Oh wow, so many replies!
But then wouldn't this thread be proof then that negative interest garners more interest than posting something positive?
Myself, I read it as a rough gauge of sentiment around here. Remember how awful the general mood was in early 2009? That, actually, was the time to start buying stocks. Simple contrarian analysis: 1) People broadcast what they've already done, because they want you to join them; 2) Sentiment usually goes overboard.
1) says that when "everyone" is bullish, "everyone" has already bought.
Mutatis mutandis for "everyone" bearish. Add 2) and you've got a basic ready-to-go contrarian model.
Of course, it's not as easy as it looks.
Buying when sentiment is gloomy is a great way to rattle your nerves. The contrarian model actually said that the best time to start buying stocks was at the beginning of November 2008. Doing so meant riding through the final panic in Feb-Mar of '09.
Contariwise, selling when "everyone" is bullish inevitably means selling too soon - and feeling like a complete idiot as the market keeps going up and up. That's because there's an MLMish side to every bull market blow-off where new money comes in and listens to "everyone." With the gloom comes normally strong hands being worn down and throwing their hands in.
Fact is, simple evergreen strategies keep on working because
all of them are psychologically costly. In a very real sense, you're compensated for taking pain and learning how to act "inhumanly".
Thanks for starting this topic. It confirms my hunch that the sentiment around here is pretty depressed/angry.
BTW: one reliable aspect of a bear market is declining volume and interest. Have you noticed that it's much easier to catch up on the goings-on around here than it was in March of last year? IOW, have you seen the topic and post count declining along with Bitcoin & most alts?
