New diff thread Jan 27th to Feb 11 (-5.73%) to (+0.09%)

[philipma1957]

  
locked

new thread  is here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=950472.0




 Self Modded (thank you  seriouscoin )

  @ notlist3 I am snowed in and have sometime to do this thread



Price is  252 usd

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:   38,908,108,805>>>>>>>>> (-5.73%)   so this one
Adjust time:   After 2015 Blocks, About 14.5 days
Hashrate(?):   281,875,693 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   10:40 (4.8 minutes ago)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   340707
Total BTC   13.768M
 
Difficulty   41272873895
Estimated   41311079660 in 2013 blks >>>>>>>>> (+0.09%)  this one
 
Network total   303838.028 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.80 / 620 s


As usual   the two I use have a spread.  1 is real time(bitcoincharts) 1 is past performance (bitcoinwisdom)

  if you average them you get about  

(-2.82%)       <<<    all three bolded point to this


 Been using this number  from bitcoincharts  if you use Blocks/hour   5.80 / 620 s  after 3 blocks      you get (-3.33%)  this one

these are early numbers  so we can track day by day.  

 My gut is  diff is very much locked into  btc price right now.  

 keep an eye  coinbase's new exchange  first usa based btc exchange   they may really be able to move the price upwards .

https://exchange.coinbase.com/  

[1714123278]

1714123278

[1714123278]

1714123278

[1714123278]

1714123278

[SimplisticStu]

Thanks for the update, I shall keep an eye on this thread 

[suchmoon]

philipma1957, if you don't mind I'd like to offer a small bounty for the most accurate guess. Not trying to hijack your thread, just a reward for something we're doing here anyway...

Let me know if that's ok with you.

[philipma1957]

philipma1957, if you don't mind I'd like to offer a small bounty for the most accurate guess. Not trying to hijack your thread, just a reward for something we're doing here anyway...

Let me know if that's ok with you.

works for me .

  I am at (-2.82%)

[SimplisticStu]

philipma1957, if you don't mind I'd like to offer a small bounty for the most accurate guess. Not trying to hijack your thread, just a reward for something we're doing here anyway...

Let me know if that's ok with you.

Can I guess?

If so, my guess is -3.58%

What bounty are you offering?

[suchmoon]

Thank you. 0.1 BTC for the most accurate difficulty guess, no strings attached, just some basic rules:

Deadline is 16:00 (4 PM) UTC February 1st, 2015, about 5 days from now and roughly 1/3 into the cycle.

A guess is a percentage with up to two decimal places (I'll round it if you put more than two) posted here in this thread. No PMs or posts elsewhere or anything else. Must include a "+" or "-" sign. No special "enrollment" wording or format is needed for the bounty - just post like you would normally do, as long as it's clear that you're predicting the next diff change percentage.

If you guess multiple times only the last one (not the best one) submitted before the deadline will be counted.

To win you must guess within 1 percentage point of the actual change. The guess that is nearest to the actual change wins. If nobody is within 1 percentage point the bounty will roll over to the next cycle.

Your number must be unique. If you would like your guess to be considered for the bounty please review previous guesses and make sure your number is different from all others. I will try to warn if I see duplicates but if a duplicate slips through only the first member who posted that number will be eligible for the bounty.

To determine the winner I will use the percentage shown by bitcoinwisdom (table at the bottom of the page) after the next adjustment.

To collect the bounty the winner will need to PM me their BTC address and the TX ID will be posted publicly.

Allow up to 2-3 days after the next adjustment for me to pay out, although I should be able to do it much sooner than that - just covering my ass I get sick/drunk etc.

I think that's it, if I missed something obvious let me know.

Edit: clarified that it's "within 1 percentage point" (not 1 percent, which might be confusing). So if diff change is -2.45% for example, you must have guessed between -3.45 and -1.45 to be eligible for a win.

Edit2: added a link to bitcoinwisdom.com difficulty page. Slightly clarified eligibility.

Edit3: as suggested by philipma1957 I'm reviewing the situation with multiple winners. I have added a condition that in case of duplicates only the first occurrence will be considered.

[notlist3d]

It was nice to see a negative move and BTC gain some on value.  Hopefully trend continues.

[railzand]

Well thank you both.
I guess bang on -3%

[philipma1957]

Thank you. 0.1 BTC for the most accurate difficulty guess, no strings attached, just some basic rules:

Deadline is 16:00 (4 PM) UTC February 1st, 2015, about 5 days from now and roughly 1/3 into the cycle.

A guess is a percentage with up to two decimal places (I'll round it if you put more than two) posted here in this thread. No PMs or posts elsewhere or anything else. Must include a "+" or "-" sign. No special "enrollment" wording or format is needed for the bounty - just post like you would normally do, as long as it's clear that you're predicting the next diff change percentage.

If you guess multiple times only the last one (not the best one) submitted before the deadline will be counted.

To win you must guess within 1 percentage point of the actual change. The guess that is nearest to the actual change wins. If nobody is within 1 percentage point the bounty will roll over to the next cycle.

If multiple posters guess the same number and win I'll split the bounty. If more than 10 posters win I won't bother splitting and will roll it over to the next cycle.

To determine the winner I will use the percentage shown by bitcoinwisdom (table at the bottom of the page) after the next adjustment.

To collect the bounty the winner will need to PM me their BTC address and the TX ID will be posted publicly.

Allow up to 2-3 days after the next adjustment for me to pay out, although I should be able to do it much sooner than that - just covering my ass I get sick/drunk etc.

I think that's it, if I missed something obvious let me know.

Edit: clarified that it's "within 1 percentage point" (not 1 percent, which might be confusing). So if diff change is -2.45% for example, you must have guessed between -3.45 and -1.45 to be eligible for a win.

Edit2: added a link to bitcoinwisdom.com difficulty page. Slightly clarified eligibility.

 May I suggest first to pick a number 'owns' the number.

 IE   my pick is my pick and no one can use it.  This prevents someone from  matching your pick just to fuck with your head.

I did - 2.82%

SimplisticStu did -3.58%

railzand  did -3.00%

[suchmoon]

If multiple posters guess the same number and win I'll split the bounty. If more than 10 posters win I won't bother splitting and will roll it over to the next cycle.

 May I suggest first to pick a number 'owns' the number.

 IE   my pick is my pick and no one can use it.  This prevents someone from  matching your pick just to fuck with your head.

I did - 2.82%

SimplisticStu did -3.58%

railzand  did -3.00%

Good point. Let me think about that. I don't want to complicate this with duplicate tracking etc.

[philipma1957]

If multiple posters guess the same number and win I'll split the bounty. If more than 10 posters win I won't bother splitting and will roll it over to the next cycle.

 May I suggest first to pick a number 'owns' the number.

 IE   my pick is my pick and no one can use it.  This prevents someone from  matching your pick just to fuck with your head.

I did - 2.82%

SimplisticStu did -3.58%

railzand  did -3.00%

Good point. Let me think about that. I don't want to complicate this with duplicate tracking etc.

yeah I thought that may be a problem.

[mavericklm]

0% 

[BTCish]

I think it will get some -2 %, maybe 3.

[klondike_bar]

I'm saving my 'real' guess until closer to the deadline, but I will go with +0.00
feels like the price bounce and the flat difficulty have shaken most of the inefficient miners out, and without an increase in difficulty, anyone who is efficient won't leave, and many new machines will come on to replace whatever holdouts are being turned off.
(I know at ~0.12/kwh USD this 6% drop made my S2 useful again)


If price pushes past $300 again though, we could see a larger jump

(maybe we should constrain people to using a single decimal point, so that people dont try "outbidding" by 0.01%'s.

[SimplisticStu]

I'm saving my 'real' guess until closer to the deadline, but I will go with +0.00
feels like the price bounce and the flat difficulty have shaken most of the inefficient miners out, and without an increase in difficulty, anyone who is efficient won't leave, and many new machines will come on to replace whatever holdouts are being turned off.
(I know at ~0.12/kwh USD this 6% drop made my S2 useful again)


If price pushes past $300 again though, we could see a larger jump

(maybe we should constrain people to using a single decimal point, so that people dont try "outbidding" by 0.01%'s.

Don't miss the deadline for your real guess 

"Deadline is 16:00 (4 PM) UTC February 1st, 2015" quoted by suchmoon

[suchmoon]

I have changed the wording on duplicates. Basically it means you should try to make your guesses unique, I'll do my best to warn if there is a duplicate, and if duplicates remain in the final list then only the first one will be considered for the win. As it stands now:

philipma1957 - 2.82%
SimplisticStu -3.58%
railzand  -3.00%
mavericklm 0.00%
BTCish -2.00% (because -3.00% is already taken; if you prefer that number please adjust your guess to -3.01 or -2.99 or similar)
klondike_bar ineligible so far because 0.00% is already taken.

I'll try to review this daily, hopefully the list won't balloon to unmanageable size, it's only BTC0.1

[mavericklm]

I give my place to klondike_bar  and take -0.01%

[notlist3d]

I have changed the wording on duplicates. Basically it means you should try to make your guesses unique, I'll do my best to warn if there is a duplicate, and if duplicates remain in the final list then only the first one will be considered for the win. As it stands now:

philipma1957 - 2.82%
SimplisticStu -3.58%
railzand  -3.00%
mavericklm 0.00%
BTCish -2.00% (because -3.00% is already taken; if you prefer that number please adjust your guess to -3.01 or -2.99 or similar)
klondike_bar ineligible so far because 0.00% is already taken.

I'll try to review this daily, hopefully the list won't balloon to unmanageable size, it's only BTC0.1

I am guessing around - 2.5%

[tarmi]

I have changed the wording on duplicates. Basically it means you should try to make your guesses unique, I'll do my best to warn if there is a duplicate, and if duplicates remain in the final list then only the first one will be considered for the win. As it stands now:

philipma1957 - 2.82%
SimplisticStu -3.58%
railzand  -3.00%
mavericklm 0.00%
BTCish -2.00% (because -3.00% is already taken; if you prefer that number please adjust your guess to -3.01 or -2.99 or similar)
klondike_bar ineligible so far because 0.00% is already taken.

I'll try to review this daily, hopefully the list won't balloon to unmanageable size, it's only BTC0.1

- 1.24 %

[Kexkey]

Good idea!  It's still early but I'm guessing -0.27%.