The next bull market + collapse of short interest bubble

[inca]

How far is this from being a possible scenario for 2015?

The bottom is in. After a huge volume capitulation the bears cannot push the price down any lower - the invisible selling hand has stopped selling.

VC funding continues to pour into the space ignoring the bitcoin price entirely (75,000,000 USD in coinbase today including investment from US banking partners). The reason for banks investing is they know that the Bitlicense (due to be released in days) is positive for bitcoin. Once bitlicense is released and major players are positioned the ETF will go live shortly after, resulting in an avalanche of investment capital entering the space.

The entire 'crash' of inexplicable selling (in a sea of positive fundamentals) has been major players manipulating the market to buy up as many coins as possible for the next bull run.

They are now positioned and with short interest near ATH's still and long interest languishing at levels not seen for almost a year, it is time to push the price back upwards. This will squeeze the only gamblers who aren't in on the move - retail shorters - who are all sure we will see sub $100 coins. The squeeze will signal the start of the next bull run and drive the price back upwards towards 500 dollars where it will stabilise temporarily.



Once the ETF is announced the price will begin moving upwards rapidly and draw in institutional investors and joe public alike. Online companies will begin offering a discount to buy goods online with bitcoin, creating a persistent use case for widespread adoption of the coin. The price will break 1000 dollars and keep moving upwards resulting in a mania of the like not seen since 2013.

Hopefully

EDIT: Previous low 166.45, current price 248.29

EDIT2: Added the historic btc short swap data..

EDIT3: Added bitcoins day destroyed to show that coins arent really moving despite the price weakness. This is new coins on the move!



EDIT4: Can you see a high volume capitulation event? We thought it was October when the price hit 274 but the move in January was huge..



EDIT5: Added in the btc rich list..no selling from whales, this has all been new coins and leverage..

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[MoreFun]

Shorters gonna short.

[Meuh6879]

next bubble ?
swiss gold standard crash ... gold inflation = bitcoin next buy bubble = all happy !

[MF Doom]

Once the ETF is announced the price will begin moving upwards rapidly and draw in institutional investors and joe public alike. Online companies will begin offering a discount to buy goods online with bitcoin, creating a persistent use case for widespread adoption of the coin. The price will break 1000 dollars and keep moving upwards resulting in a mania of the like not seen since 2013.

Hopefully

This is complete nonsense.  No one knows if the ETF will succeed in drawing any interest at all.  Investors already know about btc, and so does the average joe. And they dont care.  Companies aren't going to expose themselves to the risk involved in dealing with btc.  I think widespread use is possible, but not any time soon.

[NUFCrichard]

The etf is an unknown quantity, it must have some effect when they buy in to the market, unless the Winklevoss twins are happy to sell up at this low price.

[nakaone]

every persons which is not completely blind can see that we are in a bear bubble.

the announcement of coinbase is nothing but huge; not the amount of raised capital but who is giving the capital.

I assume we see a massive change within the next 1-2 months and me for the very first time believes that this crash was not driven by free markets but by massive manipulation

[MF Doom]

every persons which is not completely blind can see that we are in a bear bubble.

the announcement of coinbase is nothing but huge; not the amount of raised capital but who is giving the capital.

I assume we see a massive change within the next 1-2 months and me for the very first time believes that this crash was not driven by free markets but by massive manipulation

the crash was not driven by manipulation, the run-up was.  Now the free market is correcting btc value, I still think were going down in the near term (next 6-8 months).

[bassclef]

every persons which is not completely blind can see that we are in a bear bubble.

the announcement of coinbase is nothing but huge; not the amount of raised capital but who is giving the capital.

I assume we see a massive change within the next 1-2 months and me for the very first time believes that this crash was not driven by free markets but by massive manipulation

I agree. During a bull bubble, predicting unlimited parabolic growth amid euphoria is delusional.

During a bear bubble, predicting single digit coins amid despair is delusional. It works the opposite.

[jaredboice]

I'm with you, Inca.    Yet if there is another big dip, it will have to be short lived at this point. There's too much positive momentum in VC funding and infrastructure development for this bear market to continue for too much longer

[Morecoin Freeman]

The bearwhale is walking on his last legs.

[ndnh]

The entire 'crash' of inexplicable selling (in a sea of positive fundamentals) has been major players manipulating the market to buy up as many coins as possible for the next bull run.

This is a solid fact people are overlooking. The entire price drop (for the past few weeks) looks staged.

(read my personal text)

[inca]

the crash was not driven by manipulation, the run-up was.  Now the free market is correcting btc value, I still think were going down in the near term (next 6-8 months).

The latest move downwards (from below 600) is probably one of the clearer moves of direct market manipulation I have ever seen. Up there with gold moving vertically down 50 dollars when the SNB announced it would peg to the euro or when QE4EVER was announced last year by the FED.

A single glance at bfxdata shows 24,350 coins are currently borrowed in BTC swaps for shorts. This is virtually at the ATH despite a price 85% down from the actual ATH. A lot of small traders are expecting price drops. Yet those drops aren't happening and once the market begins to collectively realise we aren't going lower, there is only one way for it to go. And those coins need to be bought back. The average number of coins swapped for short contracts through most of 2014 was between 5,000 and 10,000 - mainly closer to 5,000. The change since august 2014 is quite instructive to observe. Short interest has risen 500% since then when the price was 580 ish. Short interest soared from 5,000 upwards, fell back after a major selloff, then rose even higher to where we are now.  

So what I am saying is that most of this entire move is manipulated with the use of leveraged selling into the market, allowing major players to accumulate astonishing amounts of bitcoin in the recent capitulation low, probably off exchange.

The great thing is we will find out over the coming months, won't we. Either the price will nose dive into the ground (because ..the chart..but the chart!..oh shiii) and the former CEO of Citi will have chucked away millions of dollars betting on bitcoin (today investing in coinbase) or it will rise. And if it rises, it will rise very quickly indeed - the bitcoin price is currently a football being held under the water - something that is hard to do for very long.

[xDan]

VC funding continues to pour into the space ignoring the bitcoin price entirely (75,000,000 USD in coinbase today including investment from US banking partners).

This news made me smile! Banks investing? Those are the smart banks.

However, I find it hard to believe the bear market can end with so much positive sentiment in the OP post. Us bulls gotta tone it down, trick the bears into thinking we've given up. (See my sig.)

[jaredboice]

VC funding continues to pour into the space ignoring the bitcoin price entirely (75,000,000 USD in coinbase today including investment from US banking partners).

This news made me smile! Banks investing? Those are the smart banks.

However, I find it hard to believe the bear market can end with so much positive sentiment in the OP post. Us bulls gotta tone it down, trick the bears into thinking we've given up. (See my sig.)

Would that make us Trolls at that point?  Hanging around for hours upon hours posting in a forum about a topic we no longer believe in? LOL

[inca]

Updated the post with the leveraged shorts added in..

[inca]

Added a couple of other charts..

[Chef Ramsay]

Yep, I totally agree with the sentiments being put forth by inca. The last 6 months do feel staged and while the ATH price was quite surprising, it's even more unbelievable to be at the prices we're at - not that I'm obsessively complaining as I definitely took advantage of it and grabbed my share and still am. The real bull whales were preparing this market for their timeline this whole time and lots of unfortunate people sold at huge losses and this upcoming short squeeze will be even worse depending on various leveraging. This is why I've always felt it wise to hold most of what you got and play with your bonus chips cause you never know what's going on behind the scenes and when things can change. It definitely takes a lot of sand to be able to put up with this kind of market. After going through this last bear market in bitcoin, you can pretty much put up with most other things in life more easily. 

[SmoothCurves]

the crash was not driven by manipulation, the run-up was.  Now the free market is correcting btc value, I still think were going down in the near term (next 6-8 months).

The latest move downwards (from below 600) is probably one of the clearer moves of direct market manipulation I have ever seen. Up there with gold moving vertically down 50 dollars when the SNB announced it would peg to the euro or when QE4EVER was announced last year by the FED.

A single glance at bfxdata shows 24,350 coins are currently borrowed in BTC swaps for shorts. This is virtually at the ATH despite a price 85% down from the actual ATH. A lot of small traders are expecting price drops. Yet those drops aren't happening and once the market begins to collectively realise we aren't going lower, there is only one way for it to go. And those coins need to be bought back. The average number of coins swapped for short contracts through most of 2014 was between 5,000 and 10,000 - mainly closer to 5,000. The change since august 2014 is quite instructive to observe. Short interest has risen 500% since then when the price was 580 ish. Short interest soared from 5,000 upwards, fell back after a major selloff, then rose even higher to where we are now.  

So what I am saying is that most of this entire move is manipulated with the use of leveraged selling into the market, allowing major players to accumulate astonishing amounts of bitcoin in the recent capitulation low, probably off exchange.

The great thing is we will find out over the coming months, won't we. Either the price will nose dive into the ground (because ..the chart..but the chart!..oh shiii) and the former CEO of Citi will have chucked away millions of dollars betting on bitcoin (today investing in coinbase) or it will rise. And if it rises, it will rise very quickly indeed - the bitcoin price is currently a football being held under the water - something that is hard to do for very long.

This is what the football surfacing might look like: https://www.tradingview.com/v/dHbn7XZ4/

[okthen]

Great stuff! Though I think we'll probably have some low volume stability before the beginning of the next bull market.
But let it come, we're patient

[bitluryz]

@inca
You are right, this manipulation is obvious, i also found it a long time ago.
Your Topic is a problem for the invisible hand