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Author Topic: Putting the first Bitcoin bubble into context  (Read 2933 times)
hazek
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July 15, 2012, 11:26:11 PM
 #1

I was wondering, do people realize just how crazy and obvious the first Bitcoin bubble was?

Take a look at this:

Code:
Timestamp Open High Low Close Volume (BTC) Volume (Currency) Weighted Price
2011-05-31 00:00:00 8.8 9.4998 8.1 8.741 45794.43 406882.27 8.88
2011-06-01 00:00:00 8.741 9.6987 8.3 9.57 43479.96 400564.35 9.21
2011-06-02 00:00:00 9.57 10.888 9.5 10.6 41047.27 415112.72 10.11
2011-06-03 00:00:00 10.6 14.499 10.5752 14.29 72980.24 954513.54 13.08
2011-06-04 00:00:00 14.29 18.89 14.04 18.89 44475.34 729670.85 16.41
2011-06-05 00:00:00 18.89 18.998 16.2 16.7 24278.97 420612.47 17.32
2011-06-06 00:00:00 16.7 19.23 16.4513 18.5499 55092.47 1016927.39 18.46
2011-06-07 00:00:00 18.5499 24.32 18.26 23.9234 53715.04 1068903.32 19.9
2011-06-08 00:00:00 23.9234 31.9099 22.2135 29.6 104925.16 2858820.38 27.25
2011-06-09 00:00:00 29.6 31.5 26.151 28.919 62933.66 1861589.64 29.58
2011-06-10 00:00:00 28.919 29.399 20.01 23.9497 92208.2 2274786.4 24.67
2011-06-11 00:00:00 23.9497 23.99 13 14.6511 121869.97 2146587.96 17.61
2011-06-12 00:00:00 14.6511 24.99 10.25 18.5464 151194.16 2451134.56 16.21
2011-06-13 00:00:00 18.5464 24.5 16 19.84 73421.79 1476239.59 20.11
2011-06-14 00:00:00 19.84 20.5 18.001 19.28 36155.99 696003.98 19.25
2011-06-15 00:00:00 19.28 20 19.022 19.49 27711.9 545336.14 19.68
2011-06-16 00:00:00 19.49 19.89 17 17 49202.14 927743.42 18.86
2011-06-17 00:00:00 17 18.34 13 15.681 108623.77 1684353.23 15.51
2011-06-18 00:00:00 15.681 16.9499 15.052 16.89 35536.55 569949.34 16.04
2011-06-19 00:00:00 16.89 18.8766 16.85 17.51 30176.74 536267.38 17.77

Quote
EDIT: hack happened on the 19th of June, after the last entry above

Watch the close price! In a matter of just 8 days we went from 8.741 to 29.6, which means the closing price more than tripled in just over a week. Well if this is a baseline, clearly we haven't again experienced something like it even with the recent price jump.

Don't misunderstand me, we still might be speeding a little bit right now but in the context of the first bubble I don't think we should worry all that much just yet.

What do you think using the first bubble as a baseline for this kind of thought?

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July 15, 2012, 11:33:22 PM
 #2

I agree that price movements currently are no where near a "bubble". Looks like a solid base and we will back and fill from here slowly and rise slowly as we approach block reward halving and possibly network hashrate increase.

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July 16, 2012, 12:14:36 AM
 #3

I'm not sure what the point of this thread is. The first bubble was people like me that went wtf is Bitcoin? I gonna get me some! A few saavy speculators played pump-n-dump to take advantage of us. Little do they know that the last laugh is on them, because I now know what Bitcoin is and the speculators that thought it was a fad are now saying wtf. There will be more bubbles, but they will always find a higher floor.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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July 16, 2012, 02:25:50 AM
 #4

I'm not sure what the point of this thread is. The first bubble was people like me that went wtf is Bitcoin? I gonna get me some! A few saavy speculators played pump-n-dump to take advantage of us. Little do they know that the last laugh is on them, because I now know what Bitcoin is and the speculators that thought it was a fad are now saying wtf. There will be more bubbles, but they will always find a higher floor.
But it could take a loooog time.

Don't believe me? Take a look at the historic silver charts!
The 1980 silver bubble had several echos too... I'm not saying that it will be this way with bitcoin, but it could.

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bb113
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July 16, 2012, 07:55:26 AM
 #5

Putting bitcoin volatility in context, Mystery chart:



The x axis is determined by a rough estimation of how often "the coin gets flipped".
Vladimir
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July 16, 2012, 08:03:56 AM
 #6

If you discount about one week of "irrational exuberance" the price went up only to 15-17$ level, and this is not that crazy. Or at least not such a huge bubble as many think it is.

Now if you take into consideration all those bitcoins "printed" over time and chart total market cap, the chart looks much, much healthier.

Chances are we will see prices above that again before long, it's just an easy double from here.




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organofcorti
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July 16, 2012, 08:24:14 AM
 #7

Putting bitcoin volatility in context, Mystery chart:



The x axis is determined by a rough estimation of how often "the coin gets flipped".

Can you explain in a bit more detail, bitcoinbitcoin113? I'm intrigued.

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July 16, 2012, 12:13:41 PM
 #8

This bubble was popped only because MTgox was hacked.

Which made lots of people think that Bitcoin was hacked...And made them scared.

What would have happened if that would not have happened...$48 $64 $200 $300?



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July 16, 2012, 12:52:24 PM
 #9

This bubble was popped only because MTgox was hacked.

Which made lots of people think that Bitcoin was hacked...And made them scared.

What would have happened if that would not have happened...$48 $64 $200 $300?




No. There was already a drop to ~$8 before they got hacked.

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July 16, 2012, 01:12:48 PM
 #10

Last year was crazy even for a bubble.

A classic bubble comes with a media hype and excited people who wouldn't normally speculate. Such speculation mania was a major factor in the case of Bitcoin. Everyone wanted BTC all of a sudden, without any idea what this type of speculation meant. Bitcoin exchanging degenerated into a "let's all get very rich very fast" scheme.

So, for the current movement... it might go up or down, but to call it a bubble we'd need some sort of additional reasoning besides a recent price rise. And it's true, the comparison is extreme. We're 40-50% up depending on what you compare with, in months. In last year's bubble, such stuff could happen in a single day.
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July 16, 2012, 01:35:31 PM
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The bubble is a lie, zoom out guys.

Set the chart to use all data, for example daily, and to log scale.

See, an endless row of "bubbles".

Iv'e heard people reffering to such market movements as 'volitity'.
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July 16, 2012, 02:52:44 PM
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The bubble is a lie, zoom out guys.

Set the chart to use all data, for example daily, and to log scale.

See, an endless row of "bubbles".

Iv'e heard people reffering to such market movements as 'volitity'.

Hold on to your britches, here come the log charts.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 16, 2012, 03:01:28 PM
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The bubble is a lie, zoom out guys.

Set the chart to use all data, for example daily, and to log scale.

See, an endless row of "bubbles".

Iv'e heard people reffering to such market movements as 'volitity'.

Hold on to your britches, here come the log charts.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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July 16, 2012, 04:06:55 PM
 #14

I was wondering, do people realize just how crazy and obvious the first Bitcoin bubble was?... In a matter of just 8 days we went from 8.741 to 29.6, which means the closing price more than tripled in just over a week...

What do you think using the first bubble as a baseline for this kind of thought?
Like all bubbles, it's easy to see with hindsight.

But before the first bubble, there were many times when the price more than doubled within 8 days. For example, the MtGox closing price went from $1.41 on 22 April 2011 to $3.50 on 30 April 2011, but that wasn't a bubble. It went from $3.33 on 5 May 2011 to $8.20 on 13 May 2011, but that was not a bubble. It went from $0.45 on 28 Jan 2011 to $0.92 on 5 Feb 2011, but that was not a bubble. (There are more examples).

I think you are right that the price tripled within 8 days only once. But at the time, how sure could anyone be that a tripling would be unsustainable when all the doublings had been sustainable?

Long term, you can say that more than 7% per week is unsustainable, but I don't think you can say anything about the short term, without the benefit of hindsight.
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July 16, 2012, 04:29:52 PM
 #15


Don't misunderstand me, we still might be speeding a little bit right now but in the context of the first bubble I don't think we should worry all that much just yet.


this is quite correct.  we just cleared the breakout zone and are heading up.
hazek
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July 16, 2012, 05:11:00 PM
 #16

Never mind this thread because it was written with how the picture looked like when I wrote it but looking at the new picture now I changed my mind. Now it's starting to feel like a pump and dump is in the making. People owning BTC seem to have decided to hold on to them and it seems they will not sell until we clearly enter another down trend, I mean who would sell right now when there's this huge bid wall, right?

I now believe this is the start of a new bubble.

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
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July 16, 2012, 05:15:05 PM
 #17

Never mind this thread because it was written with how the picture looked like when I wrote it but looking at the new picture now I changed my mind. Now it's starting to feel like a pump and dump is in the making. People owning BTC seem to have decided to hold on to them and it seems they will not sell until we clearly enter another down trend, I mean who would sell right now when there's this huge ask bid wall, right?

I now believe this is the start of a new bubble.

FTFY

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 16, 2012, 05:15:16 PM
 #18

Never mind this thread because it was written with how the picture looked like when I wrote it but looking at the new picture now I changed my mind. Now it's starting to feel like a pump and dump is in the making. People owning BTC seem to have decided to hold on to them and it seems they will not sell until we clearly enter another down trend, I mean who would sell right now when there's this huge ask wall, right?

I now believe this is the start of a new bubble.

i highlighted the keyword.  the move til' now has been slow and gradual and backed by fundamentals.  keep in mind that a bubble can last for a long time and go to heights never imagined.  so indeed, if this is the start, we could go go to $100 before it blows.
hazek
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July 16, 2012, 05:21:14 PM
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Ty notme, I can't believe I made that mistake. Tongue

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
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July 16, 2012, 05:24:55 PM
 #20

I mean who would sell right now when there's this huge bid wall, right?

If recent history is any guide, walls can be taken down quite easily. And if we look at the bid depth without the huge bid wall, it is not so healthy.
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