[POLL] when will the panic buying begin?

[smoothie]

I got to thinking that not many people (myself included) actually realize how close we are to block reward halving.

The poll is when do you think people will wake up and realize bitcoins aren't going to be any easier to mine nor buy for that matter (at low prices)?

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[Bigpiggy01]

Dude if they haven't realized it already they're thicker than month old kfc porridge.

[smoothie]

Dude if they haven't realized it already they're thicker than month old kfc porridge.

Price has a lot to do with my question. If there was a panic....price would not be where it is now...

[SaintFlow]

after those who sold into the rally get over their initial euphoria and get a strong visceral sensation
that the dollar ain't what it used to be.

I doubt that there will be much panic buying because of reward halfing.

What counts is what the ASICS owners do with their coins.

[smoothie]

I think this fall/winter we will have another financial crisis...this could spark many things

[SaintFlow]

I think this fall/winter we will have another financial crisis...this could spark many things

no need to wail till fall.

Just look at Germany tomorrow. Germans will have to "save" Spanish banks.
That alone is bad. But what will make for the FUD icing is that it is not decided
who will have to pay for the credit the Germans give to Spanish banks if they cannot
pay it back. Germans want the Spanish goverment to inshure it and the Spanish goverment
will say "WHY?"
Just lean back and watch

[geek-trader]

I got to thinking that not many people (myself included) actually realize how close we are to block reward halving.

The poll is when do you think people will wake up and realize bitcoins aren't going to be any easier to mine nor buy for that matter (at low prices)?

You are right my friend.  Fucking right.  I just cancelled my sell orders at 12, 14, 16.

I'm a miner and I've been waiting to sell for 6+ months, for the  price to get to 12+.  But you are right.  6 more months and the reward goes to 1/2.  1/2 as much BTC being sold by miners should reduce the downward pressure on the market.

The current price upswing seems to be real, on real support.  When the selling rate goes down, then price should go even higher.

I've waited a long time to sell. I can wait a while longer.

[Cluster2k]

People panic buy to cover shorts, or if there's a shortage of an essential commodity.  With Bitcoinica gone and bitcoins not an essential commodity it seems both requirements cannot be met. 

If the price starts going exponential again there may be fever pitch buying like in June 2011, but it's a race to see who can buy and cash out before the bubble pops.  The panic starts on the way down.

[smoothie]

People panic buy to cover shorts, or if there's a shortage of an essential commodity.  With Bitcoinica gone and bitcoins not an essential commodity it seems both requirements cannot be met. 

If the price starts going exponential again there may be fever pitch buying like in June 2011, but it's a race to see who can buy and cash out before the bubble pops.  The panic starts on the way down.

Ur referring to panic selling....not panic buying.

[cloon]

its on first august cause switzerland has its national day! 

[proudhon]

We probably just saw it begin and end.  I still think there's a good chance the block reward change negatively affects price.

[coin_toss]

bitcoin and panic buying/selling just seem to go together so nicely. I think there will be plenty more over coming months

[ArticMine]

People panic buy to cover shorts, or if there's a shortage of an essential commodity.  With Bitcoinica gone and bitcoins not an essential commodity it seems both requirements cannot be met. 

If the price starts going exponential again there may be fever pitch buying like in June 2011, but it's a race to see who can buy and cash out before the bubble pops.  The panic starts on the way down.

This ignores one very big player who under the right set of circumstances can get caught in a nasty Bitcoin short squeeze. Hint take a look at the trading activity on July 17, 2012.

[TraderTimm]

My vote is September, but could easily be within the Sep - Oct timeframe. I bet we have another financial crisis come to the surface in that time period, whether it is the Euro or just our own domestic markets taking a dirtnap.

This will cause some displacement from the current 'store of wealth' to alternatives, which include bitcoin. Especially if there is a bank panic/run involved. Going to be interesting times, for sure...

[cypherdoc]

I think this fall/winter we will have another financial crisis...this could spark many things

its beginning now.

[smoothie]

I think this fall/winter we will have another financial crisis...this could spark many things

its beginning now.

I agree...i just don't believe it has fully unraveled.

[mooseman99]

I got to thinking that not many people (myself included) actually realize how close we are to block reward halving.

The poll is when do you think people will wake up and realize bitcoins aren't going to be any easier to mine nor buy for that matter (at low prices)?

I don't get it.  When the block reward halves, doesn't the difficulty decrease as well? So it will be just as easy to get bitcoins? 

[smoothie]

I got to thinking that not many people (myself included) actually realize how close we are to block reward halving.

The poll is when do you think people will wake up and realize bitcoins aren't going to be any easier to mine nor buy for that matter (at low prices)?

I don't get it.  When the block reward halves, doesn't the difficulty decrease as well? So it will be just as easy to get bitcoins? 

If it is more difficult...do you think it will be more easy?

Think about it...

[cheat_2_win]

I got to thinking that not many people (myself included) actually realize how close we are to block reward halving.

The poll is when do you think people will wake up and realize bitcoins aren't going to be any easier to mine nor buy for that matter (at low prices)?

I don't get it.  When the block reward halves, doesn't the difficulty decrease as well? So it will be just as easy to get bitcoins? 

Not necessary. At the current price level, the miners can continue mining with a comfortable profit margin. That is without considering the prospect of bitcoin becoming a widely used mechanism for financial transactions. Since, the difficulty did not substantially decrease even when the prices was hovering around $2.00, it is very unlikely we will see any substantial decrease after the reward is halved. Whether it will go substantially up or not, that is still uncertain. My feeling is, with the availability of ASICs, difficulty will go up in the future.

[mooseman99]

I got to thinking that not many people (myself included) actually realize how close we are to block reward halving.

The poll is when do you think people will wake up and realize bitcoins aren't going to be any easier to mine nor buy for that matter (at low prices)?

I don't get it.  When the block reward halves, doesn't the difficulty decrease as well? So it will be just as easy to get bitcoins?  

If it is more difficult...do you think it will be more easy?

Think about it...

Doesn't the difficulty reflect the amount of computing power in use at the time?  
So if the block reward is halved, mining is no longer profitable, so less people mine and computing power goes down until difficulty reaches about half of what it was, where people will then start mining again because it's profitable?
Perhaps this is not 50% of what it is now but I'd assume it's a significant decrease.

Not necessary. At the current price level, the miners can continue mining with a comfortable profit margin. That is without considering the prospect of bitcoin becoming a widely used mechanism for financial transactions. Since, the difficulty did not substantially decrease even when the prices was hovering around $2.00, it is very unlikely we will see any substantial decrease after the reward is halved. Whether it will go substantially up or not, that is still uncertain. My feeling is, with the availability of ASICs, difficulty will go up in the future.

You think that halving the reward will not impact the amount of people mining?