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Author Topic: Bitcoin price will reach $25 by the end of the year  (Read 5542 times)
Energizer
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July 16, 2012, 07:55:46 PM
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I am creating this thread to discuss and share with you my thoughts and expectations about BTC price by the end of 2012. I am expecting BTC price to reach $25 by the end of 2012 and here is why:

When BFL started to accept pre-orders for FPGA Singles end of 2011, Bitcoin price kept rising until it reached "$7.25". Such rising period took around 3 months, and when BFL started delivering the Singles, BTC price started to move down slowly toward $4. Actually it move down from $7.2 to $4 in 5 stages. Now BFL is accepting pre-orders for ASIC. There is no doubt that the price of BTC is gonna double "once again", but this time from $5 to $10 "already started and at the time of this writing BTC is @ $8". The amount of money needed to invest in ASIC devices is almost double the amount needed to invest in FPGA. To be more specific, the amount of money needed to upgrade FPGA/GPU farms to ASIC is almost double the amount of money invested in such FPGA/GPU farm from day one "to be able to get the same reward when ASIC hits the network". So if the amount of money that will be invested in ASIC "by the last quarter of 2012" will be double the amount of money invested in FPGAs "last quarter of 2011", you should expect BTC price rising more than double "$12 to $15". At that time the block reward is gonna be reduced to 25 BTC instead of 50 BTC, so this time when BFL delivers ASIC BTC price is not gonna move back as it did when BFL delivered the FPGA Singles, but it is gonna start a new rising wave. For that am expecting BTC price to reach at least 20$ by the end of 2012 beginning of 2013. I already started saving as much BTC as I can, and you can consider this thread as an invitation for you to join the party by increasing your BTC savings.
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July 16, 2012, 08:09:47 PM
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So if the amount of money that will be invested in ASIC "by the last quarter of 2012" will be double the amount of money invested in FPGAs "last quarter of 2011", you should expect BTC price rising more than double "$12 to $15"

Why would these two have anything to do with each other?

Energizer
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July 16, 2012, 08:12:11 PM
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So if the amount of money that will be invested in ASIC "by the last quarter of 2012" will be double the amount of money invested in FPGAs "last quarter of 2011", you should expect BTC price rising more than double "$12 to $15"

Why would these two have anything to do with each other?

would you please clarify your question? which two?
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July 16, 2012, 08:18:51 PM
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So if the amount of money that will be invested in ASIC "by the last quarter of 2012" will be double the amount of money invested in FPGAs "last quarter of 2011", you should expect BTC price rising more than double "$12 to $15"

Why would these two have anything to do with each other?

would you please clarify your question? which two?

I'm guessing money spent on FPGA vs money spent on ASIC.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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Energizer
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July 16, 2012, 08:21:27 PM
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So if the amount of money that will be invested in ASIC "by the last quarter of 2012" will be double the amount of money invested in FPGAs "last quarter of 2011", you should expect BTC price rising more than double "$12 to $15"

Why would these two have anything to do with each other?

would you please clarify your question? which two?

I'm guessing money spent on FPGA vs money spent on ASIC.

That was one of my guesses, thats why I want him to clarify.
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July 16, 2012, 08:21:33 PM
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Lemme guess? You just bought a bunch OP...  Roll Eyes

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July 16, 2012, 08:22:56 PM
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So if the amount of money that will be invested in ASIC "by the last quarter of 2012" will be double the amount of money invested in FPGAs "last quarter of 2011", you should expect BTC price rising more than double "$12 to $15"

Why would these two have anything to do with each other?

would you please clarify your question? which two?

I'm guessing money spent on FPGA vs money spent on ASIC.

That was one of my guesses, thats why I want him to clarify.

I'd like to know the answer with that pair.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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July 16, 2012, 08:28:39 PM
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When BFL started to accept pre-orders for FPGA Singles end of 2011, Bitcoin price kept rising until it reached "$7.25". Such rising period took around 3 months, and when BFL started delivering the Singles, BTC price started to move down slowly toward $4.

Correlation != Causation (and in this case they aren't even correlated).
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July 16, 2012, 08:48:42 PM
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You really think its not related? So can you explain to me why BTC price moved from 6 to 8 during the last month? Could you please get back to BTC charts and analyze how BTC price moved starting from 23rd of JUNE "the date BFL started to accept orders for ASIC".

The point is BTC price is controlled by big players, who create large ask/bid walls! Such walls can not stand the rush on buying BTC when a new BTC realed product gets into the market. They have to remove or reduce their walls until BTC price stabilize. So yes, in a way you are right, there are other factors here that play big rule in the equation. The relation may not be direct, but indeed there are multiple indirect relations.
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July 16, 2012, 08:53:00 PM
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It is somewhat related to those orders. That is because people were buying BTC in order to pay for those BFL preorders and BTCpay is refusing to sell em back into the market, effectively driving the price up.

Some people realized this might be a good time to start pumping and now you have it.

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July 16, 2012, 08:54:20 PM
 #11

I am creating this thread to discuss and share with you my thoughts and expectations about BTC price by the end of 2012. I am expecting BTC price to reach $25 by the end of 2012 and here is why:

When BFL started to accept pre-orders for FPGA Singles end of 2011, Bitcoin price kept rising until it reached "$7.25". Such rising period took around 3 months, and when BFL started delivering the Singles, BTC price started to move down slowly toward $4. Actually it move down from $7.2 to $4 in 5 stages. Now BFL is accepting pre-orders for ASIC. There is no doubt that the price of BTC is gonna double "once again", but this time from $5 to $10 "already started and at the time of this writing BTC is @ $8". The amount of money needed to invest in ASIC devices is almost double the amount needed to invest in FPGA. To be more specific, the amount of money needed to upgrade FPGA/GPU farms to ASIC is almost double the amount of money invested in such FPGA/GPU farm from day one "to be able to get the same reward when ASIC hits the network". So if the amount of money that will be invested in ASIC "by the last quarter of 2012" will be double the amount of money invested in FPGAs "last quarter of 2011", you should expect BTC price rising more than double "$12 to $15". At that time the block reward is gonna be reduced to 25 BTC instead of 50 BTC, so this time when BFL delivers ASIC BTC price is not gonna move back as it did when BFL delivered the FPGA Singles, but it is gonna start a new rising wave. For that am expecting BTC price to reach at least 20$ by the end of 2012 beginning of 2013. I already started saving as much BTC as I can, and you can consider this thread as an invitation for you to join the party by saving as much BTC as you can.

No.
Energizer
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July 16, 2012, 08:57:57 PM
 #12

Exactly! and thats why it would be a good time to join BTCpay behavior! Thats why I've started saving and created this thread to invite you to do the same! My savings and yours wouldn't affect the market but if we all start saving now and join forces, we can really add a new factor to the equation Wink
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July 16, 2012, 09:01:54 PM
 #13

Exactly! and thats why its better to join BTCpay! Thats why I've started saving and created this thread to invite you to do the same!

So they can dump em' after I bought into the price? NO I'm not those kind of sucker. But on the bright side: My LTC investment seems to get back into the positive, from the USD it long has and from the frenzy it seems from the BTC side too. If I had spare money I know what I would do.
LTC seems to be the leverage option for this current move Wink


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July 16, 2012, 09:05:06 PM
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ASIC development, just like everything else concerning mining hashpower, has little to do with the value of Bitcoins. While what ElectricMucus said about converting to buy hardware may be true, a speculator having that same thought might just correct the entire movement.

Value stems from the usage possibilities, not from the difficulty or effort to make something. If you'd use an energy-matter converter to synthesize a bit of stone with all the funds of humanity, and then lose it in the Sahara before someone saw it, it's worth the same as any other stone there. The buyer cares about result, not effort.

There is a minor effect because difficulty protects against >50% attacks, but that might see some changes regardless of the type of hardware used. Fee-based mining isn't figured out very well yet, and minting will lose half its output in December.



@Topic, $25:

We mostly agreed it's not a bubble yet -- that doesn't mean it's the best idea to go into maximum bullmode right away. Tongue

We've seen last October and November what kind of liquidity waits in Bitcoin if things go extreme. It's been eight months since we were at 2 USD, that's a factor four. Give the infrastructure some time to catch up, or else we're just risking another phase of instability.
Energizer
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July 16, 2012, 09:05:40 PM
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Exactly! and thats why its better to join BTCpay! Thats why I've started saving and created this thread to invite you to do the same!

So they can dump em' after I bought into the price? NO I'm not those kind of sucker. But on the bright side: My LTC investment seems to get back into the positive, from the USD it long has and from the frenzy it seems from the BTC side too Wink



I would agree with you if we were 1 year away from the 25 BTC block reward. I don't think they will dump em' now! it would be too stupid to dump em' before the 25 BTC block reward Wink think it over!
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July 16, 2012, 09:13:40 PM
 #16

Exactly! and thats why its better to join BTCpay! Thats why I've started saving and created this thread to invite you to do the same!

So they can dump em' after I bought into the price? NO I'm not those kind of sucker. But on the bright side: My LTC investment seems to get back into the positive, from the USD it long has and from the frenzy it seems from the BTC side too Wink



I would agree with you if we were 1 year away from the 25 BTC block reward. I don't think they will dump em' now! it would be too stupid to dump em' before the 25 BTC block reward Wink think about it again!

no one dumps these days

if you have a very large amount of bitcoin you want cash out, you sell it off slowly ( Especially when price is rising like it has... )

so i would say that supply selling pressure will remain pretty much constant through-out this WHOLE thing...  only months after the reward drop will the limited supply really start to effect selling pressure

demand has/is/will grow, its clear the price will contunie make you highs for years to come (so long as the protocol remains intact... and thats not a hard bet to make  Wink)

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July 17, 2012, 01:58:08 AM
 #17

I didn't think for a second while creating this thread that BTC price will reach 9$ in the same day! It seems that by now it can reach 12$ at ease!
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July 17, 2012, 09:10:09 AM
 #18

How about parity with silver? Boy, would that be a big one! *bling* Grin *bling*


Already did that in June 2011. Silver was about $33 an ounce and bitcoins hit about $32.

Parity with gold would be golden!

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July 17, 2012, 01:48:22 PM
 #19

You really think its not related? So can you explain to me why BTC price moved from 6 to 8 during the last month?
...
The point is BTC price is controlled by big players,...

I guess noone noticed how bitcoinica was keeping the price stable around 5 and that the price started moving up just after the last debacle at the end of may.

You are utterly wrong in when the rise started, btw.
It started to rise around june 1st, not 23rd.
The rise after 23rd is a nice continuation of the move that started at the beginning of june.

So i think your theory is based on flawed data and is therefore itself completely flawed.

If you want to understand why the price moves up you will need to investigate bitcoinicas grip on the price ant the lack thereof at the moment.
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July 17, 2012, 02:17:30 PM
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You really think its not related? So can you explain to me why BTC price moved from 6 to 8 during the last month?
...
The point is BTC price is controlled by big players,...

I guess noone noticed how bitcoinica was keeping the price stable around 5 and that the price started moving up just after the last debacle at the end of may.

You are utterly wrong in when the rise started, btw.
It started to rise around june 1st, not 23rd.
The rise after 23rd is a nice continuation of the move that started at the beginning of june.

So i think your theory is based on flawed data and is therefore itself completely flawed.

If you want to understand why the price moves up you will need to investigate bitcoinicas grip on the price ant the lack thereof at the moment.

Thank you for pointing this out. I didn't count that! but still 23rd of JUNE was a beginning of a new wave that is still active.
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