Can someone criticize my strategy?

[grantbdev]

Okay, I am not a gambling person at all, but http://betsofbitco.in/ caught my eye, specifically the bets on U.S. politics (a deep interest of mine.)

There are many bets that involve a straight yes or no on Romney's pick for VP: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=463 http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=264 http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=291 http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=481 http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=265 http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=371 http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=58 http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=266 http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=267 http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=491

So I was thinking...Would it be profitable to bet against all the options, considering that it is more likely that one person in particular will NOT be chosen? Am I being illogical here?

[DannyHamilton]

It will depend on payout odds.

Lets say you win 0.9 BTC for each 10 BTC that you bet against a possible running mate.
Furthermore lets say you bet exactly 10 BTC against each of 10 possible running mates.

Your total bet is 100 BTC (10 BTC each times 10 bets).

If one of those possible running mates is actually chosen, you lose the full 10 BTC on that bet and get nothing for it.

On each of the other 9 bets you get your 10 BTC back plus your 0.9 winnings for a total of 98.1 BTC (10.9 BTC each times 9 remaining bets).

So with my example payout odds, after betting 100 BTC you walk away with 98.1 BTC for a 1.9 BTC loss.

[Kettenmonster]

Beting on this site is not a zero–sum game. Thus you will loose money on any such strategy, even yours.

The trick is you need to be better in predicting than the ohers.
If your strategy doesn´t take this into account, than it will not work.