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Author Topic: Bitcoin went out of exponential trend into linear downtrend [TA inside]  (Read 3593 times)
homo homini lupus (OP)
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February 02, 2015, 06:26:04 PM
Last edit: February 02, 2015, 06:46:15 PM by homo homini lupus
 #1


Below the longterm trendline since 2012 on logarithmic view. This line has been broken with the panic in January



Now we can see the price moved from exponential line to a linear one.
Below you see the same graph with exactly the same lines once in logarithmic view and once in linear view.


logarithmic view:


the log-view straight line was accurate before the January crash
After that point the linear line became the accurate one


linear view:




conclusion: Bitcoin fell off its projection for megalomania worlddomination and is now a shitcoin with delusions of grandeur trading linear instead of exponential. Its fundamentals and basic assummptions have been shown to be wrong. The hype is over. Bitcoin today is as good as any other coin with such bad fundamentals. After this it appears to be wildly overvalued.

I would predict a continuated trading along the linear decending line. Bottom? Not so much ...
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February 02, 2015, 06:29:49 PM
 #2

bitcoin scamcoin is going back to where it comes from, sub $0.1 soon!
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February 02, 2015, 06:30:06 PM
 #3

There is no everlasting bear market,hope you're right and we get out of the downtrend.
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February 02, 2015, 06:30:53 PM
 #4

Enough of this slow downward trend... Getting very depressing. I'd rather have it jump around to 100 to 1000 then stay at ~250 and slowly fall down. So boring!

homo homini lupus (OP)
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February 02, 2015, 06:31:28 PM
 #5

There is no everlasting bear market,hope you're right and we get out of the downtrend.

Well, i can show you several alts that have seen an 'everlasting bearmarket'. In crypto such a thing is certainly possible.
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February 02, 2015, 06:32:18 PM
 #6

Just because there's a line there doesn't mean it can't go around it. I'm pretty sure the bubble to $1000 broke some trend lines. Once Wall Street got involved, a lot of the past trend lines for Bitcoin don't mean shit. It's a new ball game.
homo homini lupus (OP)
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February 02, 2015, 06:36:24 PM
Last edit: February 02, 2015, 06:51:45 PM by homo homini lupus
 #7

Just because there's a line there doesn't mean it can't go around it. I'm pretty sure the bubble to $1000 broke some trend lines. Once Wall Street got involved, a lot of the past trend lines for Bitcoin don't mean shit. It's a new ball game.

wallstreet is pipedreams. You notice correctly: it was a bubble
Question: when in history did speculative bubbles repeat a second time on the same thing after collapsing? Never.

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February 02, 2015, 06:48:18 PM
 #8

O rly?
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February 02, 2015, 06:54:09 PM
 #9

Good luck with your short though I suspect you are a bit late old chap.

Posting a chart after the price has dropped 80% (as of today, though of course 87% at the recent capitulation low) and predicting the price will follow the same trajectory downwards is great. Let me know how that works out for you.

I look forward to seeing you posting from the same account and with some updated charts in six months! Smiley
homo homini lupus (OP)
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February 02, 2015, 06:58:01 PM
 #10

Good luck with your short though I suspect you are a bit late old chap.

Posting a chart after the price has dropped 80% (as of today, though of course 87% at the recent capitulation low) and predicting the price will follow the same trajectory downwards is great. Let me know how that works out for you.

I look forward to seeing you posting from the same account and with some updated charts in six months! Smiley

the words of a true die-hard baghodler   Roll Eyes
My short from 300$ are still open - so far i have no regret to have them opened.
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February 02, 2015, 07:06:54 PM
 #11

I stopped reading at "TA"...
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February 02, 2015, 07:13:22 PM
 #12

why do you ignore the data before the bull ride to 1000?

I agree with the linear thing, if it up(you will agree with me if you use all time data)

homo homini lupus (OP)
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February 02, 2015, 07:17:22 PM
 #13

why do you ignore the data before the bull ride to 1000?

I agree with the linear thing, if it up(you will agree with me if you use all time data)



can you post a graphic for what you are talking about?
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February 02, 2015, 07:54:55 PM
 #14

Nice arbitrary lines u have there.
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February 02, 2015, 08:00:50 PM
 #15

Just because there's a line there doesn't mean it can't go around it. I'm pretty sure the bubble to $1000 broke some trend lines. Once Wall Street got involved, a lot of the past trend lines for Bitcoin don't mean shit. It's a new ball game.

wallstreet is pipedreams. You notice correctly: it was a bubble
Question: when in history did speculative bubbles repeat a second time on the same thing after collapsing? Never.



Actually it's happened for a 2nd and 3rd time already with BTC.  Did you know that this is not the largest crash in BTC's history?  Actually, it's not even close (by a factor of ~4).
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February 02, 2015, 08:08:32 PM
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PoS
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February 02, 2015, 08:11:46 PM
 #17

op's TA has got a minor flaw, bitcoin is around a little longer than 2012
ParabellumLite
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February 02, 2015, 08:14:22 PM
 #18

op's TA has got a minor flaw, bitcoin is around a little longer than 2012

The logarithmic chart this guy posted has been circulating here for at least a year already, if not much longer. These charts always start around 2012.
You're welcome.
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February 02, 2015, 08:23:38 PM
 #19

Those charts just prove that TA is a waste of time with btc.
homo homini lupus (OP)
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February 02, 2015, 08:46:16 PM
 #20

op's TA has got a minor flaw, bitcoin is around a little longer than 2012

probably didn't find anymore history. Where can i get tradehistory from before 2012? Oh, i see at MtGox ... oh shit, now it looks even worse!

Nice arbitrary lines u have there.

show me a line that is not 'arbitrary', dumbo
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