New diff thread Jan 27th to Feb 11 (-5.73%) to (+0.09%)

[Biodom]

It's gonna be tough all round with BTC holding in the low $200's and diff looking like it's going up again  

Its even tougher for ppl holding their miners hoping to get ROI.

Phillipma's opinion does not count because he got "free" electricity with his rent. I feel bad for ppl who just bought some miners tho....

however, it is a good time to get *some* used gear at good prices. I pay $0.09 USD for nighttime and $0.13 in the daytime/peak, so am still somewhat competitive.

and im hoping to move into ~$70/kw/month colocation very soon

I am not aware of $70 colocation. Some come close, but most with long contracts.
You probably would be better off by selling 0.5-0.65GH/w gear anyway and go for 0.2-0.3GH/w gear if and when it shows up

[alh]

Looks to me like suchmoon won't be paying out anything at this time. I think there's only one member that has a chance at this, and that's if things slow down some in the next 36 hours. If this is actually variance, then we shouldn't see another big increase after this upcoming one in a day or so. While I am no math wizard this seems like a real increase, not just statistical jitter.

[picolo]

Looks to me like suchmoon won't be paying out anything at this time. I think there's only one member that has a chance at this, and that's if things slow down some in the next 36 hours. If this is actually variance, then we shouldn't see another big increase after this upcoming one in a day or so. While I am no math wizard this seems like a real increase, not just statistical jitter.

The hashrate for the last 502 blocks has a high variance but the difficulty will increase in 1.5 days, it will be about what it was before the last change.

[philipma1957]

 found a nice chart  144 = 0%


  http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Jan 28 --------163           Jan 13 ------- 124
Jan 29 --------165           Jan 14 ------- 152
Jan 30 --------142           Jan 15 ------- 141
Jan 31 --------162           Jan 16 ------- 145
Feb  1 -------  156           Jan 17 ------- 136
Feb 2 --------  154           Jan 18 ------- 157
Feb 3 --------  133           Jan 19 ------- 141
Feb 4 -------- 158           Jan 20 ------- 122
Feb 5 -------- 159           Jan 21 ------- 146
Feb 6 -------- 171               Jan 22 ------- 138
Feb 7 -------- 162                Jan 23 ------- 121
Feb 8 --------                  Jan 24 ------- 129
Feb 9 --------                  Jan 25 ------- 124
Feb 10 -------                  Jan 26 ------- 129

As you can see every day has been over 144 but Jan31st

 Last adjustment 4  days over 144  10 under

note blocks made on feb 3  nice drop.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

back up on the 4th


You can't quite chart perfectly with the above since the 27th is straddling both diff numbers

but 1233 blocks were done in 8 days    'normal' is 8 x 144 = 1152   so we are up   7.03%   like I said we are missing part of Jan 27th and

today feb 5  

   on Jan 27th we made 145 blocks    I do not remember the exact time we switched difficulty but if you include all of Jan 27

we go to 1378 blocks in 9 days   normal is 9 x 144 = 1296  so we are up  6.32%  

And 1 more big one 159

means 1537 in 10 days this is around 6.73% if you count Jan 27th

and the biggest number in a few weeks 171

this is 1708 block in 11 days = 155.27 blocks a day or (+7.82%).



   What does it mean?
 I would think  a big boy like KNC  or Bitfury is bringing a plant on line.  Others may want to say variance but not this time.


[/quote]  feb 7th was 162

that is 1870 in 12 days = 155.833 or (+ 8.21%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:   44,240,309,725 (+7.19%)
Adjust time:   After 209 Blocks, About 1.4 days
Hashrate(?):   330,928,961 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 28.0 minutes
6 blocks: 56.0 minutes
Updated:   23:20 (5.6 minutes ago)



+ 7 or +8 are both high  we look to be very close to 44.7 - 44.9

   either one will be an all time high

[buyandhold]

willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai

[picolo]

willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai

We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.

[philipma1957]

willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai

We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.

close enough to true. btw if we see-saw for a few months time up and down 5% with stable btc at 225 or so it does not kill my setup price wise.   

[picolo]

willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai

We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.

close enough to true. btw if we see-saw for a few months time up and down 5% with stable btc at 225 or so it does not kill my setup price wise.   

What price do you need to break even not considering the cost of the equipement but just maintenance costs?

[philipma1957]

willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai

We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.

close enough to true. btw if we see-saw for a few months time up and down 5% with stable btc at 225 or so it does not kill my setup price wise.  

What price do you need to break even not considering the cost of the equipement but just maintenance costs?

diff of 45.0 and btc at  160 I am good $ 5.50 a day
diff of 45.0 and btc at  140 I am good  $3.00 a day

diff of 50 and btc at 160 I am good  $3.50 a day
diff of 50 and btc at 140 I am good  $ 1.00 a day

diff of 60 and btc at 160 I am good   $0.34 a day
diff of 60 and btc at 140 I am down   $1.65 a day


so I could stand diff of 45-50 and  btc at 180 usd  before I start to sweat.

[picolo]

willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai

We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.

close enough to true. btw if we see-saw for a few months time up and down 5% with stable btc at 225 or so it does not kill my setup price wise.  

What price do you need to break even not considering the cost of the equipement but just maintenance costs?

diff of 45.0 and btc at  160 I am good $ 5.50 a day
diff of 45.0 and btc at  140 I am good  $3.00 a day

diff of 50 and btc at 160 I am good  $3.50 a day
diff of 50 and btc at 140 I am good  $ 1.00 a day

diff of 60 and btc at 160 I am good   $0.34 a day
diff of 60 and btc at 140 I am down   $1.65 a day


so I could stand diff of 45-50 and  btc at 180 usd  before I start to sweat.

So you still have some margin. If you mine at a loss, you are still acquiring bitcoins with a premium, up to 3% premium is fine.

[philipma1957]

willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai

We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.

close enough to true. btw if we see-saw for a few months time up and down 5% with stable btc at 225 or so it does not kill my setup price wise.  

What price do you need to break even not considering the cost of the equipement but just maintenance costs?

diff of 45.0 and btc at  160 I am good $ 5.50 a day
diff of 45.0 and btc at  140 I am good  $3.00 a day

diff of 50 and btc at 160 I am good  $3.50 a day
diff of 50 and btc at 140 I am good  $ 1.00 a day

diff of 60 and btc at 160 I am good   $0.34 a day
diff of 60 and btc at 140 I am down   $1.65 a day


so I could stand diff of 45-50 and  btc at 180 usd  before I start to sweat.

So you still have some margin. If you mine at a loss, you are still acquiring bitcoins with a premium, up to 3% premium is fine.

yeah I should be able to hang in until June when my summer power rates hit.
What I usually do it sell 60 days early so Summer rates are June 15th I need to sell my in house around april 1st. 

[notlist3d]

Looking like a little more change then it was looking like:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    44,295,845,423 (+7.32%)
Adjust time:    After 70 Blocks, About 10.9 hours

[philipma1957]

and it was (+7.71%) not sure if we have a winner.  I think  buyandhold was closest at + 5.99%  and that was more then 1% off.

As I understand suchmoon's promo the new guess will be .1+.1

I will leave this open a bit for suchmoon to check in..

Thank you. 0.1 BTC for the most accurate difficulty guess, no strings attached, just some basic rules:

Deadline is 16:00 (4 PM) UTC February 1st, 2015, about 5 days from now and roughly 1/3 into the cycle.

A guess is a percentage with up to two decimal places (I'll round it if you put more than two) posted here in this thread. No PMs or posts elsewhere or anything else. Must include a "+" or "-" sign. No special "enrollment" wording or format is needed for the bounty - just post like you would normally do, as long as it's clear that you're predicting the next diff change percentage.

If you guess multiple times only the last one (not the best one) submitted before the deadline will be counted.

To win you must guess within 1 percentage point of the actual change. The guess that is nearest to the actual change wins. If nobody is within 1 percentage point the bounty will roll over to the next cycle.

Your number must be unique. If you would like your guess to be considered for the bounty please review previous guesses and make sure your number is different from all others. I will try to warn if I see duplicates but if a duplicate slips through only the first member who posted that number will be eligible for the bounty.

To determine the winner I will use the percentage shown by bitcoinwisdom (table at the bottom of the page) after the next adjustment.

To collect the bounty the winner will need to PM me their BTC address and the TX ID will be posted publicly.

Allow up to 2-3 days after the next adjustment for me to pay out, although I should be able to do it much sooner than that - just covering my ass I get sick/drunk etc.

I think that's it, if I missed something obvious let me know.

Edit: clarified that it's "within 1 percentage point" (not 1 percent, which might be confusing). So if diff change is -2.45% for example, you must have guessed between -3.45 and -1.45 to be eligible for a win.

Edit2: added a link to bitcoinwisdom.com difficulty page. Slightly clarified eligibility.

Edit3: as suggested by philipma1957 I'm reviewing the situation with multiple winners. I have added a condition that in case of duplicates only the first occurrence will be considered.

I know those two last attempts were a little bit past the deadline but I'm going to count them in because the site was down for quite a while. Next time I'm going to include some verbiage in the rules to make it fair for everyone. So here is the final list:

railzand  -3.00%
BTCish -2.00%
mavericklm -0.01%
notlist3d -2.50%
tarmi -1.24%
Kexkey -0.27%
SunnyIgor -3.20%
wpt1wpt1 +3.20%
stonerider +0.10%
davejh +5.50%
tsm13 -2.24%
alh +1.95%
skuser +2.00%
SimplisticStu +0.75%
buyandhold +5.99%
armedmilitia +3.00%
klondike_bar +1.55%
tss +4.80%
philipma1957 +4.09%

Let me know if I missed anything. No more entries will be eligible for the bounty, but please don't stop estimating/speculating/guessing.

I'd say +5% this time around. but a decrease next time if BTC stays below $250.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013   86,933,018   32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013   65,750,060   29.40%   470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013   50,810,339   35.88%   363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013   37,392,766   19.63%   267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013   31,256,961   19.47%   223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013   26,162,876   22.63%   187,281 GH/s

[suchmoon]

Nobody wins unfortunately due to this:

To win you must guess within 1 percentage point of the actual change.

The good news is that the next cycle will have a 0.2 BTC bounty. I'll post the slightly revised rules when the new thread opens.

[SimplisticStu]

The difficulty increase 3,182,542,067 equates to roughly the OVERALL network difficulty only 12 months ago  

Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s

[philipma1957]

okay suchmoon checked in  will lock very soon.

new thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=950472.0

[philipma1957]

bumped to put in time order.