Mid-Term Market Prediction Contest (Round 1 - The Results)

[BuildTheFuture]

(a) $275
(b) $87
(c) $191

https://blockchain.info/en/tx/8c0546b1d9528e5031228838fd15283e54f1ef12afe6a00677a1baced78145ae

[oda.krell]

476
194
292

i will be able to send btc in approx. 24hrs

Pretty sure I have seen more than one transaction coming from your account previously. Accepted and locked in.

570
210
320

To the Moon!  

https://blockchain.info/tx/3f149e0d0a7282efd185866cf3f542d515015d615fcd7bf2b2220665b5245a9d

Accepted

Fun contest!

478
192
312

txid: https://blockchain.info/nl/tx/7bacbca5e8f4211a411954a223a76b8be9faef1c33b2c46d7d1761f9c7efb91a

Accepted as well.

(a) $275
(b) $87
(c) $191

https://blockchain.info/en/tx/8c0546b1d9528e5031228838fd15283e54f1ef12afe6a00677a1baced78145ae

Thanks. Last prediction that will be accepted for this round of the contest. (It was approximately midnight CET, no? )

I'll put all the predictions in a table and post it here, plus mean and median values of the entries, when I have the time.

can I make prediction just for the sake of the lulz?

(no spare btc at the moment, sorry)

Sure, go ahead

[oda.krell]

... I'll put all the predictions in a table and post it here, plus mean and median values of the entries, when I have the time.

Went faster than I thought...


Our collective predictions for the period of February 9 2015 to May 9 2015

[sgbett]

(a) $275
(b) $87
(c) $191

https://blockchain.info/en/tx/8c0546b1d9528e5031228838fd15283e54f1ef12afe6a00677a1baced78145ae

i see what you did there!

edit: looks like I am dead last for the all time low already... man I'm so good it these things

edit2: wait a second! those uber low guesses are still worse! hurrah not as bad as I thought

[oda.krell]

What I find interesting is that out of the 10 submissions, 8 are more or less saying the bottom is in (until May at least), even if there's another test of the near- or sub-200s.

I'm planning to do another round when this one is over (in May), but then I'll find a way for everyone to submit his or her predictions "silently" (something through a Google form I guess), because I'm under the impressions results are skewed by a coordination effect among submitters (that, and the overall residual bullishness of course )

[RyNinDaCleM]

What I find interesting is that out of the 10 submissions, 8 are more or less saying the bottom is in (until May at least), even if there's another test of the near- or sub-200s.

I'm planning to do another round when this one is over (in May), but then I'll find a way for everyone to submit his or her predictions "silently" (something through a Google form I guess), because I'm under the impressions results are skewed by a coordination effect among submitters (that, and the overall residual bullishness of course )

I'll have you know, being first and all, I did not coordinate with anyone
I do see a bit of tight prices forcing someone to be exactly right in order to win. I didn't notice if the rules are like "The price is right" TV game show where "closest price without going over" is in effect, but some are going to have a bad day.

One more note, I am probably way off now since the landscape has changed a bit since I submitted my prediction. I had a path in mind that now looks like it will be flat out wrong by the time this game ends.  

[HalFinneysBrain]

Sadly I missed this.  Going to post guesses anyway.

379, 181, 299.

[oda.krell]

Look what I found. Almost forgot about this one myself, despite being OP

The results are in (coming in the next post).

[oda.krell]

The price chart of the last 90 days (NB: images scaled, right-click & view to see them in full resolution):




The price results:

Feb 9 to May 9 2015, Bitfinex
(a) highest price: 303.96 USD
(b) lowest price during previous 90 days: 213.92
(c) value of 90 day VWMA on May 9: 250.65


Results compared to predictions, with ranks:




So, by total rank (i.e. sum of rank across questions), from lowest to highest, the Top 3 is:

1 - RyNinDaCleM (rank sum 8)

2 - sgbett (rank sum 11)

3 - inca (rank sum 14)


(and on the last place, with a rank sum of twenty-fucking-five, oda.krell. What a tosser :D)


The winner of this round of the prediction game is RyNinDaCleM, who will receive the original award pledged by myself (0.5 BTC), plus the sum of confirmation transactions that came in to this address, for a total award of 0.639056 BTC.


Please let me know which address you want the money to go to, ryn!


Stay tuned for the next round of this game. I'm planning to get it started next week, with slightly different rules (mainly: price submissions that are invisible during the submission period), but with the same time horizon (quarter of a year) most likely. Any input/suggestions from you on this is very welcome (different ranking algorithm, for example?).

Finally, it's hard to miss the irony, eh? Price is almost exactly where it was at the beginning of the prediction period (despite there being some swings up and down in the meantime). Take that, both bulls and bears :P

[RyNinDaCleM]

Wow, awesome!
I thought about this thread about two weeks ago and was going to bump it and still forgot. Anyway, you can just send it to my forum addy 1RyNzTkafPptkwiMCm5KTjG9bcLRMZBsU.
Thanks for a good game oda!

[600watt]

congrats to the winner.


oda... you´ll get there someday, just keep tryin.. 


that was fun, thx op

[oda.krell]

Wow, awesome! :)
I thought about this thread about two weeks ago and was going to bump it and still forgot. Anyway, you can just send it to my forum addy 1RyNzTkafPptkwiMCm5KTjG9bcLRMZBsU.
Thanks for a good game oda!

Sent :)

[RyNinDaCleM]

Wow, awesome!
I thought about this thread about two weeks ago and was going to bump it and still forgot. Anyway, you can just send it to my forum addy 1RyNzTkafPptkwiMCm5KTjG9bcLRMZBsU.
Thanks for a good game oda!

Sent

Received, Thanks!

[Wary]

Sent

Received, Thanks!

It seems this bitcoin things does work. It probably can be used to buy things in internet, just like PayPal or e-gold.

[Miz4r]

Congrats RyN, well deserved win. Looking forward to the next contest.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Sent

Received, Thanks!

It seems this bitcoin things does work. It probably can be used to buy things in internet, just like PayPal or e-gold.

Just when I wondered if there was only a way to send money globally for next to nothing and receive it instantly...  

Congrats RyN, well deserved win. Looking forward to the next contest.

Thank you sir!

[sgbett]

if only i had been just a bit more bearish

nice one RyN

looking forward to the next round. looking even more forward to finally emerging from this period of malaise and hopelessness. its all proceeding textbookly!