash rate has increased faster than Moore's Law, but you have not explained how you arrived that questionable conclusion..
There is nothing to explain, OP is obviously trolling.
I would say that he probably does not want his thought to be associated with with his "main" account. He does make somewhat of a good point that as of now you do need very cheap electricity in order to realistically be able to ROI with even the best (most efficient) equipment available now.

One however could speculate that fewer then historically new miners will be able to be sold by the mining manufacturers due to the fact that the block subsidy is going to be halving in roughly a year from now and the fact that he will generally take at least a year to ROI on mining equipment
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