Elliot Waves, what are they!?

[sgbett]

The more a read about it the more I'm convinced its an art not a science. The important thing is I don't think its something that is entirely without merit. Whether you can use it predictively to trade? Maybe. Am I going to, certainly not

What I do know is there does seem to be a some logic behind the idea of impulsive moves.

I've seen various counts proposed for the bear market, and one of my favourites was the one where the ABC bearish correction coincides with large volume spike down a few days ago.

I also like the idea put forward about the throwover, my gut tells me this would be likely especially around 'big' (primary? sorry i don't know the terminology so well) waves. I think that the long bear market we went through was a pretty solid one.

So If we are starting a new 12345 main wave then we'll also be starting the smaller waves too, what we just saw, the impulsive bounce of what may prove to be the bottom, with our first exponential run up in a long long time (we've had ups but they have always looked like corrections over over sold positions in an otherwise downwardly moving market - this looked very different).

Then the sell off, which appears to be a normal correction event in a generally bullish trend.

It all looks very much like how elliot waves would unfold.

I guess what I'm saying is I think the next bull market is here, and the charts we are seeing look like they will make for some very convincing EW counts...

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

EW = bullshit.




Sorry for the EW lovers here but that's what I think.

EW tries to to predict what prices will do with precision in the following weeks or months, that's not really how TA should be used.
Sure if a chart looks like the classic Wall Street bubble chart it's probably a safe bet to expect lower prices the following months, but EW goes way too far in its predictions.

I mean if you are doing it for fun or as an interesting exercise all good, but you shouldn't really integrate it in your strategy.


TA is supposed to give you buy signals or sell signals that have a high chance of playing in your favour. Trading the moment and going with the flow and following the trend.

TA should be simple. The more complicated tools you use the higher the chances you'll fuck it up.
Ignore indicators or fancy shit, they don't predict much most of the time and you don't need them. If you use them too much, chances are you are overtrading.



Trading should be about: trend lines, wedges, pennants, double tops, double bottoms, breakouts, checking the depth chart, checking the trade history bar in real time.
And especially volume. Volume is absolutely crucial.
You should trade the big moves and ignore the noise, the choppy consolidations.

Then of course you have to develop the "feel" for a market knowing how it tends to usually behave.




That's pretty much it imo.



PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Exemple:

This last leg up was a ridiculous coinbase news pump&dump and an obvious bulltrap. It ended as soon as the site was online. The more sensible thing to do was dumping at around $300 and now waiting safely. If it starts going up to $300 again (probably won't) and you just can't live without bitcoin maybe rebuy if the previous top is being broken with decent volume.
Otherwise just watch the price slowly fall down the depths of hell with mini bulltraps here and there lol




Ignore EW, ignore indicators, ignore long term predictions, ignore permabulls and trade the chart you are lookin' at.




Again, if you are a BTCeanie BTCitcoin lover you can rebuy lower ay time and end up with more BTC.
That's not really me but if it's your thing... 



PS: There is no new bull market. There is no such thing.

[JimboToronto]

Ralph Nelson Elliott wrote a book about his theory that human behavior in markets follows certain identifiable waves.

This is similar to astrology, about which many books have been written.

Astrology has been around for millennia, EW theory for less than a century.

Some people take these things seriously, some don't.

I'll read the horoscope in a newspaper for entertainment but I won't base any important decisions on it.

[MatTheCat]

The more a read about it the more I'm convinced its an art not a science. The important thing is I don't think its something that is entirely without merit. Whether you can use it predictively to trade? Maybe. Am I going to, certainly not

What I do know is there does seem to be a some logic behind the idea of impulsive moves.

I've seen various counts proposed for the bear market, and one of my favourites was the one where the ABC bearish correction coincides with large volume spike down a few days ago.

I also like the idea put forward about the throwover, my gut tells me this would be likely especially around 'big' (primary? sorry i don't know the terminology so well) waves. I think that the long bear market we went through was a pretty solid one.

So If we are starting a new 12345 main wave then we'll also be starting the smaller waves too, what we just saw, the impulsive bounce of what may prove to be the bottom, with our first exponential run up in a long long time (we've had ups but they have always looked like corrections over over sold positions in an otherwise downwardly moving market - this looked very different).

Back in Jan 2014, DanV published his long term bearish outlook for Bitcoin based on his EW analysis and he stated that Bitcoin would retest the long-term trendline and likely put in a bottom somewhere around there. I was a 'believer' in the powers of DanV, but his analysis was largely dismissed as crank by just about everyone. Earlier this month, Bitcoin actually pierced right through DanV's long term baseline, which currently sits at around $220, with Bitcoin having hit $150 and now currently up at $260.

Having been on the emotional roller coaster of Bitcoin trading until I finally tapped out last summer, and also having been a strong believer in DanV's forecasts, but still having the talent of generally betting with it at the wrong times and also betting against it at the wrong times, I have witnessed first hand how EW theory has provided a pretty damn good template for the bear market that Bitcoin has followed, and the emotions that I have felt following it, and the real market actions that these emotions have resulted in me taking.

Since I have removed my chips from the table, I have started being pretty fucking accurate with my outlook on where Bitcoin is going. I stated to a friend (and also on this forum) that I would expect a bounce up to $300 when Bitcoin was at $180. I never put my money where my mouth was cos as soon as I start doing that it is a near certainty that I will come up with some impulsive hairbrained manoeuvre which will result in me pissing thousands down the toilet. Anyhow, now that Bitcoin has indeed bounced as high as $300, a 100% rise in it's bottom price, even though much of the upward price action was shorts being squeezed, I would suspect that after a bit more of a correction/consolidation it will go on to climb a bit higher, but I certainly wouldn't put my money on it doing so.

I am a shite trader, and I want an investment that I can put money into and sit back and relax feeling certain that the market is going to go in my favour and I don't feel that Bitcoin has become that market yet. When giving the matter serious consideration (and I was 50/50 on whether $150 was the final bottom or not), my intuition told me that Bitcoin was going to have a period in the sun. It has indeed had a period in the sun and perhaps it will have a further period in the sun. I don't know, but I do believe that there is more shit to come for Bitcoin and we will see Bitcoin back in double figures in due course.

The above sentiment also conforms to the bearish EW outlook based on the Primary support trendline being emphatically breached. Perhaps this is just the sentiment of a typical over cautious prole who is never likely to have the balls to catch the bottom of any asset price crash, and perhaps this is where the 'smart money' aka Wall Street money buys? However, if 'smart money' is really moving into Bitcoin, then that in my view is the biggest argument in the world for the price to be suppressed even lower. Wall Street funds buy direct from the miners, and sells Bitcoin on the exchanges to drive price down to secure an even cheaper price from the miners, many of whom will already be operating merely on a 'break even' basis. Ultimately, Big Capital is seeking to gain a stranglehold on the Bitcoin market and will then ensure a period of stability in order to encourage Bitcoin to be used for the purpose it was actually intended and the purpose which will prove a hugely useful tool in US foreign policy in the undermining of non-conforming nations economies. Ultimately, Bitcoin will be ramped into the stratosphere, with the main beneficiaries not being the libertarian minded 'Little Man', but Big Capital and the US government and factions aligned with it.

Admit it, if you had all the capital in the world and wanted to capitalise on Bitcoin, that is exactly how you would do it...........or would you rock up at Bitstamp with your billions and start panic dropping 10K market orders right into the Ask Wall making all the miners and little men mega wealthy at your expense?

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Wall Street is not moving into bitcoin (not the currency itself anyway) because it does not give a single flying fuck.
They are not buying bitcoin and they are not buying tulips or beanie babies either.

The only Wall Street thugs that are gonna buy bitcoin are the ones that are gonna baghold it, like Tim Draper, Barry Silbert, Brian Kelly and all the others. Already bagholdin' hard.

That's it.

[JimboToronto]

-beartard rant-

This has exactly what to do with Elliott waves?

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

-beartard rant-

This has exactly what to do with Elliott waves?

I was responding to Mat and the part of his post about Wall Street getting in.

[Tzupy]

anti-EW bla-bla-bla
.........................

PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

I said a couple of times that DanV is too bullish, but he usually gets the direction right.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

anti-EW bla-bla-bla
.........................

PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

I said a couple of times that DanV is too bullish, but he usually gets the direction right.

I remember him predicting a big rise in the middle of the august-october downtrend, no such thing happened.
Other big fuck ups too.

[JimboToronto]

I was responding to Mat and his comment about Wall Street coming in.

Oh. He and Trollchop are the only 2 on my ignore list. You're close.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

I was responding to Mat and his comment about Wall Street coming in.

Oh. He and Trollchop are the only 2 on my ignore list. You're close.

My posting style can be a little direct but I am usually fairly reasonable in the contents
No need for the ignore button 

[jonald_fyookball]

EW = bullshit.

Pretty much true.

EW Theory doesn't say much
that is meaningful other than that when there
is a major price movement, there will be an
initial spike, a pullback, a bigger move, and
then another pullback before a final push.
 
It's really not that useful.   If it helps you,
great, but IMO certainly shouldn't
be the basis of a trading strategy.

[MatTheCat]

anti-EW bla-bla-bla
.........................

PS: how many times did DanV post a wrong EW prediction on TradingView? Like 543425 times?

I said a couple of times that DanV is too bullish, but he usually gets the direction right.

^^This!

His 'predictions' are often pretty bad but his grasp on the overall market direction has been totally spot on since I have became aware of him.

I would be interested to see what his current thoughts on Bitcoin are.

Wall Street is not moving into bitcoin (not the currency itself anyway) because it does not give a single flying fuck.

You think so?

Bitcoin = banned/frowned upon by adversaries to US foreign policy, yet being given the green light in the West!?

Seems pretty fucking establishment approved to me.

I believe that you will get your wish of horrendously low Bitcoin prices that will make most in here piss their pants, but I really don't think that Bitcoin is going away, even if it may seem at one point like it will die, it won't die and one day will come back bigger than ever.

[BitBlitz]

EW = Sucker's tool

At best, EW accounts for a very minimal part of what influences value-- and is only marginally effective at predicting investor's actions in highly stable markets.  EWs can't account for politics, regulatory changes, scammers, manipulators, etc..

[JimboToronto]

EWs can't account for politics, regulatory changes, scammers, manipulators, etc..

Bingo. Those are the real-life things that should be the basis of market analysis.

[jonald_fyookball]

EWs can't account for politics, regulatory changes, scammers, manipulators, etc..

Bingo.

No TA can.

But EW isn't even good TA.

[MatTheCat]

No TA can.

But EW isn't even good TA.

This thread is getting a bit 'blah blah' already........

.......but the only Bitcoin analyst who i know to have stated when Bitcoin was still in the upper treble figures, that he expected Bitcoin to retest the $100 range, was an EW analyst basing his prediction on EW principles.

[jonald_fyookball]

No TA can.

But EW isn't even good TA.

This thread is getting a bit 'blah blah' already........

.......but the only Bitcoin analyst who i know to have stated when Bitcoin was still in the upper treble figures, that he expected Bitcoin to retest the $100 range, was an EW analyst basing his prediction on EW principles.

It never came close to $100.  Anyway, who cares?  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[JimboToronto]

EWs can't account for politics, regulatory changes, scammers, manipulators, etc..

Bingo.

No TA can.

But EW isn't even good TA.

You quoted me while I was editing my post.

You're right. No TA takes the important considerations into account.

This is why I take all "technical" analysis with a grain of salt. Fact analysis and deductive reasoning work better.