152$ was the bottom? (July 2013 comparison)

[Hyena]

To quote bassclef from this recent topic:

Having identified both fears, it's fairly easy to see how they are manipulated for profit. Bad news often accompanies bear markets for the same reason good news accompanies bull markets. They are often timed this way to maximize profits for investors. During bull markets, investors can call their friends at CNBC and unwittingly the anchors and news outlets become stock pumpers. They don't know any better, but the smart money does. Why did good news about the dollar come out recently? Because it's at the top of a bull run and those who accumulated months ago need plenty of buy orders to sell into. Good news almost always accompanies market tops to tempt "the herd" into buying through fear. Now do you understand, on this forum and others, why there are so many negative trolls during bear markets and positive trolls during bull markets? They are not there to be your friend, that's for sure!

To test this theory, look at stocks that are being "pumped" on mainstream news outlets. Note the price and return a few months later--likely it will be lower. A good example is the dollar which has been in a steady uptrend for quite some time. Check out recent news, like this gem: http://www.wsj.com/articles/dont-buck-the-dollar-trend-heard-on-the-street-1421189831. There is a chart with the words "Fly Like an Eagle." Are large investors stockpiling dollars at this price? Probably not, but they need someone to sell to, and they know the dumb-dumb public will fall for this. Understanding how this process works, again and again, and how the herd falls for it again and again, is key to understanding how markets operate.

On the 14th of January 2015 this uber bearish article was published:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/14/bitcoin-is-revealed-a-ponzi-scheme-for-redistributing-wealth-from-one-libertarian-to-another/

Just right after fall to 152$ to encourage people into selling even more bitcoins. It's been long time since we last saw such volume. Putting it all together, I started to suspect that what we are witnessing is the end of the year long bear market. Last time this happened was in July 2013 when we bottomed at 65$. My question is --- is 152$ the new 65$? If that's so we should slowly but surely return to 450$, consolidate there for a while and then enter into new bubble phase (May 2015).



The buy/sell walls have changed notably. We can see that the walls are not equal at all these days but I remember that they were rather equally shaped over a long period of time before we fell to 152$. This makes me wonder how the walls looked like on the 13th of July 2013. Can anyone seek out the picture of the buy/sell walls from that time? I searched the wall observer thread but didn't find any good comparison to this:


So what other similarities do we have between 14th of January 2015 and 6th of July 2013? Turns out that during the next 7 days after the violent crash the price recovered by ~40% and in 2013 it never returned back. It is 7 days since we fell to 152$ and we are up ~40% already! Look at the comparison below:



Also, do we have any uber bear news from the 7th of July 2013 so that we could compare them with the news from 14th of January 2015? I personally just bought back the bitcoins I sold at 300$, so I'm bullish from now on.

[jaredboice]

There's certainly much more upside than downside at this point!

[SnokkomBTC]

Thanks for the input! I hope you're right. I believe also that 152 $ was the bottom. This week is critical

[1Referee]

There's certainly much more upside than downside at this point!

How do you know that...

I heard that also when Bitcoin was $500 $400 $300

When it dipped below $300 people said "Look at the difficulty! It's up by 14% so Bitcoin will for sure go above $300 anytime soon"

Instead, it dipped below $200 not long after that.

[DeadCoin]

$152 is the new $275 (and we know how that ended)

[Hyena]

There's certainly much more upside than downside at this point!

How do you know that...

I heard that also when Bitcoin was $500 $400 $300

When it dipped below $300 people said "Look at the difficulty! It's up by 14% so Bitcoin will for sure go above $300 anytime soon"

Instead, it dipped below $200 not long after that.

There will have to come a day that actually is the bottom, right? (Given that in the long term we are mostly bulls here.)

With each call the chances of IT being the right one will increase . Same goes to your life too --- with each day you live the chances of your death increase.

[tadakaluri]

It may be better than worse!!!

[gentlemand]

Surely the previous year and the most recent drop is an object lesson in disregarding going on any previous market data. It's too young, fast moving and too piddly to look to earlier performances for guidance.

[WiiD]

This week is critical

I started a thread with this but it was deleted.

[jaredboice]

There's certainly much more upside than downside at this point!

How do you know that...

I heard that also when Bitcoin was $500 $400 $300

When it dipped below $300 people said "Look at the difficulty! It's up by 14% so Bitcoin will for sure go above $300 anytime soon"

Instead, it dipped below $200 not long after that.

I don't "know" anything anymore than you "know" otherwise.  This is all speculation.  With that said, it would appear there is a lot less risk than there was at higher prices due to the fact that even after this 85% correction (one of many in its lifespan) we are still up over 8 Million Percent in 5 years...and hundreds of millions in venture capital haven't even come to fruition yet.  It's still early.

Could there be more downside?  Sure.  But from my perspective I'm betting that we're going to be turning around sooner than later.

Thanks for your comments

[Dilla]

We haven't had a sharp upwards V correction. We had a slight V correction to 230s then back down to the 210s, then sideways. I really think it's just a side step down. But who knows...

[ronald98]

Why compare the 2013 crash to this one? The 2011 crash was the closest because it took the longest to fully recover from to date.

[kwukduck]

Lol  at Washington post.... They just don't stop repeating each others FUD don't they?

[Tzupy]

Why compare the 2013 crash to this one? The 2011 crash was the closest because it took the longest to fully recover from to date.

We should compare with 2011 because 2013 April - July (Feb- April too) was faked by Markus.

[spazzdla]

$152 is the new $275 (and we know how that ended)

This is exactly what I think

[SmoothCurves]

Why compare the 2013 crash to this one? The 2011 crash was the closest because it took the longest to fully recover from to date.

We should compare with 2011 because 2013 April - July (Feb- April too) was faked by Markus.

If true, then 2014 was correction wave 2. The next bull run would have an ATH at around 28k usd.

[Hyena]

$152 is the new $275 (and we know how that ended)

This is exactly what I think

That's what they want you to think! Did you even read my opening post?

[God27]

Do you honestly feel that $152 will be the bottom? Im surprised.

If so, then I correctly predicted bottom in the 5th post of this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=913423.msg10030218#msg10030218

Do you really think someone like me can call bottom? I don't think so. Then you say a broken clock is right twice a day....

What's next.....you will be surprised again....

[WTrader]

To quote bassclef from this recent topic:

Having identified both fears, it's fairly easy to see how they are manipulated for profit. Bad news often accompanies bear markets for the same reason good news accompanies bull markets. They are often timed this way to maximize profits for investors. During bull markets, investors can call their friends at CNBC and unwittingly the anchors and news outlets become stock pumpers. They don't know any better, but the smart money does. Why did good news about the dollar come out recently? Because it's at the top of a bull run and those who accumulated months ago need plenty of buy orders to sell into. Good news almost always accompanies market tops to tempt "the herd" into buying through fear. Now do you understand, on this forum and others, why there are so many negative trolls during bear markets and positive trolls during bull markets? They are not there to be your friend, that's for sure!

To test this theory, look at stocks that are being "pumped" on mainstream news outlets. Note the price and return a few months later--likely it will be lower. A good example is the dollar which has been in a steady uptrend for quite some time. Check out recent news, like this gem: [Suspicious link removed]j.com/articles/dont-buck-the-dollar-trend-heard-on-the-street-1421189831[/url]. There is a chart with the words "Fly Like an Eagle." Are large investors stockpiling dollars at this price? Probably not, but they need someone to sell to, and they know the dumb-dumb public will fall for this. Understanding how this process works, again and again, and how the herd falls for it again and again, is key to understanding how markets operate.

On the 14th of January 2015 this uber bearish article was published:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/14/bitcoin-is-revealed-a-ponzi-scheme-for-redistributing-wealth-from-one-libertarian-to-another/

Just right after fall to 152$ to encourage people into selling even more bitcoins. It's been long time since we last saw such volume. Putting it all together, I started to suspect that what we are witnessing is the end of the year long bear market. Last time this happened was in July 2013 when we bottomed at 65$. My question is --- is 152$ the new 65$? If that's so we should slowly but surely return to 450$, consolidate there for a while and then enter into new bubble phase (May 2015).

http://s14.postimg.org/h5c7fo5wx/bottom.png

The buy/sell walls have changed notably. We can see that the walls are not equal at all these days but I remember that they were rather equally shaped over a long period of time before we fell to 152$. This makes me wonder how the walls looked like on the 13th of July 2013. Can anyone seek out the picture of the buy/sell walls from that time? I searched the wall observer thread but didn't find any good comparison to this:
http://s12.postimg.org/lnnyksksd/walls2015.png

So what other similarities do we have between 14th of January 2015 and 6th of July 2013? Turns out that during the next 7 days after the violent crash the price recovered by ~40% and in 2013 it never returned back. It is 7 days since we fell to 152$ and we are up ~40% already! Look at the comparison below:
http://s24.postimg.org/3uqi0kfet/chart_july2013.png
http://s14.postimg.org/t8ml0cnap/chart_januar2015.png

Also, do we have any uber bear news from the 7th of July 2013 so that we could compare them with the news from 14th of January 2015? I personally just bought back the bitcoins I sold at 300$, so I'm bullish from now on.

In all honesty, the conditions of the markets is one bitcoin has never seen before, both in scale and extent.

I would not be surprised to see bitcoin sink very very low below 50 USD before there is any semblance of sideways movement before another bull run.

[Hyena]

Do you honestly feel that $152 will be the bottom? Im surprised.

If so, then I correctly predicted bottom in the 5th post of this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=913423.msg10030218#msg10030218

Do you really think someone like me can call bottom? I don't think so. Then you say a broken clock is right twice a day....

What's next.....you will be surprised again....

NICE

Last Sunday I was in a bus and at some point I randomly looked out the window and guess what I saw?! There was a car driving right beside the bus and its number plate had "666 BAZ". From here I deduce that we will be returning 666$ per BTC prices soon. But seriously, look at the order book in stamp. Just look at it! Look at it!


That sell wall is like a little midget about to get annihilated by a giant. Also, in my dream in September I saw 150$ bitcoins. The fall to 152$ was exactly dramatic enough to actually be the bottom. As the price cannot go up forever, it cannot go down forever. Fundamentals haven't changed. The mid-term bear market has to come to an end at some point and I believe this is it.