Sorry, it doesn't work that way.
This is a flawed analysis. Just because
there is a trend on a logarithmic chart
(Bitcoin exploded from nothing to something),
doesn't mean it will continue, and 2014
proved that in no uncertain terms.
Have to agree with your analysis. And also, the bull run in the late 2013 was
mostly as a result of MtGox rigging their trade-book. May be in another 4-5 years, when the demand exceeds the supply, we will witness another bull run, similar to the one in 2013.
Yes, this rigged trading book (Willy bot) is something most people seem to forget or not factor in. The $1200 price was (partially) artificially created! China jumped on board too, but how much of that was due to the Willy bot making the price continue to rise, enticing the Chinese in to the scam? Willy bot was a
HUUGE factor imo. I think we just finally finished correcting from this within the past week. It took over a year-- that's how much damage the bot caused. Mark Karpeles is evil on so many levels.