Hash Rate Will NEVER Drop EVER! Read why

[adaseb]

Many are speculating that the hashrate will drop because mining is no longer profitable and they will shut down their rigs. While this is true one needs to remember that unless the mining equipments gets DESTROYED or put in STORAGE most likely it will be shipped to another party who will turn the equipment back on.

Since nobody will DESTROY the mining equipment it will be put to use in 2 ways

1) Turned off temporarily: The miner might turn off the equipment for a couple weeks or months and see if conditions improve. If they dont, it will be moved to option 2.


2) Sold and Shipped to someone else: Many around the world have dirt cheap to free electricity. These are the ones who are buying up these cheap miners due to the low risk and high reward scenario.

The MINING EQUIPMENT and HASHRATE is NEVER destroyed only its MOVED. The hashrate might spike up or down for the next couple of weeks but its only due to the fact that the equipment is temporarily turned off because its currently in shipping.


Discuss

[alh]

This is patently incorrect. There is mining hardware that has been turned off and will never return to hash another hash. Truly old ASIC's and most GPU's are no longer hashing. While I am not predicting any long term decline in hashrate, there are short term drops, and I think we are seeing a moderating of the increases. There is mining hardware that truly get sold for scrap, never to hash again. The OP is correct that it takes quite a while for non-current and inefficient hardware to truly stop hashing. Predictions of "All S1's are no longer hashing" is equally false.

[seriouscoin]

WTF is this shit?

OP did you just fucking eat a bag of dicks? I cant imagine someone can be so dumb yet still able to stumble their way on to this forum.


Ask CPU miners and see if they "MOVED" those CPUs around. This section never cease to amaze me.


Here is what i found so far about bitcoin community:

+ Bitcoin General Discusion: 50/50 getting bitcoin or genuine interested

+ Speculation: Full of greedy fcks use shills, sockpuppet to lure emotional traders into their slaughter house. 90% of them dont give rats shit about bitcoin

+ Mining: 90% retards, 5% Smart, and 5% liars/delusional.

[Jammalan the Prophet]

Hash Rate Will NEVER Drop EVER! Read why

1) It has dropped in the past

2) is dropping now https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   42,033,923,545 (- 4.41%)

See that big - ?

[SirChiko]

You didn't also think that they can turn the hww toward altcoins? So it is minus.

[hedgy73]

WTF is this shit?

OP did you just fucking eat a bag of dicks? I cant imagine someone can be so dumb yet still able to stumble their way on to this forum.

Fuck that made me laugh nice one seriouscoin!

[NeuroticFish]

You are wrong.
I don't think that more than 10% of the HW is sold. Did you ship outside US? Was that cheap? No.

People are also more careful and think twice before buying new mining HW.

So... yeah... hashrate will drop. And it's actually OK.

[philipma1957]

I deleted this as too racy.

__________________________________________
__________________________________________
Back to the OP's point of view the diff is dropping plain and simple.   -5% looks possible

But many people will hold gear and hope for a price jump then power back up.

I can see myself turning off some sp20's and holding them until next winter.

 My summer power rate is 16 cents.
 In the  winter it drops to 13 cents factor in the heating of my home and the winter  power price for me is 10    cents.

[DoubleTrouble]

The overall hashrate is falling right now... Mining is becoming less profitable and so many people are turning there rigs off for at least the time being.

[btcshiner]

__________________________________________
Back to the OP's point of view the diff is dropping plain and simple.   -5% looks possible

But many people will hold gear and hope for a price jump then power back up.

I can see myself turning off some sp20's and holding them until next winter.

 My summer power rate is 16 cents.
 In the  winter it drops to 13 cents factor in the heating of my home and the winter  power price for me is 10    cents.

I tend to agree that in the winter there is an added benefit to the heat that hardware puts out.  In the summer my electric bill jumps 2-3 fold and btc needs to be able to pay for my ac bill to instead of it replacing my heating bill in the winter.

[adaseb]

You guys are forgetting that there are manufacteurs who are developing more and more efficient mining hardware at the moment. Pretty soon we will see 1Th/s per 100Watt mining rigs. Depending on the cost. Farms will start to keep hashing again and hashrate will go up.

A -5% decrease is hashrate is nothing. I am talking about the overrall view. In  6 months or 12 months? Will the hashrate be lower?

[philipma1957]

You guys are forgetting that there are manufacteurs who are developing more and more efficient mining hardware at the moment. Pretty soon we will see 1Th/s per 100Watt mining rigs. Depending on the cost. Farms will start to keep hashing again and hashrate will go up.

A -5% decrease is hashrate is nothing. I am talking about the overrall view. In  6 months or 12 months? Will the hashrate be lower?

no.   you are correct  it may be developed it may work great   it may be 1th per 100 watt.  it may be cheap  say 400 usd for a 200 watt 2th miner.

and that may serve to lower price and put downward pressure on diff.

all this started in late june -- early july last year.

the s-3 intro put downward pressure  on s-1's

then in nov  the s-5 and sp20 put downward pressure  on s-3's


so in may or june the ?  will put downward pressure on the s-5's and sp20's

all of this has slowed growth and lowered prices.

I do not see much growth  unless btc price gets a lot higher.-------------------and what will do this?

If you did not dump your s-3's  in nov or oct you are kind of stuck with them. Would you just turn off all your s-3's and buy s-5's?

[hedgy73]

Home mining is done unless you have shit cheap electricity and the latest efficient hardware and even then its marginally profitable with current btc price.

[Bananana]

Many are speculating that the hashrate will drop because mining is no longer profitable and they will shut down their rigs. While this is true one needs to remember that unless the mining equipments gets DESTROYED or put in STORAGE most likely it will be shipped to another party who will turn the equipment back on.

Since nobody will DESTROY the mining equipment it will be put to use in 2 ways

1) Turned off temporarily: The miner might turn off the equipment for a couple weeks or months and see if conditions improve. If they dont, it will be moved to option 2.


2) Sold and Shipped to someone else: Many around the world have dirt cheap to free electricity. These are the ones who are buying up these cheap miners due to the low risk and high reward scenario.

The MINING EQUIPMENT and HASHRATE is NEVER destroyed only its MOVED. The hashrate might spike up or down for the next couple of weeks but its only due to the fact that the equipment is temporarily turned off because its currently in shipping.


Discuss

Agree, but not 100% of it. There will be a small percentage of mining equipment stopped permanently due to low hash rate, heavy and bad energy efficient. It would be even more costly just to ship it to someone for free then to just buy a new one.

[jermwerty]

FALSE.

This PILE of hundreds of decommissioned Avalons disagrees with you:

http://www.thecoinsman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/dead-avalons.jpg

http://www.thecoinsman.com/2014/08/bitcoin/inside-chinese-bitcoin-mine/

Once you have the cooling, power, and everything setup to run Miners you start to realize the PSUs are the part of the system you will keep the longest.

[mavericklm]

Jan 27 2015    41,272,873,895    -6.14%    295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015    43,971,662,056    8.20%    314,761,417 GH/s

[BTCish]

Jan 27 2015    41,272,873,895    -6.14%    295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015    43,971,662,056    8.20%    314,761,417 GH/s

It may be temporaly turned off.

[kendog77]

It's simple, really. Once mining equipment no longer earns as much as it costs to run, it gets turned off.

With BTC at $260, right now gear that uses ~1W/GH is pretty close to breakeven at 10 cents / kwh.

[davejh]

Jan 27 2015    41,272,873,895    -6.14%    295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015    43,971,662,056    8.20%    314,761,417 GH/s

It may be temporaly turned off.

Much more likely that both of these are more a result of statistical variance. Everyone seems to like speculating about various stratagems that different miners might use but the reality is that every difficulty period there's a huge amount of noise. The noise averages out over a much longer period which is why the graphs look quite smooth at the level of a couple of years

More on variances when the hash rate is unchanging: http://hashingit.com/analysis/28-reach-for-the-ear-defenders

[notlist3d]

Jan 27 2015    41,272,873,895    -6.14%    295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015    43,971,662,056    8.20%    314,761,417 GH/s

It may be temporaly turned off.

That is a possibility.  I personally go the selling route when it is too close on profit margins. 

I do think some will go offline for good.  I don't agree with first post on all move on to a new home and keep running.  Some do go offline permanently at a point.  There have to be a ton of 333 MHz asic usb's that are offline for good sitting around some miners house.