I think you forgot the most important one. People get bored, sell the Btc, and go do other things.
Price of btc falls and this miniscule group of people keep proclaiming btc will go big this year.
You think people get bored on a currency that can easily reach $5000 in the coming years 10-20 years if only 0.1% of the blackmarket uses Bitcoin....Now thats excluding porn, gambling, gold, money transfer market, entertainment industry, games, micropayments, food, restaurants, export/import etc.
Though when I think about it I know one person that got bored last year.
But I´m quite sure he will be back soon or is.
Though I think many of those who get bored will just leave a few coins just in case.
Think about this, when you sell at $5 you sell to someone who will sell at $6 or $10 or $50 or some will keep it as a lottery ticket and only sell at $100 $500 etc. After a while there is noone left who will sell at $5.
Now price reach $6. And some people think great I will sell now. They sell to people who will want to sell at $7 or $10 or $25 or $64 or $500.
And if the price goes down, some people will just think. Hey I will wait until the price moves up. Other will see this as a great buying opportunity.
Sure some will panic, but they will go away after a while and than maybe regret their panic and become hardened as the price goes back up and new people/investors comes in.
Ofcourse some need to sell and some just use Bitcoin to transfer money. But most of what is sold today is sold to someone who keeps until the price goes up. This is a upward spiral as less and less coins are produced.
And as the price rise, it will get more and more people and companies interested, creating a bigger and bigger upward spiral.
If there were 100,000 who each had 210 coins all coins would be bought...That how few coins there will be. A coin is like quite many goldbars.
Ofcourse 100,00 does not create a market, unless its the world richest 100,000...
My advice to those getting bored.
If you get bored, take a profit but keep atleast some, you dont want to find that you have to buy back in at 50% higher.
Also remember the tulip bubble? One tulip could buy a house. That was in one not that big country. Now Bitcoin is in the whole world...
But unlike tulips, and FIAT they can not be copied.