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Author Topic: What If Scenario - Bitcoin capturing 1% of Western Union Transaction Fees  (Read 1870 times)
TraderTimm
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July 19, 2012, 01:58:59 AM
 #1

This thought experiment is probably full of some large holes, but just as an evening diversion I thought I'd throw this in here.

Western Union made $1.16 Billion on transfer fees in 2011.

$1,160,000,000

One percent of that figure is:

$11,600,000

Total number of BTC that represents at a current market price of  9.14 is:
~1,269,146

That number is about 13.38% of total Bitcoins in circulation.

Now, looking at mtGox's order book: http://mtgoxlive.com/orders

At the time of this posting it would take $432,281 to reach the price of 10.93

Now, the 'big leap' - if we can assume that same dollar amount for every +$1.79 of price movement (offers consistently appear) then:

$11.6 million divided by $432,281 = 26.834 multiples of $1.79 rise in price, so the final price is:

26.834 * $1.79 = 48.03357

Current price 9.14 + 48.03357 = 57.17357

And now, this is where you say 'no offers will come' and 'we won't get 1% of international wire transfers'. Still, interesting based on some really small figures from the real world, wouldn't you agree?

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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July 19, 2012, 02:04:53 AM
 #2

cool story bro

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
TraderTimm
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July 19, 2012, 02:08:42 AM
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cool story bro

I knew I could rely on your insightful commentary. I like how its practically meme-free, indicating original thought and critical thinking.

Lollerz...

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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July 19, 2012, 02:11:20 AM
 #4

sorry, but I think we already have enough of these kind of threads/conjectures of BTC capturing some percentage of *something*.
It always leads to the same conclusions and the discussions are identical in structure.

boring

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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July 19, 2012, 02:12:57 AM
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sorry, but I think we already have enough of these kind of threads/conjectures of BTC capturing some percentage of *something*.

Luckily you aren't the arbiter of "enough of something". Besides, if it doesn't interest you - why bother? Unless you just like to take cheap shots from the safety of your keyboard...

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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July 19, 2012, 02:15:47 AM
 #6

But I'd have to start replying to threads on page 2,3-4 if that gets any worse, when effectively the same kind of thing is debated in every thread on the frontpage.

I think it is my right to complain at this point.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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July 19, 2012, 02:23:07 AM
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I think it is my right to complain at this point.

Well, at least you're good at something.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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July 19, 2012, 02:32:41 AM
 #8

If one were to buy 11.6 million USD worth of BTC at market on MtGox today the price of 1 BTC would rise to 1 million USD. As crazy as this may sound it is indicative of how minuscule the Bitcoin economy is today.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
adamstgBit
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July 19, 2012, 02:34:37 AM
 #9

If one were to buy 11.6 million USD worth of BTC at market on MtGox today the price of 1 BTC would rise to 1 million USD. As crazy as this may sound it is indicative of how minuscule the Bitcoin economy is today.


lol!

this would be the most epic bubble

from 1mill pre coin to 100$  ( in under 1 hour )

what do you think is gana happen if all of a  suddend each coin is worth 1mill?

ArticMine
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July 19, 2012, 02:40:17 AM
 #10

If one were to buy 11.6 million USD worth of BTC at market on MtGox today the price of 1 BTC would rise to 1 million USD. As crazy as this may sound it is indicative of how minuscule the Bitcoin economy is today.


lol!

this would be the most epic bubble

from 1mill pre coin to 100$

If past history is any indication more like a drop from 1,000,000 USD to say 65,000 USD in a six month bear market.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
ineededausername
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July 19, 2012, 02:42:12 AM
 #11

This thought experiment is probably full of some large holes, but just as an evening diversion I thought I'd throw this in here.

Western Union made $1.16 Billion on transfer fees in 2011.

$1,160,000,000

One percent of that figure is:

$11,600,000

Total number of BTC that represents at a current market price of  9.14 is:
~1,269,146

That number is about 13.38% of total Bitcoins in circulation.

Now, looking at mtGox's order book: http://mtgoxlive.com/orders

At the time of this posting it would take $432,281 to reach the price of 10.93

Now, the 'big leap' - if we can assume that same dollar amount for every +$1.79 of price movement (offers consistently appear) then:

$11.6 million divided by $432,281 = 26.834 multiples of $1.79 rise in price, so the final price is:

26.834 * $1.79 = 48.03357

Current price 9.14 + 48.03357 = 57.17357

And now, this is where you say 'no offers will come' and 'we won't get 1% of international wire transfers'. Still, interesting based on some really small figures from the real world, wouldn't you agree?


This is the 1000th time I've seen a thread saying, "if Bitcoin were to capture Herp industry and Derp fees and Hurr business, one bitcoin would be worth $10000000000000000."

I've got a constructive recommendation: perhaps we should move all of these threads of the same form into a megathread, titled "Price Scenarios" or something.

(BFL)^2 < 0
ElectricMucus
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July 19, 2012, 02:45:52 AM
 #12

This thought experiment is probably full of some large holes, but just as an evening diversion I thought I'd throw this in here.

Western Union made $1.16 Billion on transfer fees in 2011.

$1,160,000,000

One percent of that figure is:

$11,600,000

Total number of BTC that represents at a current market price of  9.14 is:
~1,269,146

That number is about 13.38% of total Bitcoins in circulation.

Now, looking at mtGox's order book: http://mtgoxlive.com/orders

At the time of this posting it would take $432,281 to reach the price of 10.93

Now, the 'big leap' - if we can assume that same dollar amount for every +$1.79 of price movement (offers consistently appear) then:

$11.6 million divided by $432,281 = 26.834 multiples of $1.79 rise in price, so the final price is:

26.834 * $1.79 = 48.03357

Current price 9.14 + 48.03357 = 57.17357

And now, this is where you say 'no offers will come' and 'we won't get 1% of international wire transfers'. Still, interesting based on some really small figures from the real world, wouldn't you agree?


This is the 1000th time I've seen a thread saying, "if Bitcoin were to capture Herp industry and Derp fees and Hurr business, one bitcoin would be worth $10000000000000000."

I've got a constructive recommendation: perhaps we should move all of these threads of the same form into a megathread, titled "Price Scenarios" or something.
Or collect all the posts and drop them in here  Grin

I think that would be in TraderTimms best interest!

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
adamstgBit
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July 19, 2012, 02:48:24 AM
 #13

If one were to buy 11.6 million USD worth of BTC at market on MtGox today the price of 1 BTC would rise to 1 million USD. As crazy as this may sound it is indicative of how minuscule the Bitcoin economy is today.


lol!

this would be the most epic bubble

from 1mill pre coin to 100$

If past history is any indication more like a drop from 1,000,000 USD to say 65,000 USD in a six month bear market.

I dont know about you but I'd like to be a millionaire 300 times over!

Oh OK ill take for 1 million for 300coins
OK fine ill take 1/2 million for 300coin


65,0000USD for each of my 300coin... hmmm let me think about that... ya ok DEAL!
...

11.6 million USD invested wisely ( not bought up all at once like some crazy person)
would bring us to (pulls a number out of his ass) 20-30$
and the guy would have about 1/2 million coins

Jointops420
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July 19, 2012, 02:52:15 AM
 #14

Sometimes its hard to see anything from my lowly position in the shadows amongst the towering egos and mental giants in these forums.
adamstgBit
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July 19, 2012, 03:02:42 AM
 #15

Sometimes its hard to see anything from my lowly position in the shadows amongst the towering egos and mental giants in these forums.

the small players do have an advantage in this market

when you decide to double your coins you dont have to worry about pumping up the price as much as someone with say 2 million, even a 1/2 million dollar investment in bitcoin has to be handled with care (cant just hit buy button).

TraderTimm
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July 19, 2012, 03:03:28 AM
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This is the 1000th time I've seen a thread saying, "if Bitcoin were to capture Herp industry and Derp fees and Hurr business, one bitcoin would be worth $10000000000000000."

I've got a constructive recommendation: perhaps we should move all of these threads of the same form into a megathread, titled "Price Scenarios" or something.

Yeah, god forbid you read the detailed subject line, snort derisively and move on. Its better to complain and make a spectacle, you're *so* right.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
TraderTimm
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July 19, 2012, 03:04:36 AM
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Or collect all the posts and drop them in here  Grin

I think that would be in TraderTimms best interest!

Must be a slow night in your mother's basement.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
TraderTimm
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July 19, 2012, 03:05:45 AM
 #18

Sometimes its hard to see anything from my lowly position in the shadows amongst the towering egos and mental giants in these forums.

Just quote a popular internet meme, link in some rage comics and you'll fit right in! That is, if you want to be exactly like some of the more 'colorful' characters in here.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
ArticMine
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July 19, 2012, 03:09:59 AM
 #19

If one were to buy 11.6 million USD worth of BTC at market on MtGox today the price of 1 BTC would rise to 1 million USD. As crazy as this may sound it is indicative of how minuscule the Bitcoin economy is today.


lol!

this would be the most epic bubble

from 1mill pre coin to 100$

If past history is any indication more like a drop from 1,000,000 USD to say 65,000 USD in a six month bear market.

I dont know about you but I'd like to be a millionaire 300 times over!

Oh OK ill take for 1 million for 300coins
OK fine ill take 1/2 million for 300coin


65,0000USD for each of my 300coin... hmmm let me think about that... ya ok DEAL!
...

11.6 million USD invested wisely ( not bought up all at once like some crazy person)
would bring us to (pulls a number out of his ass) 20-30$
and the guy would have about 1/2 million coins

What I mentioned is an extreme that would have yielded our buyer over 126728 BTC at an average cost per bitcoin under $100. At the other extreme a very slow approach also runs the danger of setting off a buying panic and could end up yielding less bitcoin. There is likely some in between optimal strategy to maximize the amount of bitcoin for the 11.6 million USD over a period of time.  

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
Jointops420
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July 19, 2012, 03:23:29 AM
 #20

Sometimes its hard to see anything from my lowly position in the shadows amongst the towering egos and mental giants in these forums.

Just quote a popular internet meme, link in some rage comics and you'll fit right in! That is, if you want to be exactly like some of the more 'colorful' characters in here.

Lol I will try and pass the offer up. Its not hard to see why things are the way they are on the forums, lots of people passionate one way or another and everyone hopes their guess at the future is the right one.
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