The more a read about it the more I'm convinced its an art not a science. The important thing is I don't think its something that is entirely without merit. Whether you can use it predictively to trade? Maybe. Am I going to, certainly not
What I do know is there does seem to be a some logic behind the idea of impulsive moves.
I've seen various counts proposed for the bear market, and one of my favourites was the one where the ABC bearish correction coincides with large volume spike down a few days ago.
I also like the idea put forward about the throwover, my gut tells me this would be likely especially around 'big' (primary? sorry i don't know the terminology so well) waves. I think that the long bear market we went through was a pretty solid one.
So If we are starting a new 12345 main wave then we'll also be starting the smaller waves too, what we just saw, the impulsive bounce of what may prove to be the bottom, with our first exponential run up in a long long time (we've had ups but they have always looked like corrections over over sold positions in an otherwise downwardly moving market - this looked very different).
Then the sell off, which appears to be a normal correction event in a generally bullish trend.
It all looks very much like how elliot waves would unfold.
I guess what I'm saying is I think the next bull market is here, and the charts we are seeing look like they will make for some very convincing EW counts...
sgbett,
First let me start off saying that you are a different breed of HODLer. You are a voice of reason amongst a sea of HODL, the likes of which is enough to make me want to sell my forum account to the highest
scammer bidder
(I wouldn't think of it, but hopefully you get my drift).
Next, I'm glad that you see the merit in EW. It is indeed an art. It takes a special type of commitment to fully learn and properly apply EW. It's not so hard once you begin to "get it", it's the learning process that turns many off very early. I like to believe that I proved it's merit to the naysayers of TA but it seems memories and information retention run short in this forum.
@thread
I will agree with the posters that said you can't use EW as your sole strategy. 100% agreed! I preached that in my thread. EW is too ambiguous to use alone. That said, It is an EXTREMELY useful tool when used correctly. I don't care about politics, manipulation, new exchanges or regulation... It's all factored into the waves. EW doesn't see these things ahead of time, but it does offer invalidation points to quickly adapt to the changes in the market
psychology. Psychology that is affected with every penny change that occurs in every wave, every day.
In example; USA regulates the everlasting shit outta Bitcoin, and all other exchanges decide to cooperate with the SEC/IRS/.gov and report all 'murican traders P/L. Traders flee the market in droves and causes my bullish count to end early. A whole wave early. What do I do now??? Well, the invalidation confirms that the 3 waver we just saw is now corrective and we head down. The duration is indeterminate with EW. The amplitude is unknown with EW. The only thing I can tell you is that the next move(s) are down. That is what EW does. It shows what is possible and impossible to happen next. It doesn't "predict what prices will do with precision in the following weeks or months". That isn't what it's for. EW doesn't give targets except that you can expect a price lower than X or higher than Y. That is where other tools come into play.