Pirate Manipulation behind the recent price spike?

[ripper234]

Dunno if there's another thread discussing this, I just saw this on Reddit (original log on pastebin).

<pirateat40> this was kind of like a training simulation.
<pirateat40> it will all make sense soon enough.
<pirateat40> crashed is != corrected.
<pirateat40> we don't want another bubble and my charts/triggers were screaming at me.
<proudhon> pirateat40, could you stop another "rally" if one were to ignite right now and buy up above $10?
<pirateat40> proudhon, i could take [you] to 1.80 if i needed to.
<pirateat40> There is no point in the last 7 months that I've not been in control of the market.
<pirateat40> Keep buying people...
<pirateat40> I'm just going to say this [one] time.... If you panic buy, you're going to lose.
<pirateat40> Yes, Everyone BUY
<pirateat40> GO!, NOW
<pirateat40> The more you buy the more I make.
<pirateat40> this is the first time ive ever played the market. It was simply a statement, I don't plan on making it part of my process. It's simply a warning.
<pirateat40> 80% is the people not in our tiny community.
<pirateat40> Im trying to make a point here.
<pirateat40> well guys, i think i've scared off the sellers. I'm tired and going to call it night and let the bots play. IRCFrEAK, im pulling the my wall and dumping.... Get ready!

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[TraderTimm]

Considering the dollar amounts involved to take out all those offers.... I'd say 'no'. Unless anyone has some actual corroborating evidence. The 'whiskers' on the candlestick chart look like a pure whipsaw panic to me. I don't buy the 'manipulator' story either - because only a sorry-assed idiot would tip their hand by cleaning out the order book.

[hazek]

Ahahahahaha, yeah? Uuuuhm no. 

[hazek]

You can read the comedy that is his "admission" here: http://pastebin.com/PthgrzDS

[bpd]

I really doubt pirate was the one buying. I certainly believe that he's the one that did a massive sale and caused the dump though (with your coins). The end is approaching... I feel it.

Read these in the mindset of someone about to end a ponzi:

[2012-07-17 04:34:46] <pirateat40> ErebusBat, this was kind of like a training simulation.
[2012-07-17 04:35:05] <pirateat40> ErebusBat, it will all make sense soon enough.

[2012-07-17 06:04:13] <opticbit> can we expect more than 7% in our accounts next monday?
[2012-07-17 06:05:31] <pirateat40> opticbit, as long as I hold your coins.. you'll be paid.

Well... does he hold your coins anymore? Or did he just sell them all?

It makes no sense to pre-announce a big sale unless you just don't care that much about the price and value the notoriety and ego value you get more than getting the absolute best price.

[kiba]

Unless we have cold hard evidence(TM) from mtgox, pirate is just making shit up.

[rjk]

Unless we have cold hard evidence(TM) from mtgox, pirate is just making shit up.

Sounds like something he would do, too, just to fuck with everyone.

[elux]

Unless we have cold hard evidence(TM) from mtgox, pirate is just making shit up.

You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof.

He could be making shit up, but that's not what he said on #btcst today.

I suppose he could also be lying to his lenders, but that would be obviously stupid, in the long run.

[kiba]

Unless we have cold hard evidence(TM) from mtgox, pirate is just making shit up.

You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof.

He could be making shit up, but that's not what he said on #btcst today.

I suppose he could also be lying to his lenders, but that would be obviously stupid, in the long run.

How is that proof?  

Never mind, I'll just read the lesswrong posts. They're always interesting.

[kiba]

Meh. I still think he's just making shit up to just fuck with people.

* kiba don't speculate anyway. He just hold coins, thus he doesn't care about the bubble all that much.

[rebuilder]

Kiba:
http://i45.tinypic.com/2ngzj47.png

[kiba]

quote author=rebuilder link=topic=93757.msg1036738#msg1036738 date=1342552409]
Kiba:
http://i45.tinypic.com/2ngzj47.png

I'll just update my probability of 30% confidence to 75% confidence that he is a manipulator.

EDIT: Change my mind back to 30% after reading a thread in the speculation forum.

[hazek]

Kiba:
http://i45.tinypic.com/2ngzj47.png

And ? If it actually were him what did he just do? Ask yourself this? Put yourselves in his shoes!

So let's say I'm doing what pirate claims he's doing.. I received a bunch of BTC from investors, investors that I promised I'll pay back their BTC + interest in BTC, and now I move my BTC on gox and I sell them into the bid wall. Great I now lowered the price a bit, I hold USD but unfortunately the price just keeps going up.. and soon I'll have to buy back the BTC to pay my investors!

So you tell me, how am I going to do that for less than or equal to what I got for them when I sold them when the price just keeps going up? IT MAKES ZERO SENSE.




On the other hand if I'm running a ponzi, I sure as heck would take advantage of volatility in the market and claim it's me moving it to perpetuate some myth about how it just might be possible for me to pay those outrageously high interest to my investors in order to lure even more people into my scheme. This on the other hand makes perfect sense.

[rebuilder]

On the other hand if I'm running a ponzi, I sure as heck would take advantage of volatility in the market and claim it's me moving it to perpetuate some myth about how it just might be possible for me to pay those outrageously high interest to my investors in order to lure even more people into my scheme. This on the other hand makes perfect sense.

I didn't think this thread was about whether or not he's running a ponzi. I'm not saying it isn't. I'm just saying he did seem to have a big part in last night's swings.

[ridgemont4]

Kiba:
http://i45.tinypic.com/2ngzj47.png

Looks legit. I wonder how he did that?

and why did he say a rally is not good for Bitcoin? based on what? not sure if he gave reasoning in the log, it was too long; didn't read.

Whoever it was, obvious to me is that he holds a lot of Bitcoins and is intent on controlling the price. Was he responsible for taking down the forums too? If so, then it was an "influential" person in the anonymous Bitcoin world (if such exist). It's kind of sad if you ask me; Corruption is far worse for Bitcoin then a price spike. What a pussy for hiding in anonymity. This is exactly what I do not support Bitcoin.

[hazek]

I'm just saying he did seem to have a big part in last night's swings.

What "seems" is irrelevant without any proof, that's my point. In fact my point is that given the circumstances it would have been counter productive to actually do what he said he did.

[ydenys]

Ponzi it is, but he does not come out (judging by his posts) as an idiot who puts straight bid walls to get instantly sold into.

Market is far more mature than it was a year ago and there are plenty of big enough players just waiting for someone’s stupid move. Bots are just a noise. It is not only gox and few other guys (mostly interested in dumping at highest price) anymore.  There should be enough money on board to move 100k+ coins up and down instantly and current cautious trading reflects this fact.

On the other hand the pirate is trading against the market now and therefore his loss is imminent unless the market sentiment changes.

[ydenys]

Oh, yeah, it is almost $9 now again, mr piratepulator sells his (well, almost his) coins again using 30k walls – watch. 

[Herodes]

Perhaps we should add this general rule to the bitcoin community safety guidelines:

If some guy jumps ups and down, waving his hands frenetically and claims he's THE ONE, don't give him your bitcoins!!

[ridgemont4]

Perhaps we should add this general rule to the bitcoin community safety guidelines:

If some guy jumps ups and down, waving his hands frenetically and claims he's THE ONE, don't give him your bitcoins!!

Wow that was gay.