TheJuice's Price Theory for 2015

[TheJuice]

My hope is to revisit this topic at the end of 2015 and see how many of my predictions came true.

Today, 1/17, we saw bitcoin sway around the $200 mark; in response difficulty is dropping. All miners at the 1W per Ghash level or worse have been squeezed out. The newest, best miners are barely profitable. WHat does this mean for the price of bitcoin?

1) Difficulty, and hence new machinery will stop being produced in 2015 unlike 2014. What happens when there is a decrease in miner hardware? To produce hardware these companies are taking orders in BTC and converting into fiat to pay employees, vendors, producers, etc. Think of all the SELLING pressure that produced in 2014. This selling pressure will stop - but could continue if the price rises. Overall this will have a POSITIVE effect on price.

2) Continued end-user growth through mainstream applications. The user base, your average Jo will be able to use bitcoin, but most likely the stores accepting bitcoin will convert bitcoins back to FIAT. This will have a NEUTRAL effect. In 2014, it was great that many mainstream stores accepted bitcoin - except every purchase put selling pressure on the market. 2015 will not be the year where stores hold on to btc instead of immediately converting to fiat. I hope this will happen in 2016 or 17. Await my Jan 2016 predictions.

3) New investment vehicle for the average user through finally an ETF. This will stabilize the price and result in a net inflow of fiat. This will be POSITIVE.

4) Governments across the world will recognize bitcoin as a currency. This will have widespread tax implications. Furthermore, it will allow for in 2017 the first large bank to exchange fiat for btc at local branches.

5) Thus, due to those influence I expect a strong positive trend this year - probably a small bubble or two. Expected price range at the end of the year to be ~$800 USD (would not be surprised if in the 1000 range given #1 above).

Godspeed. I'll bring this post back in 2016.

TJ

[samson]

My hope is to revisit this topic at the end of 2015 and see how many of my predictions came true.

Today, 1/17, we saw bitcoin sway around the $200 mark; in response difficulty is dropping. All miners at the 1W per Ghash level or worse have been squeezed out. The newest, best miners are barely profitable. WHat does this mean for the price of bitcoin?

1) Difficulty, and hence new machinery will stop being produced in 2015 unlike 2014. What happens when there is a decrease in miner hardware? To produce hardware these companies are taking orders in BTC and converting into fiat to pay employees, vendors, producers, etc. Think of all the SELLING pressure that produced in 2014. This selling pressure will stop - but could continue if the price rises. Overall this will have a POSITIVE effect on price.

2) Continued end-user growth through mainstream applications. The user base, your average Jo will be able to use bitcoin, but most likely the stores accepting bitcoin will convert bitcoins back to FIAT. This will have a NEUTRAL effect. In 2014, it was great that many mainstream stores accepted bitcoin - except every purchase put selling pressure on the market. 2015 will not be the year where stores hold on to btc instead of immediately converting to fiat. I hope this will happen in 2016 or 17. Await my Jan 2016 predictions.

3) New investment vehicle for the average user through finally an ETF. This will stabilize the price and result in a net inflow of fiat. This will be POSITIVE.

4) Governments across the world will recognize bitcoin as a currency. This will have widespread tax implications. Furthermore, it will allow for in 2017 the first large bank to exchange fiat for btc at local branches.

5) Thus, due to those influence I expect a strong positive trend this year - probably a small bubble or two. Expected price range at the end of the year to be ~$800 USD (would not be surprised if in the 1000 range given #1 above).

Godspeed. I'll bring this post back in 2016.

TJ

My prediction is that pretty much everything you said above is wrong.

[RyNinDaCleM]

3) New investment vehicle for the average user through finally an ETF. This will stabilize the price and result in a net inflow of fiat. This will be POSITIVE.

They have been trying to do this since 2012 and still haven't moved further along. Why would it change this year? The hoops to jump through are many, and the actual info (let alone positive info) are few and far between. It could happen, but don't base 20% of your annual prediction on this yet unknown.

Another thing, there is no proof that they will ever buy another Bitcoin for the fund. The net inflow would be to the ETF with the possibility of a bit of overflow into the actual underlying asset. I'm sure they will want to recoup some of their costs incurred over the last 2+ years, trying to make this a reality.

[CoinOp]

I've read a lot of different people's predictions, and it's almost like throwing a dart at a dart board.  Most people don't really know where it will go, and there's other events in motion that effect the price that most people don't even bother to account for. 

[gentlemand]

I think we can safely predict that a whole load of cool developments will continue emerging. As for the price I'll just be battered among the waves like everyone else and see where it ends up.

[Q7]

Let's see how it goes with the prediction which is pretty bullish. Fact is I think in terms of price, I doubt it can return back to the previous high it achieved earlier. I would see the next halving to have a more positive impact and that won't happen very soon, plus there is no guarantee. Also I have a little doubt on the governments accepting bitcoin. they will certainly draft the regulation on control and taxes which are more important but overall there's still a long way to go.

[ronald98]

This time last year it was unthinkable that we could go this low. Now we are here it's unthinkable we could go exceptionally high in a year, so I predict we go exceptionally high.

[inca]

They have been trying to do this since 2012 and still haven't moved further along. Why would it change this year? The hoops to jump through are many, and the actual info (let alone positive info) are few and far between. It could happen, but don't base 20% of your annual prediction on this yet unknown.

Another thing, there is no proof that they will ever buy another Bitcoin for the fund. The net inflow would be to the ETF with the possibility of a bit of overflow into the actual underlying asset. I'm sure they will want to recoup some of their costs incurred over the last 2+ years, trying to make this a reality.

Given they are still 10x up on their initial investment of 100,000 coins I don't think costs are a major problem.

[inca]

This time last year it was unthinkable that we could go this low. Now we are here it's unthinkable we could go exceptionally high in a year, so I predict we go exceptionally high.

In early 2014 the price was high and everyone was predicting moon.

Now in early 2015 the price is much lower and everyone is predicting doom.

The trend is your..wait

[twiifm]

They have been trying to do this since 2012 and still haven't moved further along. Why would it change this year? The hoops to jump through are many, and the actual info (let alone positive info) are few and far between. It could happen, but don't base 20% of your annual prediction on this yet unknown.

Another thing, there is no proof that they will ever buy another Bitcoin for the fund. The net inflow would be to the ETF with the possibility of a bit of overflow into the actual underlying asset. I'm sure they will want to recoup some of their costs incurred over the last 2+ years, trying to make this a reality.

Given they are still 10x up on their initial investment of 100,000 coins I don't think costs are a major problem.

I thought their buy in price is around $200?

[RyNinDaCleM]

They have been trying to do this since 2012 and still haven't moved further along. Why would it change this year? The hoops to jump through are many, and the actual info (let alone positive info) are few and far between. It could happen, but don't base 20% of your annual prediction on this yet unknown.

Another thing, there is no proof that they will ever buy another Bitcoin for the fund. The net inflow would be to the ETF with the possibility of a bit of overflow into the actual underlying asset. I'm sure they will want to recoup some of their costs incurred over the last 2+ years, trying to make this a reality.

Given they are still 10x up on their initial investment of 100,000 coins I don't think costs are a major problem.

I thought their buy in price is around $200?

Not a chance! They did most of their buying between $5 and $15.

@inca, this is true, so maybe I'm wrong about them needing to recoup, but it doesn't change any of the rest of my statement.

[inca]

They have been trying to do this since 2012 and still haven't moved further along. Why would it change this year? The hoops to jump through are many, and the actual info (let alone positive info) are few and far between. It could happen, but don't base 20% of your annual prediction on this yet unknown.

Another thing, there is no proof that they will ever buy another Bitcoin for the fund. The net inflow would be to the ETF with the possibility of a bit of overflow into the actual underlying asset. I'm sure they will want to recoup some of their costs incurred over the last 2+ years, trying to make this a reality.

Given they are still 10x up on their initial investment of 100,000 coins I don't think costs are a major problem.

I thought their buy in price is around $200?

Not a chance! They did most of their buying between $5 and $15.

@inca, this is true, so maybe I'm wrong about them needing to recoup, but it doesn't change any of the rest of my statement.

100,000 coins at 200 dollars is a cap of twenty million dollars. Peanuts compared to the multi trillion dollar capital pool excluded from investing in btc.

It does allow them to sell out. But they could have drip fed their holdings easily before now at much higher prices.

If ever approved it would be insanely bullish and lead to major volatility IMO.

[twiifm]

They have been trying to do this since 2012 and still haven't moved further along. Why would it change this year? The hoops to jump through are many, and the actual info (let alone positive info) are few and far between. It could happen, but don't base 20% of your annual prediction on this yet unknown.

Another thing, there is no proof that they will ever buy another Bitcoin for the fund. The net inflow would be to the ETF with the possibility of a bit of overflow into the actual underlying asset. I'm sure they will want to recoup some of their costs incurred over the last 2+ years, trying to make this a reality.

Given they are still 10x up on their initial investment of 100,000 coins I don't think costs are a major problem.

I thought their buy in price is around $200?

Not a chance! They did most of their buying between $5 and $15.

@inca, this is true, so maybe I'm wrong about them needing to recoup, but it doesn't change any of the rest of my statement.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/11/as-big-investors-emerge-bitcoin-gets-ready-for-its-close-up/?_r=0

They announced they owned $11M worth when the price was $266 then it crashed to $120.  That's about coins 92K coins valued at the $120 price.  How many coins are they rumored to have?

[Chef Ramsay]

They have been trying to do this since 2012 and still haven't moved further along. Why would it change this year? The hoops to jump through are many, and the actual info (let alone positive info) are few and far between. It could happen, but don't base 20% of your annual prediction on this yet unknown.

Another thing, there is no proof that they will ever buy another Bitcoin for the fund. The net inflow would be to the ETF with the possibility of a bit of overflow into the actual underlying asset. I'm sure they will want to recoup some of their costs incurred over the last 2+ years, trying to make this a reality.

Given they are still 10x up on their initial investment of 100,000 coins I don't think costs are a major problem.

I would also mention that their attorney in this SEC battle is quite a heavyweight and knows her way around that whole neck of the woods. She's like the most well known champ in those circles so I highly doubt her credibility and pull won't eventually bring this thing to fruition. In other words, she's a bad bitch that knows how to get shit done and that's why they put her on the job. It's not a matter of if but when this thing pops off. So, place your bets on where this machine sends the price to as opposed to worrying about whether it'll see the light of day. We don't exactly have a gumshoe on the job here, ya know..! More like a sleuth or ace or the head of the entire line of work that all that indulge in think in awe of. If Johnnie Cochran can get OJ off of murder charges, then this broad can land a freaking ETF. Check her history in this line of work and you'll soon find it's in great hands.

[wilth1]

I would also mention that their attorney in this SEC battle is quite a heavyweight and knows her way around that whole neck of the woods. She's like the most well known champ in those circles so I highly doubt her credibility and pull won't eventually bring this thing to fruition. In other words, she's a bad bitch that knows how to get shit done and that's why they put her on the job. It's not a matter of if but when this thing pops off. So, place your bets on where this machine sends the price to as opposed to worrying about whether it'll see the light of day. We don't exactly have a gumshoe on the job here, ya know..! More like a sleuth or ace or the head of the entire line of work that all that indulge in think in awe of. If Johnnie Cochran can get OJ off of murder charges, then this broad can land a freaking ETF. Check her history in this line of work and you'll soon find it's in great hands.

Upon announcement, speculators will push the price through the roof in a day or two, then it will move downward.  Will the ETF exert any exchange buying pressure?  Good question.

I think the answer lies in the question: what would be the most profitable long-term approach for these guys to take?

Also, who's to say they haven't already been selling/engaging in price manipulation?

[Arv1e]

My hope is to revisit this topic at the end of 2015 and see how many of my predictions came true.

Today, 1/17, we saw bitcoin sway around the $200 mark; in response difficulty is dropping. All miners at the 1W per Ghash level or worse have been squeezed out. The newest, best miners are barely profitable. WHat does this mean for the price of bitcoin?

Hi TJ,

I support your thinking. These were some if the reasons i got into BTC last year and nothing has changed.

I would like to make one point which few seem to understand.

Regarding mining the system has been designed to adjust for Hash and processing. As the power of the mining equipment increases then the difficulty rises and vice versa. This is done by the system looking to achieve a maths difficulty level which equates to 10 minutes to solve. if the solution time differs then the difficulty is adjusted to compensate. I believe the system has a two week delay regarding adjustment but someone on here will accurately confirm this.

Simply put, less miners, more miners, hiher processing speed, lower processing speed has no long term effect on the system.

After such a long bear run then I understand tiotally the ack of confidence regarding BTC returning to previous levels. In reality it is in its infancy and it only takes a few bulls over a few days (traders) to buy a decent amount and "Woosh" suddenly BTC is rising and the bull run returns.

With BTC being so cheap (relatively) and the market Cap being so small then it doesnt take a genius to realise a Market Cap rising to $50billion is equal to the value of a large Company which is nothing in comparision to world potewntial..

Have some faith Guys!