[ANN] A Raffle that pays back 125% - Now even **** MORE **** fair

[mmxca]

This is NOT a First-In / First-Out Game like a "Typical" Ponzi

Bitcoin Raffle
70% chance of Winning 125% Payout
Low Buyin: 0.0025BTC per Share

http://www.theponzigames.com/

This is NOT a First-In / First-Out Game like a "Typical" Ponzi

My associates and I set out to develop a game that could be played with the fervor of a "Ponzi Game" game
without all the negative connotation that goes along with that.  The biggest problem with a Ponzi Game is that
there is no way to prove that the game operator is not inserting themselves at the beginning of the game to
defraud those who play after him.  No matter how much he promises, even swears on a stack of bibles, the
stigma is still there.  


What we came up with is rather ingenious if I do say so myself.  Rather than the first person buying in and then
funds from subsequent players paying them back, we wait until a finite number of shares (in this case 100) have
been purchased.  Then we dissolve 30 of those shares (the losers) and pay 125% of the per share buyin back to
remaining players.  The 30 shares that we dissolve are in no particular order and in fact are selected at "random"
by generation of a random token at the beginning end of each game.  See the "FAQ section" for more information on this.


We also didn't want the cost to play - and ultimately the risk involved - to be so high that those who are still
gun-shy about playing our game to be driven away.  The buyin is a low 0.0025BTC (a mere $0.54) so give it a try.


I encourage everyone who has EVER played a "Ponzi Game" to at least take a look at the Rules and FAQ section of
the site.  Think about all the things that make you uncomfortable about playing ANY of the other "Ponzi Games" out
there and considering playing our game.

http://www.theponzigames.com/

This is NOT a First-In / First-Out Game like a "Typical" Ponzi

If there is positive reception, the following improvements are planned in the coming days:

• Ajax driven stats screen updates
• Ability to "recharge" you bank with another deposit from the same BTC address
• Ability to create an account to see your history (win/loss ratio, etc)
• Option to limit how many shares per round you purchase when making large deposits

• 2015-02-04:
  
  • Updated favicon
  • Ajax driver home screen updates
  • New rounds are now announced via twitter
• 2015-02-02:
  
  • Modified method for selecting Random Seed
  • Temporarily removed search from history
  • Added Online Help (chat based)

The "raffle" at www.theponzigames.com has been closed down due to lack of interest.

All active tickets at the time of shutdown were paid back.

https://blockchain.info/tx/3045c36145a52590e9531b5e0ece7999e7f99dbbd04ff5ec50133742efee1ba5

At the time of closure, there were 54 (of 100) tickets active.

Code:

+---------+--------+------------------------------------------------------------------+---------------------+------------------------------------+
| game_id | square | txid                                                             | timestamp           | coin_address                       |
+---------+--------+------------------------------------------------------------------+---------------------+------------------------------------+
|       4 |      1 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |      2 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |      3 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |      4 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |      5 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |      6 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |      7 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |      8 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |      9 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |     10 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |     11 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |     12 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |     13 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |     14 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |     15 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
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|       4 |     17 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |     18 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
|       4 |     19 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
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|       4 |     23 | 611c28d3606ef3d3ad390e12946c932e0e8452e7efb7d9bf62bc1037a5bf17b7 | 2015-02-04 17:11:19 | 1LAs458LSenAUHwDgeYhHwMCgD91sVKAEC |
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+---------+--------+------------------------------------------------------------------+---------------------+------------------------------------+

Stay tuned for the the pheonix to RISE AGAIN!

[stevetrac]

i'm in for a go

[shorena]

Since I linked this as a slight improvement over regular ponzis in another thread Im going to address some problems I see.

#1 you (the operator) picks the seed, thus you know in advance which spots are winning and can thus play without risk
#2 you (the operator) do not publish a hash of the seed to make sure you do not change the seed at a later date
#3 the players could analyse the possible outcomes via random.org API for the last X of the 25 digit seed. X here depends on your API key as random.org limits API requests unless you pay for them. Paying for them just to get an advantage in the game might not be worth it, but someone might have access to such a key from other sources (university, job, etc)

[caga]

Looks like now they are changing the name of a ponzi to raffle.

[H1N1]

Same scam, different name.

[mmxca]

Since I linked this as a slight improvement over regular ponzis in another thread Im going to address some problems I see.

#1 you (the operator) picks the seed, thus you know in advance which spots are winning and can thus play without risk
#2 you (the operator) do not publish a hash of the seed to make sure you do not change the seed at a later date
#3 the players could analyse the possible outcomes via random.org API for the last X of the 25 digit seed. X here depends on your API key as random.org limits API requests unless you pay for them. Paying for them just to get an advantage in the game might not be worth it, but someone might have access to such a key from other sources (university, job, etc)

Thank you for the feedback.  I will do my best to respond to each of your points.

1. Technically, I don't PICK the seed, the seed is generated as 2 GUIDs and then the first 25 characters of that become the seed.  And technically, I do know the seed (because it is stored in the database until the game ends), but the only other thing we could have done is pick it at the end - the argument would then be "well you just find a seed that let's you win".

2. By publishing the seed we are offering transparency to ensure we don't "change the seed at a later date" and doing so slowly ensures noone has an undesirable advantage.

3. We release the digits in sequence, one letter at a time, after each 4 shares purchased, so everyone has the same advantage if they are that determined.  However, the real advantage would be if we release the sequence all at once.  Then everyone would know which shares will be dissolved.  This way, there are many possible combinations.  Furthermore if you get to where there is only one letter left, 96 shares will have already been purchased.  All that would protect you from is the last 4 shares.  And at that point, the odds would be astronomical that you would find the right X with the last 4 shares.

I don't know of another way to be more transparent and/or fair.  I am open to any suggestions.

[mmxca]

Same scam, different name.

Actually if you look at instead of just blindly disparaging it, you would see it is:

Same Name - Different Game

But thank you for your pointless comment.  If you care to discuss how you feel that this is any less fair than say a faucett, or a dice or card game, I would be happy to engage in a conversation with you.

[Quickseller]

Even though you release a portion of the seed after portions of the shares are sold, there are multiple possible seeds that you could be using, especially early on.

You still know what the seed is when the game starts which allows you to play the winning tickets while allowing others to play the loosing tickets.

As you mention above regardless of if you pick the seed prior to the game starting or after the game ends then you will have an advantage. It is therefore impossible for your setup to be fair.

[mmxca]

Even though you release a portion of the seed after portions of the shares are sold, there are multiple possible seeds that you could be using, especially early on.

You still know what the seed is when the game starts which allows you to play the winning tickets while allowing others to play the loosing tickets.

As you mention above regardless of if you pick the seed prior to the game starting or after the game ends then you will have an advantage. It is therefore impossible for your setup to be fair.

You're premise is flawed.  It is therefore impossible for you to BELIEVE my setup could fair.  That is your perception (to which you are entitled), but just because you say it does not make it so.

I know that my intent is honorable, and noone is going to change that, especially you.       

[Quickseller]

Even though you release a portion of the seed after portions of the shares are sold, there are multiple possible seeds that you could be using, especially early on.

You still know what the seed is when the game starts which allows you to play the winning tickets while allowing others to play the loosing tickets.

As you mention above regardless of if you pick the seed prior to the game starting or after the game ends then you will have an advantage. It is therefore impossible for your setup to be fair.

You're premise is flawed.  It is therefore impossible for you to BELIEVE my setup could fair.  That is your perception (to which you are entitled), but just because you say it does not make it so.

I know that my intent is honorable, and noone is going to change that, especially you.       

You are incorrect. If your setup is fair then it would be easy for you to mathematically prove it. If your setup was fair then you should prove how it is fair, you have not done so therefore it is not fair.

If your intent was honorable then you would not have created a brand new account to start your scam.

[mmxca]

You are incorrect. If your setup is fair then it would be easy for you to mathematically prove it. If your setup was fair then you should prove how it is fair, you have not done so therefore it is not fair.

If your intent was honorable then you would not have created a brand new account to start your scam.

What are you smokin' dude.  This is the only account I have ever had and the only account I will ever had.

You tell me.  How would you mathematically prove that such a website was "fair".  It's a game a chance... Do you understand the meaning of CHANCE?

[Quickseller]

You are incorrect. If your setup is fair then it would be easy for you to mathematically prove it. If your setup was fair then you should prove how it is fair, you have not done so therefore it is not fair.

If your intent was honorable then you would not have created a brand new account to start your scam.

What are you smokin' dude.  This is the only account I have ever had and the only account I will ever had.

You tell me.  How would you mathematically prove that such a website was "fair".  It's a game a chance... Do you understand the meaning of CHANCE?

I am sorry, but I cannot believe that you created your account on Dec 30 of last year and then 18 days later tried to start a ponzi and then when it failed you created a "legit" gambling site two weeks later. I am fairly confident this is not your first bitcointalk account.

It is not possible to make a gambling game fair with your current setup. The only way to be fair is to have two seeds, one seed that you pick and one that the gambler has the opportunity to choose, and then add in a nonce that starts at some number, but increases by a constant each additional bet.

[mmxca]

I am sorry, but I cannot believe that you created your account on Dec 30 of last year and then 18 days later tried to start a ponzi and then when it failed you created a "legit" gambling site two weeks later. I am fairly confident this is not your first bitcointalk account.

It is not possible to make a gambling game fair with your current setup. The only way to be fair is to have two seeds, one seed that you pick and one that the gambler has the opportunity to choose, and then add in a nonce that starts at some number, but increases by a constant each additional bet.

Let's set aside the fact that you can't believe a professional developer could do what you describe, since that's exactly what happened because you are making assumptions with no basis in fact.

With regards to the seed, it doesn't matter where it comes from.  What if the seed were a mathematical calculation (perhaps an MD5 Hash of the 100 transaction ids of the shares)?   

[Quickseller]

I am sorry, but I cannot believe that you created your account on Dec 30 of last year and then 18 days later tried to start a ponzi and then when it failed you created a "legit" gambling site two weeks later. I am fairly confident this is not your first bitcointalk account.

It is not possible to make a gambling game fair with your current setup. The only way to be fair is to have two seeds, one seed that you pick and one that the gambler has the opportunity to choose, and then add in a nonce that starts at some number, but increases by a constant each additional bet.

Let's set aside the fact that you can't believe a professional developer could do what you describe, since that's exactly what happened because you are making assumptions with no basis in fact.

Statically speaking no it has not. There are many professional developers on here, however very few have joined in even the last year.

With regards to the seed, it doesn't matter where it comes from.  What if the seed were a mathematical calculation (perhaps an MD5 Hash of the 100 transaction ids of the shares)?   

It does not matter where the seed comes from. As long as you pick it, the seed will not be fair. Without having a separate seed that the player has the opportunity to choose, it will be impossible for your game to be fair, period.

[mmxca]

I am sorry, but I cannot believe that you created your account on Dec 30 of last year and then 18 days later tried to start a ponzi and then when it failed you created a "legit" gambling site two weeks later. I am fairly confident this is not your first bitcointalk account.

It is not possible to make a gambling game fair with your current setup. The only way to be fair is to have two seeds, one seed that you pick and one that the gambler has the opportunity to choose, and then add in a nonce that starts at some number, but increases by a constant each additional bet.

Let's set aside the fact that you can't believe a professional developer could do what you describe, since that's exactly what happened because you are making assumptions with no basis in fact.

Statically speaking no it has not. There are many professional developers on here, however very few have joined in even the last year.

With regards to the seed, it doesn't matter where it comes from.  What if the seed were a mathematical calculation (perhaps an MD5 Hash of the 100 transaction ids of the shares)?   

It does not matter where the seed comes from. As long as you pick it, the seed will not be fair. Without having a separate seed that the player has the opportunity to choose, it will be impossible for your game to be fair, period.

So - obviously you can't possibly have a civil conversation.  I am finished engaging you.  Have a wonderful life.

[Quickseller]

I am sorry, but I cannot believe that you created your account on Dec 30 of last year and then 18 days later tried to start a ponzi and then when it failed you created a "legit" gambling site two weeks later. I am fairly confident this is not your first bitcointalk account.

It is not possible to make a gambling game fair with your current setup. The only way to be fair is to have two seeds, one seed that you pick and one that the gambler has the opportunity to choose, and then add in a nonce that starts at some number, but increases by a constant each additional bet.

Let's set aside the fact that you can't believe a professional developer could do what you describe, since that's exactly what happened because you are making assumptions with no basis in fact.

Statically speaking no it has not. There are many professional developers on here, however very few have joined in even the last year.

With regards to the seed, it doesn't matter where it comes from.  What if the seed were a mathematical calculation (perhaps an MD5 Hash of the 100 transaction ids of the shares)?   

It does not matter where the seed comes from. As long as you pick it, the seed will not be fair. Without having a separate seed that the player has the opportunity to choose, it will be impossible for your game to be fair, period.

So - obviously you can't possibly have a civil conversation.  I am finished engaging you.  Have a wonderful life.

I am not sure how you are claiming my comments to not be civil. I would say that it would be more likely that my points are valid and that you are unable to respond to them, but are not willing to admit defeat.

[shorena]

Since I linked this as a slight improvement over regular ponzis in another thread Im going to address some problems I see.

#1 you (the operator) picks the seed, thus you know in advance which spots are winning and can thus play without risk
#2 you (the operator) do not publish a hash of the seed to make sure you do not change the seed at a later date
#3 the players could analyse the possible outcomes via random.org API for the last X of the 25 digit seed. X here depends on your API key as random.org limits API requests unless you pay for them. Paying for them just to get an advantage in the game might not be worth it, but someone might have access to such a key from other sources (university, job, etc)

Thank you for the feedback.  I will do my best to respond to each of your points.

1. Technically, I don't PICK the seed, the seed is generated as 2 GUIDs and then the first 25 characters of that become the seed.  And technically, I do know the seed (because it is stored in the database until the game ends), but the only other thing we could have done is pick it at the end - the argument would then be "well you just find a seed that let's you win".

Use something you can not predict. E.g. the hash of the bitcoin block that confirms the last transaction. Something that is very hard to predict for those participating as well as for you.

2. By publishing the seed we are offering transparency to ensure we don't "change the seed at a later date" and doing so slowly ensures noone has an undesirable advantage.

My point was that you are publishing only parts of the seed and thus can influence it until the end. If you would publish a hash in advance along with it, the players could confirm (by hashing the seed) that you did not change it.

3. We release the digits in sequence, one letter at a time, after each 4 shares purchased, so everyone has the same advantage if they are that determined.  However, the real advantage would be if we release the sequence all at once.  Then everyone would know which shares will be dissolved.  This way, there are many possible combinations.  Furthermore if you get to where there is only one letter left, 96 shares will have already been purchased.  All that would protect you from is the last 4 shares.  And at that point, the odds would be astronomical that you would find the right X with the last 4 shares.

With my suggestion under #2 it would be possible to be certain, but thats besides the point. A UUID has only 16 symbols, thus I can easily check by hand if the last digit gives me an advantage. If all 16 possibilties would result in a win for e.g. slot 99 and a high chance for 98 and 97 I could invest at a higher chance of success than those that do not analyse the seed. Thus it gives an advantage and your "well anyone can do it" will certainly not cut it for those that did not think about this in advance. You are marketing it as a fair game, thus it should be solely based on chance and not partly on skill.

I don't know of another way to be more transparent and/or fair.  I am open to any suggestions.

As I suggested, use something random that can not be predicted as a seed. There is loads of data available and you could even combine several sources. If you insist to generate the seed yourself at least publish a hash of it instead of slowly revealing it.

-snip-
I know that my intent is honorable, and noone is going to change that, especially you.       

Your premise is flawed. Your intend or your words do not matter here, only what you can prove. You should not take any of this as an attack on you as a person. Frankly many here do not care about the person behind the nickname, we do care about your actions though. Saying "Im a trustworthy person" reminds me of joffrey. Trustworthiness can not be decalred.



The last part makes me think that you are using an alt, which makes you look more shady. This might very well be my paranoid though.

-snip-
With regards to the seed, it doesn't matter where it comes from.

It does. The seed decides who wins and who loses, thus it is of prime importance where it originated.

What if the seed were a mathematical calculation (perhaps an MD5 Hash of the 100 transaction ids of the shares)?   

Maybe not MD5 since its broken. The advantage is very slim though and would only work for the last person that creates a transaction. That person would also have to know how to use transaction malleability[1] as an advantage here.
As long as its clear how to repeat the process and that the data used could not have been known in advance it should be fine though.

[1] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transaction_Malleability

[Snail2]

So ponzis with decreased chances to make profit are now called raffle . This is something good to know.

[mmxca]

With regards to the seed, it doesn't matter where it comes from.

I misspoke... I should have said "It doesn't matter to ME where it comes from."

Your premise is flawed. Your intend or your words do not matter here, only what you can prove. You should not take any of this as an attack on you as a person. Frankly many here do not care about the person behind the nickname, we do care about your actions though. Saying "Im a trustworthy person" reminds me of joffrey. Trustworthiness can not be decalred.

First of all - let me just say "Kudos" on the entirely appropriate GOT reference.  The only comment I would have is that the converse is not necessary true, because he calls me a thief does not necessarily mean I am a thief.  But I take your point.

Use something you can not predict. E.g. the hash of the bitcoin block that confirms the last transaction. Something that is very hard to predict for those participating as well as for you.

If I am understanding your point, the seed should be something that is not known until the last possible moment.  In my mind, any aspect(s) of transaction that "closes out" a round is the most appropriate source of that information.  In the case of an example transaction bef0e1c852ed343ea97f7df1f975427fb5e678e06d095b349aee45bf5f78213e, the block-height for that transaction is 341163.  Examining that block reveals that the hash of that block height 341163 is 00000000000000001263e943cd24eece8657811c1613912fa63f8c103e6f59da.  If we use that as the seed, the list of dissolved shares would be obtained from this URL:

https://www.random.org/integer-sets/?sets=1&num=30&min=1&max=100&seqnos=on&commas=on&sort=on&order=index&format=plain&rnd=id.00000000000000001263e943cd24eece8657811c1613912fa63f8c103e6f59da

Meaning the losing shares would be: 2, 5, 10, 13, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 28, 30, 34, 35, 37, 38, 44, 49, 50, 62, 63, 65, 68, 75, 78, 84, 93, 96, 97

Would that make it more palatable?

[mmxca]

So ponzis with decreased chances to make profit are now called raffle . This is something good to know.

Ponzi = Invest Early/Higher Chance of return (i.e. First in / First Out)

Raffle = Random Draw

If you look at the example above, you would see that investor 2 & 5 would be among the losers.  That doesn't sound like first in first out to me?