Bitcoin price will reach $25 by the end of the year

[Saturn7]

Well hopefully butterfly labs didn't sell all the BTC they got for the pre orders.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.

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[Dargo]

Well hopefully butterfly labs didn't sell all the BTC they got for the pre orders.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.

Huh? BTC was at 6.4 on 6/23 when they opened the presale. Nowhere near 12 yet. Also, I'm pretty sure Bitpay converted to USD for them. Would have been smart for them to hold the BTC though. 

[Saturn7]

Well hopefully butterfly labs didn't sell all the BTC they got for the pre orders.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.

Huh? BTC was at 6.4 on 6/23 when they opened the presale. Nowhere near 12 yet. Also, I'm pretty sure Bitpay converted to USD for them. Would have been smart for them to hold the BTC though. 

Okay saying nearly doubled was a stretch. I'll make the same post in a week or so 

[ElectricMucus]

Well hopefully butterfly labs didn't sell all the BTC they got for the pre orders.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.

Huh? BTC was at 6.4 on 6/23 when they opened the presale. Nowhere near 12 yet. Also, I'm pretty sure Bitpay converted to USD for them. Would have been smart for them to hold the BTC though.  

Bitpay still has the BTC, they refuse to sell em which is the main reason we are up this fast.
People buy BTC to preorder BFL units > price goes up > Bitpay refuses to deal on the exchanges and is looking for private deals > missing selling pressure > others notice that and start buying because it's easy driving up the price.

[Energizer]

Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.

No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.

So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?

[mobodick]

Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.

No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.

So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?

Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..

RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!

[Mushoz]

Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.

No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.

So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?

Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..

RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!

Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.

[genuise]

...
Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.

And what it was?

[Mushoz]

...
Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.

And what it was?

A trading platform with leverage. All trades were done either on Mtgox as a hedge or internally if two different people took opposite positions.
Bitcoinica fucked up a lot of things (Or atleast the Intersango guys did), yes. But it wasn't a bucketshop. Bitcoinica never took positions against their clients.

[Dargo]

Well hopefully butterfly labs didn't sell all the BTC they got for the pre orders.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.

Huh? BTC was at 6.4 on 6/23 when they opened the presale. Nowhere near 12 yet. Also, I'm pretty sure Bitpay converted to USD for them. Would have been smart for them to hold the BTC though.  

Bitpay still has the BTC, they refuse to sell em which is the main reason we are up this fast.
People buy BTC to preorder BFL units > price goes up > Bitpay refuses to deal on the exchanges and is looking for private deals > missing selling pressure > others notice that and start buying because it's easy driving up the price.

Your evidence for this? By "the BTC" do you mean all the coins, even those from 6/23 sales? They have said that they won't just dump coins on the market b/c they don't want to drive down price. But otherwise they seem eager to sell. If you have a link or something showing that they are holding most of the coins, I'd like to see it - as far as I can tell they haven't said much about what exactly they are doing with the coins. What little they did say suggests to me that they are selling the coins gradually - i.e. as quickly as they can without driving down price. 

[mobodick]

Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.

No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.

So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?

Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..

RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!

Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.

For bitcoinica to NOT be a bucketshop they would need to push through their users transactions to mtgox.
They were not, they kept the transactions local most of the time and once in a while they did a bulk transaction with mtgox.
So most of the time people on bitcoinica were only playing against oter people on bitcoinica.
That is a bucketshop.

I think even Zhou refered to it as his little bucketshop.
The sad thing is that a shop like bitcoinica cannot actually function without having some bucketshop characteristics. The infrastructure is just not there to do it all in real time so what Zhou actually created was pretty impressive.
It was just impossible to NOT make it a bucketshop and still offer leverage afaik.

from wikipedia:
"As defined by the U.S. Supreme Court a Bucket shop is "[a]n establishment, nominally for the transaction of a stock exchange business, or business of similar character, but really for the registration of bets, or wagers, usually for small amounts, on the rise or fall of the prices of stocks, grain, oil, etc., there being no transfer or delivery of the stock or commodities nominally dealt in." "

This was what bitcoinica was except for the brief times where they did bulk updates against mtgox to bring their shop in balance.
Again, MOST of the time people played against other people there.
As long as people understand this i don't think there is anything wrong with that...

[notme]

Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.

No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.

So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?

Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..

RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!

Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.

For bitcoinica to NOT be a bucketshop they would need to push through their users transactions to mtgox.
They were not, they kept the transactions local most of the time and once in a while they did a bulk transaction with mtgox.
So most of the time people on bitcoinica were only playing against oter people on bitcoinica.
That is a bucketshop.

I think even Zhou refered to it as his little bucketshop.
The sad thing is that a shop like bitcoinica cannot actually function without having some bucketshop characteristics. The infrastructure is just not there to do it all in real time so what Zhou actually created was pretty impressive.
It was just impossible to NOT make it a bucketshop and still offer leverage afaik.

from wikipedia:
"As defined by the U.S. Supreme Court a Bucket shop is "[a]n establishment, nominally for the transaction of a stock exchange business, or business of similar character, but really for the registration of bets, or wagers, usually for small amounts, on the rise or fall of the prices of stocks, grain, oil, etc., there being no transfer or delivery of the stock or commodities nominally dealt in." "

This was what bitcoinica was except for the brief times where they did bulk updates against mtgox to bring their shop in balance.
Again, MOST of the time people played against other people there.
As long as people understand this i don't think there is anything wrong with that...

Actually, they frequently pushed transactions through to mtgox and even published what percent was hedged each day.  The only time it didn't go through was when two customers took opposite sides of the same bet.

[mobodick]

Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.

No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.

So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?

Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..

RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!

Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.

For bitcoinica to NOT be a bucketshop they would need to push through their users transactions to mtgox.
They were not, they kept the transactions local most of the time and once in a while they did a bulk transaction with mtgox.
So most of the time people on bitcoinica were only playing against oter people on bitcoinica.
That is a bucketshop.

I think even Zhou refered to it as his little bucketshop.
The sad thing is that a shop like bitcoinica cannot actually function without having some bucketshop characteristics. The infrastructure is just not there to do it all in real time so what Zhou actually created was pretty impressive.
It was just impossible to NOT make it a bucketshop and still offer leverage afaik.

from wikipedia:
"As defined by the U.S. Supreme Court a Bucket shop is "[a]n establishment, nominally for the transaction of a stock exchange business, or business of similar character, but really for the registration of bets, or wagers, usually for small amounts, on the rise or fall of the prices of stocks, grain, oil, etc., there being no transfer or delivery of the stock or commodities nominally dealt in." "

This was what bitcoinica was except for the brief times where they did bulk updates against mtgox to bring their shop in balance.
Again, MOST of the time people played against other people there.
As long as people understand this i don't think there is anything wrong with that...

Actually, they frequently pushed transactions through to mtgox and even published what percent was hedged each day.  The only time it didn't go through was when two customers took opposite sides of the same bet.

That frequency was no where near the trading frequency.
Inbetween the transfers it was effectively a bucketshop and everything was canceled against everything else.
So by definition of US law (see above) they were a bucket shop most of the time.

[notme]

Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.

No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.

So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?

Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..

RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!

Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.

For bitcoinica to NOT be a bucketshop they would need to push through their users transactions to mtgox.
They were not, they kept the transactions local most of the time and once in a while they did a bulk transaction with mtgox.
So most of the time people on bitcoinica were only playing against oter people on bitcoinica.
That is a bucketshop.

I think even Zhou refered to it as his little bucketshop.
The sad thing is that a shop like bitcoinica cannot actually function without having some bucketshop characteristics. The infrastructure is just not there to do it all in real time so what Zhou actually created was pretty impressive.
It was just impossible to NOT make it a bucketshop and still offer leverage afaik.

from wikipedia:
"As defined by the U.S. Supreme Court a Bucket shop is "[a]n establishment, nominally for the transaction of a stock exchange business, or business of similar character, but really for the registration of bets, or wagers, usually for small amounts, on the rise or fall of the prices of stocks, grain, oil, etc., there being no transfer or delivery of the stock or commodities nominally dealt in." "

This was what bitcoinica was except for the brief times where they did bulk updates against mtgox to bring their shop in balance.
Again, MOST of the time people played against other people there.
As long as people understand this i don't think there is anything wrong with that...

Actually, they frequently pushed transactions through to mtgox and even published what percent was hedged each day.  The only time it didn't go through was when two customers took opposite sides of the same bet.

That frequency was no where near the trading frequency.
Inbetween the transfers it was effectively a bucketshop and everything was canceled against everything else.
So by definition of US law (see above) they were a bucket shop most of the time.

Cool story bro.  How much of the source code have you read?  If the answer is 0, how can you be so sure you know how it operated?

[genuise]

...
That frequency was no where near the trading frequency.
Inbetween the transfers it was effectively a bucketshop and everything was canceled against everything else.
So by definition of US law (see above) they were a bucket shop most of the time.

Hey, mobodick, excelent and exhaustive explanation as for me, thank you.

[Energizer]

It seems that the lending services OPs have started to do their thing in the range of 7.8$ <-> 9.2$. Do you really think that there are any kind of demand on borrowing BTC for such lending services? I think the lending services are collecting BTC just for day trading with huge amounts. It seems that their target now is 1$ profit per round. This is just speculation.