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Author Topic: #bitcoin IRC log: A pirate leads a flock of sheep over a cliff.  (Read 9640 times)
miscreanity
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July 18, 2012, 04:32:50 AM
 #61

I think I would have rather settled with the new money coming into bitcoin.  There was no vapour this time just growth and the market is more mature.  I think lots of other larger actors would have started dumping post $10.  This was just Pirate trying to protect his HYIP.  Yes I would prefer steady growth but not at the cost of market manipulation.

Pirate is one person acting on behalf of, and in conjunction with numerous others. For your claim of manipulation, everyone invested with Pirate is complicit. If other large players would've dumped above $10, would you claim they're manipulative as well? And if others were to drive the price down, it would help Pirate, not harm FPS&T.

Yup. Greed, pure and simple.

Greed would've been letting a bubble form, then slamming the price down another 90% like the drop from the 2011 peak.
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July 18, 2012, 04:40:19 AM
 #62

Yup. Greed, pure and simple.
Greed would've been letting a bubble form, then slamming the price down another 90% like the drop from the 2011 peak.

I was speaking of the people who trust Pirate, not Pirate's motivations. As to his motivations, I think he had the ability to troll a still very volatile market, and used it for the lulz.

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July 18, 2012, 03:27:10 PM
 #63



Pirate is one person acting on behalf of, and in conjunction with numerous others. For your claim of manipulation, everyone invested with Pirate is complicit. If other large players would've dumped above $10, would you claim they're manipulative as well? And if others were to drive the price down, it would help Pirate, not harm FPS&T.


If you are customer of a bank that committed a fraud then your not complicit to that fraud.  People can sell large amounts of coins whenever they want but not do so in a way of trying to manipulate the market by telling other regular traders you are going to lower the price and encouraging them to sell also.

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July 18, 2012, 03:32:38 PM
 #64

If what Pirate said in that log that he can bring the price down to 1$ is true, then that means he has about 300,000 BTC at his disposal.

At 6% interest this would mean he needs to buy 18,000 BTC per week, or about 2500 BTC per day.

That's a signficant portion of the newly created coins per day.

If it carries on like this that alone will drive the price up.

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July 18, 2012, 03:41:58 PM
 #65

If what Pirate said in that log that he can bring the price down to 1$ is true, then that means he has about 300,000 BTC at his disposal.

At 6% interest this would mean he needs to buy 18,000 BTC per week, or about 2500 BTC per day.

That's a signficant portion of the newly created coins per day.

If it carries on like this that alone will drive the price up.
Not if you buy it not on an exchange.
I think most trades does actually not happen on any exchange, and thus have no influence on the price.

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July 18, 2012, 03:44:20 PM
 #66

If what Pirate said in that log that he can bring the price down to 1$ is true, then that means he has about 300,000 BTC at his disposal.

At 6% interest this would mean he needs to buy 18,000 BTC per week, or about 2500 BTC per day.

That's a signficant portion of the newly created coins per day.

If it carries on like this that alone will drive the price up.
Not if you buy it not on an exchange.
I think most trades does actually not happen on any exchange, and thus have no influence on the price.

Where can you buy 18k BTC per week outside of the major exchanges?

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July 18, 2012, 03:47:34 PM
 #67

If what Pirate said in that log that he can bring the price down to 1$ is true, then that means he has about 300,000 BTC at his disposal.

At 6% interest this would mean he needs to buy 18,000 BTC per week, or about 2500 BTC per day.

That's a signficant portion of the newly created coins per day.

If it carries on like this that alone will drive the price up.
Not if you buy it not on an exchange.
I think most trades does actually not happen on any exchange, and thus have no influence on the price.

Where can you buy 18k BTC per week outside of the major exchanges?
OTC, maybe long time contracts with miners, early adopters, Satoshi Cheesy
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July 18, 2012, 03:47:42 PM
 #68

If what Pirate said in that log that he can bring the price down to 1$ is true, then that means he has about 300,000 BTC at his disposal.

At 6% interest this would mean he needs to buy 18,000 BTC per week, or about 2500 BTC per day.

That's a signficant portion of the newly created coins per day.

If it carries on like this that alone will drive the price up.
Not if you buy it not on an exchange.
I think most trades does actually not happen on any exchange, and thus have no influence on the price.

Where can you buy 18k BTC per week outside of the major exchanges?

from Pirate..

Are there others? I sell on average a few hundred per week off exchange, so would assume others do as well. 18k+ though? *shrugs*

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July 18, 2012, 03:59:52 PM
 #69

I just realized that if Pirate's BTC pool continues to grow by a modest 4% per week he'll have gathered all the available BTC (about 11 million) within about two years from now.

Cool.

 Grin

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miscreanity
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July 18, 2012, 07:13:43 PM
 #70

I was speaking of the people who trust Pirate, not Pirate's motivations. As to his motivations, I think he had the ability to troll a still very volatile market, and used it for the lulz.

Fair enough. The lulz were probably a secondary benefit. Note how he said he wanted to make a point - broadcasting his moves with a small lead time would've allowed some major profit to be taken, and publicly warning to stop buying should've also resulted in at least a slowing of bids. Instead, strong buying continued.

The point Pirate made was that the Bitcoin market is much larger than the vocal minority suspects, and if that majority were to continue unabated, another confidence-destroying bubble would've formed. To conclude: without Pirate and other highly capitalized participants acting as a brake on speculative appreciation, the Bitcoin system would quickly become wildly unstable to a point where it is unusable for any but gamblers; not conducive to longevity.

Keep in mind that I am not advocating blind, wholesale trust in Pirate - it is just as important to regularly question the course he's charted. Eternal vigilance...

If you are customer of a bank that committed a fraud then your not complicit to that fraud.  People can sell large amounts of coins whenever they want but not do so in a way of trying to manipulate the market by telling other regular traders you are going to lower the price and encouraging them to sell also.

Very true. At the same time, I have a lot of difficulty believing any court would absolve such a small cadre of participants from responsibility. This is not your traditional financial institution with thousands of clients. How many are involved? Maybe a couple of hundred at most? With that small of a group which is part of such a tightly-knit community, it would be nearly impossible to prove that any are at more than arm's length from the operation.

I just realized that if Pirate's BTC pool continues to grow by a modest 4% per week he'll have gathered all the available BTC (about 11 million) within about two years from now.

Yyyyyup! It can last quite a while, but interest rates will decline over the duration. The more the Bitcoin economy grows, the harder it will be to keep acquiring a high percentage of the supply. Enjoy it while it's here!

For those whom are still unbelievers: there are two active, opposing flows at all times. Managing a large fund is not manipulation, but navigation. Yes, the magnitude of the fund may cause disruption from time to time, but if run responsibly, it can have a highly positive effect.

In this video, the building could be seen as representing the entire Bitcoin economy, and the counter-balancing damper as FPS&T. And remember: BS&T is a group effort composed of multiple individuals' assets, not just Pirate's - he just directs/steers it.
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July 19, 2012, 07:53:15 AM
 #71

I wanted to add the Pirate's worrying about the Bitcoin price in USD and trying to manipulate it is an indicator that he is not running a ponzi.

If he were running a ponzi the Bitcoin price in any fiat currency would be irrelevant to his operation. It would be just bitcoins in (deposits) and bitcoins out (withdrawals and interest). There would be no need to change into fiat.

If anything Pirate should welcome a high price. He could cash out more then of his percentage he would be taking out of the scheme. So by driving the price down he would actually be diminishing his profits.

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July 19, 2012, 07:59:00 AM
 #72

I wanted to add the Pirate's worrying about the Bitcoin price in USD and trying to manipulate it is an indicator that he is not running a ponzi.

If he were running a ponzi the Bitcoin price in any fiat currency would be irrelevant to his operation. It would be just bitcoins in (deposits) and bitcoins out (withdrawals and interest). There would be no need to change into fiat.

If anything Pirate should welcome a high price. He could cash out more then of his percentage he would be taking out of the scheme. So by driving the price down he would actually be diminishing his profits.

That all depends. The price could always go down and he scoops up cheap coins and sells them when price rises....

Not all about going up in terms of profit. Sometimes the price needs to go down for one to enter a market and make a profit.

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July 19, 2012, 08:01:54 AM
 #73

If what Pirate said in that log that he can bring the price down to 1$ is true, then that means he has about 300,000 BTC at his disposal.

At 6% interest this would mean he needs to buy 18,000 BTC per week, or about 2500 BTC per day.

That's a signficant portion of the newly created coins per day.

If it carries on like this that alone will drive the price up.
Not if you buy it not on an exchange.
I think most trades does actually not happen on any exchange, and thus have no influence on the price.

Where can you buy 18k BTC per week outside of the major exchanges?

It doesn't matter, you still drive up the price because you keep those coins from going to market. Even if you find some coins that would never sell at market but will sell to you the person they'd be selling to otherwise now has to go to market. Even if that person refuses to go to market they now either gobble up some coins that would have gone to market or they push some other person who cares less into the market. It isn't clear, but it's all connected. Demand is demand.

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July 19, 2012, 08:05:35 AM
 #74

If what Pirate said in that log that he can bring the price down to 1$ is true, then that means he has about 300,000 BTC at his disposal.

At 6% interest this would mean he needs to buy 18,000 BTC per week, or about 2500 BTC per day.

That's a signficant portion of the newly created coins per day.

If it carries on like this that alone will drive the price up.
Not if you buy it not on an exchange.
I think most trades does actually not happen on any exchange, and thus have no influence on the price.

Where can you buy 18k BTC per week outside of the major exchanges?

It doesn't matter, you still drive up the price because you keep those coins from going to market. Even if you find some coins that would never sell at market but will sell to you the person they'd be selling to otherwise now has to go to market. Even if that person refuses to go to market they now either gobble up some coins that would have gone to market or they push some other person who cares less into the market. It isn't clear, but it's all connected. Demand is demand.

Miners dont have to go anywhere but to the bitcoin client. Not all OTC bitcoins come from exchanges.


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July 19, 2012, 08:56:53 PM
 #75

I wanted to add the Pirate's worrying about the Bitcoin price in USD and trying to manipulate it is an indicator that he is not running a ponzi.

If he were running a ponzi the Bitcoin price in any fiat currency would be irrelevant to his operation. It would be just bitcoins in (deposits) and bitcoins out (withdrawals and interest). There would be no need to change into fiat.

If anything Pirate should welcome a high price. He could cash out more then of his percentage he would be taking out of the scheme. So by driving the price down he would actually be diminishing his profits.

What if it was a PR stunt designed to make you to come to this conclusion?

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