Let's say I have about $4k on one of the smaller exchanges

[Topazan]

In this hypothetical scenario, it's not practical for me to withdraw directly through any means this exchange provides, so I need to convert it all to bitcoin.

What would be the best strategy?

Dollar cost averaging over a couple of months?

Just make a large bid for current market value?

Something else?

What would you do?

[1714987433]

1714987433

[hazek]

Depends.. If you have some further deeper insights into what the future is likely to hold a single order might be best but otherwise DCA sounds best to me.

[ribuck]

Make a large bid just below market value, and keep it updated.

The smaller exchanges have considerable volatility, so you can trade at better rates than on the big exchanges if you're not in a hurry.

[kangasbros]

Make bids at market value -1%, -2%, -3%, -4% and so on, and wait Update the bids each day if you have succesfully bought something.

[ArticMine]

A simple strategy depending on the market conditions on the small exchange is:
1) Determine the corresponding USD price if applicable using the corresponding FOREX rate
2) Buy at market as much as possible at any price below the MtGox USD market price
3) Place a bid wall at the MTGox USD price price with the balance and move this wall with changes in the MtGox USD market price

A similar strategy can be used by a seller.

[Elwar]

Dollar cost averaging.


Spend the same amount of dollars over the full length of time in increments.

Perhaps, $100 per day for 40 days.

[Stephen Gornick]

In this hypothetical scenario, it's not practical for me to withdraw directly through any means this exchange provides, so I need to convert it all to bitcoin.

"Hypothetically" the primary reason one would consider not withdrawing fiat is because the account has someone else's name on it.  But with Mt. Gox having delays with their withdrawals, it is conceivable someone would want to want to convert to bitcoin, move the funds to another place where they can be cashed-out.

So, the first question... does the exchange support redeemable codes or account-to-account (A2A) transfers of USDs? 

Mt. Gox,  Crypto X Change, Bitstamp, BtcTree and BTC-E all offer redeemable codes of USDs.
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Redeemable_code

If so, then consider doing a trade by finding  a counterparty that wants to move their cash to the exchange that you use.  You exchange your redeemable code for your counterparty's cash -- whether it be Dwolla, or Western Union, or whatever. 

If redeemable codes are not offered, then you can try another widely used other approach.  Generally if you announce the size of your intended order in advance, you might find a counterparty willing to put up an opposing offer at a cross price that works for both of you.     You'll occasionally see this with BitFloor or Camp BX where someone has a large order that won't clear without pushing the pice significantly one way or the other.  But after pre-announcing that an order would be placed, by the time one is opened there is sufficient interest in unloading a batch of bitcoins for your slightly above spot price.

[Topazan]

So, dollar cost averaging is the way to go I guess.  Should I do it by day, by week, by month, or does it matter?

@Stephen Gornick- I can give you some of the details of this situation by pm if you like.