Rabo (OP)
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January 24, 2015, 03:25:26 PM |
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Hi,
I have no experience short selling but I debate shorting now. Good idea? Anyone with experience? BTC seems overbought...
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Tzupy
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January 24, 2015, 03:29:05 PM |
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No, risk is too high, not worth it yet. If in the near future support won't hold and a downtrend will become apparent, then it may be worth and not risky.
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Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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knight22
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January 24, 2015, 03:44:08 PM |
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Bear market is over so good luck with that.
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tmfp
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January 24, 2015, 03:48:37 PM Last edit: January 24, 2015, 04:06:31 PM by tmfp |
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Hi,
I have no experience short selling but I debate shorting now. Good idea? Anyone with experience? BTC seems overbought...
There are indicators which can help define whether a market is overbought. I use RSI in daily trading and it proves reliable if read correctly. Many people don't agree that technical analysis is relevant to Bitcoin, I disagree. This simple chart shows the RSI and Fibionacci retracement indicators for Bitcoin for the last three months. The retracement lines help to show where bounces within the down trend might reach before failing. As you can see, Bitcoin could rise to around 310 and still have only retraced 50% of the recent move down from the 420+ highs of November. The dips below the RSI red line show when it became oversold and rallied. In conventional RSI reading, the downtrend will stay intact until a reading of over 50 is established, currently about 42, a level which has more or less been a lid on it for the last month. TL:DR So, no, I don't think it's overbought yet, but it's still in a down trend. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FixyXrOQ.png&t=665&c=FHCwcr-OtYT_yQ)
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Extraordinary Claims require Extraordinary Evidence
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TrollinU
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January 24, 2015, 03:54:52 PM |
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Bear market is over so good luck with that.
lol Because of a comparison of 2011 and this downtrend? Yeah right. Just like the $339 or $275 bottoms right? Keep watching.
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cypherdoc
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January 24, 2015, 04:09:30 PM |
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short now and die.
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NotHatinJustTrollin
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January 24, 2015, 04:10:49 PM |
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Shorting now is risky, picking tops when price is heavily bulltrapping is not a good idea.
If you are in BTC and you wanna take profit sure, but shorting right now is asking for trouble.
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knight22
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January 24, 2015, 04:11:37 PM |
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Bear market is over so good luck with that.
lol Because of a comparison of 2011 and this downtrend? Yeah right. Just like the $339 or $275 bottoms right? Keep watching. Please go on and short ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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marvinrouge
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January 24, 2015, 04:14:12 PM |
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Hi,
I have no experience short selling but I debate shorting now. Good idea? Anyone with experience? BTC seems overbought...
BUY SIGNAL To da mooon ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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Rabo (OP)
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January 24, 2015, 04:16:49 PM |
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Hi,
I have no experience short selling but I debate shorting now. Good idea? Anyone with experience? BTC seems overbought...
There are indicators which can help define whether a market is overbought. I use RSI in daily trading and it proves reliable if read correctly. Many people don't agree that technical analysis is relevant to Bitcoin, I disagree. This simple chart shows the RSI and Fibionacci retracement indicators for Bitcoin for the last three months. The retracement lines help to show where bounces within the down trend might reach before failing. As you can see, Bitcoin could rise to around 310 and still have only retraced 50% of the recent move down from the 420+ highs of November. The dips below the RSI red line show when it became oversold and rallied. In conventional RSI reading, the downtrend will stay intact until a reading of over 50 is established, currently about 42, a level which has more or less been a lid on it for the last month. TL:DR So, no, I don't think it's overbought yet, but it's still in a down trend. https://i.imgur.com/ixyXrOQ.pngThank you for your reply. Great explanation!
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Rabo (OP)
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January 24, 2015, 04:23:44 PM |
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Ok I short at $245. Wish me luck. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
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Dilla
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January 24, 2015, 04:35:07 PM |
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We need to test $250s, from there we will see if we retest $100s or keep a pace upwards. I really think people who are thinking this is a repeat of 2011 are forgetting how much has changed since 2011. Wall Street is coming soon. I don't think any of the past cycles will matter once they come in. It will be a whole new ball game.
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damnek
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January 24, 2015, 04:36:09 PM |
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Wall Street is coming soon. I don't think any of the past cycles will matter once they come in. It will be a whole new ball game.
So true.
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Morecoin Freeman
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January 24, 2015, 04:39:53 PM |
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Ok I short at $245. Wish me luck. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) The ballsy thing to do.
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Ask the stranger he knows who you really are.
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TrollinU
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January 24, 2015, 04:40:46 PM |
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Bear market is over so good luck with that.
lol Because of a comparison of 2011 and this downtrend? Yeah right. Just like the $339 or $275 bottoms right? Keep watching. Please go on and short ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I'm not shorting right now, but the bear market is not over yet. I'll wait for the top of this sucker rally. Should be soon. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) We need to test $250s, from there we will see if we retest $100s or keep a pace upwards. I really think people who are thinking this is a repeat of 2011 are forgetting how much has changed since 2011. Wall Street is coming soon. I don't think any of the past cycles will matter once they come in. It will be a whole new ball game.
If it's part of the historical price, it matters. Wall street isn't coming soon. At least not "soon" like the soon in my reply to knight22. And the circlejerk begins. ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) A little early to celebrate don't ya think? We aren't even out of the $200s
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AtheistAKASaneBrain
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January 24, 2015, 04:42:47 PM |
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Ok I short at $245. Wish me luck. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) You sold at 245, means you have a safe margin to make 40 dollars as I expect another test of 200ish waters.. lower than that and you are on risk, still doable at 200-170, lower than that and then you require balls of steel to hold on fiat. Just my view.
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SirChiko
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January 24, 2015, 04:42:58 PM |
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Ok I short at $245. Wish me luck. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) With a bit of luck you will success but you will probably loose alot.
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The only online casino on which i won something. I made 17mBTC from 1mBTC in like 15 minutes. This is not paid AD!
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tmfp
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January 24, 2015, 04:45:27 PM |
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Ok I short at $245. Wish me luck. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Do you have an exit strategy? Never open a trade without one. At what level of loss will you accept your original decision was wrong and get out? I ask because the 1 hour chart is quite interesting. I can see the logic of shorting it now, because it is currently again attempting to break through the 238/240 previous highs and should it not be third time lucky and fail again, then it would be likely to test support around 225. But you are talking about selling at a level just above resistance, after it has broken through: not a good idea. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FtIOLMpd.png&t=665&c=Y3A3uTPnV-Tb0A)
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Extraordinary Claims require Extraordinary Evidence
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Rabo (OP)
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January 24, 2015, 04:50:17 PM |
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Ok I short at $245. Wish me luck. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Do you have an exit strategy? Never open a trade without one. At what level of loss will you accept your original decision was wrong and get out? No exit strategy. I'm really brave. Plan on taking profit around $230.
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tmfp
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January 24, 2015, 04:52:31 PM |
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No exit strategy. I'm really brave stupid.
FTFY ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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Extraordinary Claims require Extraordinary Evidence
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