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Author Topic: Where else can the price go (in the long term) but up?  (Read 2534 times)
smoothie
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July 17, 2012, 07:14:44 AM
 #1

With the following list I can't see how prices can remain below $7/btc by December 31st of 2012:

1. Block reward having (i know i know repeating it a million times)

2. More efficient mining equipment to hit the market inevitable as technology gets better and miners seek to have the "edge" over others.

3. Price rising without any news media hype.

4. With elections in a few months and our financial system in turmoil I can see stocks tanking, USD exchange markets tanking, gold and silver price taking a hit via manipulation (possibly).

5. (i'm sure that I've forgotten something....but oh well you get the picture)


Note: Recent volatility we saw today between $7.40 and $9.50 is nothing just looking at previous price movements.

 Wink

"keep stacking bitcoins"

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July 17, 2012, 07:26:25 AM
 #2

I'll tell you a secret: The price will always go left → right.
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July 17, 2012, 07:29:53 AM
 #3


Totally agree: btccharts.com

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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July 18, 2012, 01:13:19 AM
 #4

Agree 100%. I started buying BTC steadily since April because I've been predicting an intensifying loss of confidence in the world's financial systems and currencies for some time now. It's become laughable - there is a new scam revealed pretty much every week, yet somehow everything goes on business as usual. I'm thinking it's going to really start unravelling by late September - the traditional month for banking crises.

I think there will be a flood into Bitcoin especially seeing as how the metals are so manipulated right now. It's also becoming more and more convenient for people worldwide to convert to Bitcoin by depositing cash locally.
smoothie
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July 18, 2012, 01:16:23 AM
 #5

Agree 100%. I started buying BTC steadily since April because I've been predicting an intensifying loss of confidence in the world's financial systems and currencies for some time now. It's become laughable - there is a new scam revealed pretty much every week, yet somehow everything goes on business as usual. I'm thinking it's going to really start unravelling by late September - the traditional month for banking crises.

I think there will be a flood into Bitcoin especially seeing as how the metals are so manipulated right now. It's also becoming more and more convenient for people worldwide to convert to Bitcoin by depositing cash locally.

+1

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LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
foggyb
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July 18, 2012, 01:22:46 AM
 #6


The future is unpredictable.
By definition.


I could get hit by a car tomorrow. These are the dangers we all face.

Its no reason to avoid bitcoin.
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July 18, 2012, 01:27:25 AM
 #7

I think that last years $31 is very unlikely to be bitcoins all time high. I would expect that it will be surpassed within the next few years.

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July 18, 2012, 01:50:13 AM
 #8

Where else can the price go (in the long term) but up?

Where can USD go but down?

Ftfy

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July 18, 2012, 01:58:08 AM
 #9

I think that last years $31 is very unlikely to be bitcoins all time high.

This much is a mathematical certainty because of the inflation on fiat. The question is will it get back to $31 in 2011 value (the silver parity proposal is interesting in that regard)? I do think so and agree it will be within the next 4 years.
yogi
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July 18, 2012, 02:03:52 AM
 #10

I think that last years $31 is very unlikely to be bitcoins all time high.

This much is a mathematical certainty because of the inflation on fiat. The question is will it get back to $31 in 2011 value (the silver parity proposal is interesting in that regard)? I do think so and agree it will be within the next 4 years.

Certainty?

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July 18, 2012, 02:14:17 AM
 #11

I think that last years $31 is very unlikely to be bitcoins all time high.

This much is a mathematical certainty because of the inflation on fiat. The question is will it get back to $31 in 2011 value (the silver parity proposal is interesting in that regard)? I do think so and agree it will be within the next 4 years.

Certainty?


Certainty can be defined as either: perfect knowledge that has total security from error, or; the mental state of being without doubt.

I have to agree... if the dollar keeps losing value bitcoin will go up.

you dont think so?

actually one could argue that future fiat inflation is already calculated into today's price

IMO, no its not.

1 btc = 8$ of value
1btc != 8$ of value 4 years from now

the market wont look that far ahead.

smoothie
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July 18, 2012, 02:34:32 AM
 #12

I think that last years $31 is very unlikely to be bitcoins all time high.

This much is a mathematical certainty because of the inflation on fiat. The question is will it get back to $31 in 2011 value (the silver parity proposal is interesting in that regard)? I do think so and agree it will be within the next 4 years.

Certainty?


Certainty can be defined as either: perfect knowledge that has total security from error, or; the mental state of being without doubt.

I have to agree... if the dollar keeps losing value bitcoin will go up.

you dont think so?

actually one could argue that future fiat inflation is already calculated into today's price

IMO, no its not.

1 btc = 8$ of value
1btc != 8$ of value 4 years 3.5 months from now

the market wont look that far ahead.

Yes on halloween 2012 Bitcoins will be worth more than $8  Grin

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                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
fcmatt
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July 18, 2012, 02:35:13 AM
 #13


Many things can go wrong for bitcoin:

    - some large govt makes makes it illegal (eg US, China, EU)
    - exploit in protocol (unlikely)
    - exploit in deployed code (likely)
    - a better (more features) coin appears that makes people switch
    - another GOX security breach
    - SR gets taken down by the fed
    - 51% attack
    - coordinated cyberwarfare by funded opponent (governments).
    - people finally discover how hard it is to hold on to their coins in face of determined hackers
      (i.e. not the script kiddie level hacks we've seen so far), but stuff at the level of stuxnet
 
etc ...

The future is unpredictable.
By definition.


I think you forgot the most important one. People get bored, sell the btc, and go do other things.
Price of btc falls and this miniscule group of people keep proclaiming btc will go big this year.
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July 18, 2012, 02:44:26 AM
 #14


Many things can go wrong for bitcoin:

    - some large govt makes makes it illegal (eg US, China, EU)
    - exploit in protocol (unlikely)
    - exploit in deployed code (likely)
    - a better (more features) coin appears that makes people switch
    - another GOX security breach
    - SR gets taken down by the fed
    - 51% attack
    - coordinated cyberwarfare by funded opponent (governments).
    - people finally discover how hard it is to hold on to their coins in face of determined hackers
      (i.e. not the script kiddie level hacks we've seen so far), but stuff at the level of stuxnet
 
etc ...

The future is unpredictable.
By definition.


I think you forgot the most important one. People get bored, sell the btc, and go do other things.
Price of btc falls and this miniscule group of people keep proclaiming btc will go big this year.

LOL my father said at 6 point crazy:  "i will buy again, when it comes back down"  i told him "ya i really dont see that happening" he says "Ya ya people will get board and sell soon."

Right....


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July 18, 2012, 03:03:59 AM
 #15


    - people finally discover how hard it is to hold on to their coins in face of determined hackers
      (i.e. not the script kiddie level hacks we've seen so far), but stuff at the level of stuxnet


this is the only real threat

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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July 18, 2012, 03:07:21 AM
 #16


    - people finally discover how hard it is to hold on to their coins in face of determined hackers
      (i.e. not the script kiddie level hacks we've seen so far), but stuff at the level of stuxnet


this is the only real threat

how hard is it to print out this page https://www.bitaddress.org/ and send the coins their to the paper wallet?

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July 18, 2012, 03:24:03 AM
 #17

My estimation of probability over a ten year period;

65%    - some large govt makes makes it illegal (eg US, China, EU)
5%      - exploit in protocol (unlikely)
15%    - exploit in deployed code (likely)
75%    - a better (more features) coin appears that makes people switch
50%    - another GOX security breach
80%    - SR gets taken down by the fed
6%      - 51% attack
5%      - coordinated cyberwarfare by funded opponent (governments).
8%    - people finally discover how hard it is to hold on to their coins in face of determined hackers

This is not based on any data and is only my opinion.

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July 18, 2012, 03:29:42 AM
 #18

80%    - SR gets taken down by the fed

The federal reserve?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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yogi
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July 18, 2012, 03:39:55 AM
 #19

80%    - SR gets taken down by the fed

The federal reserve?

Coordinated international operation.

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July 18, 2012, 10:38:22 AM
 #20


    - people finally discover how hard it is to hold on to their coins in face of determined hackers
      (i.e. not the script kiddie level hacks we've seen so far), but stuff at the level of stuxnet


this is the only real threat

how hard is it to print out this page https://www.bitaddress.org/ and send the coins their to the paper wallet?

how hard is it to get a screen-capture of this page during printing it, if there's a rootkit already on your machine?

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