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Author Topic: A Bitcoin Savings and Trust exit plan, incentivizing the destruction of Bitcoin  (Read 4683 times)
Peter Todd
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July 21, 2012, 06:00:46 PM
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Lets suppose the speculation is true, and the Pirate has in fact been selling large amounts of coin. Ostensibly this is to stop bubbles, but another possibility is he's gradually converting a large amount of his bitcoin holdings into fiat. One he's done that he then has the incentive to crash the bitcoin market as his Bitcoin Savings and Trust obligations are denominated in Bitcoins. For instance, suppose he's a FinCEN insider and known's that repressive anti-bitcoin measures are about to be introduced. After the crash he simply has to buy back the coins at much-reduced rates, and he gets to keep the fiat left over as his profits.

tl;dr - The Pirate has a big incentive to destroy Bitcoin itself.

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Spekulatius
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July 21, 2012, 06:13:31 PM
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besides the FinCen insider tohubohu, wha's the period of time pirate has to notice his lenders before he can seize the BS&T operation to stay in legal boundaries?
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July 21, 2012, 06:17:34 PM
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destroying btc != crashing the market

all it would do is making gpu mining unprofitable again.

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July 21, 2012, 07:05:52 PM
 #4

The market price is, over the long term and once the short term effect of speculation is factored out, equal to the success or failure of Bitcoin. This is a direct result of the intrinsic design of Bitcoin.

As for pirate he is in a position where he can easily have a multi million USD short position on Bitcoin and consequently is in an ideal position to profit very well from a complete collapse of Bitcoin. No need for "insider" information from FinCen or anywhere else. The flip side is that a sudden very sharp increase in the market price of Bitcoin could also hurt him substantially. As for the market activity and comments that are attributed to him, this is to me indicative of a bear under a lot of pressure and possibly hurting in a bull market.

The one thing to keep in mind here is that a wounded bear is the most dangerous kind of bear.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 21, 2012, 07:13:20 PM
 #5

he already fights for survival:

- lowering the dividends about 30%
- participating for the first time in market manipulation (on the 17th of July, according to his statement on IRC)
- increased forum activity, spreading (mis)information, trying to foster trust in his endeavour
...
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July 21, 2012, 07:23:00 PM
 #6

I don't think it is a matter of if he is not profiting from this endeavor, at this point. It seems to be that the concern is whether or not that this will have a lasting affect on the bitcoin economy.

I find it kind of ironic that people are going to complain about the price being held down, while people still complain about early adopter benefits.

Pirate is essentially giving everyone (including investors, clients, and potential bitcoin buyers) a chance to buy cheap coins.
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July 21, 2012, 07:27:57 PM
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hahaha

NO

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July 21, 2012, 08:08:46 PM
 #8

I don't think it is a matter of if he is not profiting from this endeavor, at this point. It seems to be that the concern is whether or not that this will have a lasting affect on the bitcoin economy.

I find it kind of ironic that people are going to complain about the price being held down, while people still complain about early adopter benefits.

Pirate is essentially giving everyone (including investors, clients, and potential bitcoin buyers) a chance to buy cheap coins.

Here, I think it wasn't clear enough.  Wink

This has indeed been the case for the last 7 months; however over the long term this is completely unsustainable. Something will have to give. The worst thing a pirate detractor can do is dismiss him as a ponzi or a money launderer, because this essentially limits the threat to his lenders and no one else.

The reason I am sounding a warning here is because I actually trust he is telling the truth.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 21, 2012, 08:18:07 PM
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Lets suppose the speculation is true, and the Pirate has in fact been selling large amounts of coin. Ostensibly this is to stop bubbles, but another possibility is he's gradually converting a large amount of his bitcoin holdings into fiat. One he's done that he then has the incentive to crash the bitcoin market as his Bitcoin Savings and Trust obligations are denominated in Bitcoins. For instance, suppose he's a FinCEN insider and known's that repressive anti-bitcoin measures are about to be introduced. After the crash he simply has to buy back the coins at much-reduced rates, and he gets to keep the fiat left over as his profits.

tl;dr - The Pirate has a big incentive to destroy Bitcoin itself.


Why would he have that incentive?

It seems that he does have an incentive to liquidate before getting the hell out of Dodge, because popping the confidence of his army of believers will probably drive the price down short term. But the incentive to cash out =! incentive to "destroy Bitcoin itself."
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July 21, 2012, 08:31:39 PM
 #10

Lets suppose the speculation is true, and the Pirate has in fact been selling large amounts of coin. Ostensibly this is to stop bubbles, but another possibility is he's gradually converting a large amount of his bitcoin holdings into fiat. One he's done that he then has the incentive to crash the bitcoin market as his Bitcoin Savings and Trust obligations are denominated in Bitcoins. For instance, suppose he's a FinCEN insider and known's that repressive anti-bitcoin measures are about to be introduced. After the crash he simply has to buy back the coins at much-reduced rates, and he gets to keep the fiat left over as his profits.

tl;dr - The Pirate has a big incentive to destroy Bitcoin itself.


Why would he have that incentive?

It seems that he does have an incentive to liquidate before getting the hell out of Dodge, because popping the confidence of his army of believers will probably drive the price down short term. But the incentive to cash out =! incentive to "destroy Bitcoin itself."

Because he is short the market. Suppose you had 2.5 million USD and a debt denominated in Zimbabwean dollars at an interest rate of 7% a week that initially was valued at 2.5 million USD. Would you close out the position. No. You let the position ride and then pick up 500 trillion Zimbabwean dollars for say 50 USD on Ebay and use it to pay the principle and interest on your Zimbabwean dollar debt. The profit is the difference between what you sold your Zimbabwean dollars short initially 2.5 million USD and what you paid to buy back your position 50 USD.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 21, 2012, 08:32:18 PM
 #11

Lets suppose the speculation is true, and the Pirate has in fact been selling large amounts of coin. Ostensibly this is to stop bubbles, but another possibility is he's gradually converting a large amount of his bitcoin holdings into fiat. One he's done that he then has the incentive to crash the bitcoin market as his Bitcoin Savings and Trust obligations are denominated in Bitcoins. For instance, suppose he's a FinCEN insider and known's that repressive anti-bitcoin measures are about to be introduced. After the crash he simply has to buy back the coins at much-reduced rates, and he gets to keep the fiat left over as his profits.

tl;dr - The Pirate has a big incentive to destroy Bitcoin itself.


Why would he have that incentive?

It seems that he does have an incentive to liquidate before getting the hell out of Dodge, because popping the confidence of his army of believers will probably drive the price down short term. But the incentive to cash out =! incentive to "destroy Bitcoin itself."

There is obviously some incentive to hurt bitcoin when you owe hundreds of thousands of them. Any real hurt certainly will lower the value of what you owe. But if he had some inside info or ability why wait to freaking long? I don't think he has any intention like that whether he is legit or not.


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July 21, 2012, 08:49:15 PM
 #12

You can edit the post if you want. And even delete the separate post.

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boonies4u
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July 21, 2012, 08:56:28 PM
 #13

I don't think it is a matter of if he is not profiting from this endeavor, at this point. It seems to be that the concern is whether or not that this will have a lasting affect on the bitcoin economy.

I find it kind of ironic that people are going to complain about the price being held down, while people still complain about early adopter benefits.

Pirate is essentially giving everyone (including investors, clients, and potential bitcoin buyers) a chance to buy cheap coins.

Here, I think it wasn't clear enough.  Wink

This has indeed been the case for the last 7 months; however over the long term this is completely unsustainable. Something will have to give. The worst thing a pirate detractor can do is dismiss him as a ponzi or a money launderer, because this essentially limits the threat to his lenders and no one else.

The reason I am sounding a warning here is because I actually trust he is telling the truth.

If Pirate is using his mass of coins to hold the market down, that might be hurting the sellers and miners now, but if anything it's a reason to not sell now anyways. A good chance to pick up coins, invest them, or hold them.

If you don't want Pirate to manipulate the market, don't loan him the bitcoins.

I suppose the thing to keep in mine is that Pirate could decide to stop at anytime and either run with the coins or force any/every account to withdraw.

If there are these powerful clients of Pirate's that are willing to buy bitcoins at these elevated, but stable prices, it speaks out that bitcoin really is worth more than it is currently selling at.

Hope this isn't hurting the miners too bad.
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July 21, 2012, 09:34:12 PM
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If Pirate is using his mass of coins to hold the market down, that might be hurting the sellers and miners now, but if anything it's a reason to not sell now anyways. A good chance to pick up coins, invest them, or hold them.

Absolutely. If one does this then one gets to keep some of the "pirate plunder" as a bonus.

If you don't want Pirate to manipulate the market, don't loan him the bitcoins.

True, but Pirate also did make a very valid point. Reckless over leveraged bulls can and will get burnt here. A buy and hold strategy on the other hand will deter this kind of market manipulation and provide some "pirate plunder" to keep as a bonus.

I suppose the thing to keep in mine is that Pirate could decide to stop at anytime and either run with the coins or force any/every account to withdraw.

This is a huge difference here. If he forces withdrawals because the returns simply are no longer there in a bull market, then of course that is a very positive outcome. Lowering the interest rates was also a very positive first step. One other hand in the case of a Pirate default the Bitcoin community will get a taste of what a "too big to fail" bank failure is like without Ben Bernanke to print more money in order to bail said bank out.

If there are these powerful clients of Pirate's that are willing to buy bitcoins at these elevated, but stable prices, it speaks out that bitcoin really is worth more than it is currently selling at.

Hope this isn't hurting the miners too bad.

It depends on what the the miners do. if they mine and hold and don't sell even to pay for power or equipment costs then they will not loose in the long run. If they mine and sell then they are getting hurt.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 21, 2012, 10:20:49 PM
 #15

As for the market activity and comments that are attributed to him, this is to me indicative of a bear under a lot of pressure and possibly hurting in a bull market.

The one thing to keep in mind here is that a wounded bear is the most dangerous kind of bear.


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July 21, 2012, 11:03:06 PM
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If I hear about pirate’s scam once again, I’ll puke.

There is plenty of wrong kind of people attracted to Bitcoin for a quick profit – nothing wrong with them being relieved of their money by scammers. That what they are in for, anyway – they come with a 500g tube of Vaseline each. They’ll say they were ‘desperate’ afterwards and most would insist they had actually enjoyed it or ‘came out on top’. Regardless,

Why does it matter to most of us if some loud plonker is disposing of his stolen money and bumholing a bunch of greedy idiots? There had been countless like him before and will be more, and there are plenty of idiots where they came from -  i do not want to think that Bitcoin is about those.

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July 21, 2012, 11:31:02 PM
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[Why would he have that incentive?

It seems that he does have an incentive to liquidate before getting the hell out of Dodge, because popping the confidence of his army of believers will probably drive the price down short term. But the incentive to cash out =! incentive to "destroy Bitcoin itself."

Because he is short the market. Suppose you had 2.5 million USD and a debt denominated in Zimbabwean dollars at an interest rate of 7% a week that initially was valued at 2.5 million USD. Would you close out the position. No. You let the position ride and then pick up 500 trillion Zimbabwean dollars for say 50 USD on Ebay and use it to pay the principle and interest on your Zimbabwean dollar debt. The profit is the difference between what you sold your Zimbabwean dollars short initially 2.5 million USD and what you paid to buy back your position 50 USD.


Er...  Let's say that this person was anonymous and could not be reached by any court.  Would his stronger incentive be to (1) hold down the value of the Zimbabwean dollar futility until he becomes insolvent, or (2) walk away with the money, in whatever currency he prefers?

This is not a hard question.  You appear to be making the fundamental mistake of believing it's not a scam.

Please think for a second about how senseless this is.  In your view, you think he needs to get more income from whatever his "investment" is, turn it into bitcoins, and pay the "investors."  So yes, in that situation he would want the exchange rate to be low.  But if he had a stack of coins to turn into dollars, doesn't that mean that he didn't actually put them into his "investment" until now?  I mean, you're supposedly loaning him money for some great investment deal--doesn't that mean he needs to actually invest the bitcoins?  If he's got thousands of coins sitting around to manipulate the prices AND more income from his investment, why does he need to pay you guys anything?  He would be self-financing at that point.

The only conclusion is that the investment is mythological.
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July 21, 2012, 11:34:39 PM
 #18

Long after BS&T is gone, Bitcoin will still be here, irrespective of price movements.

If you are sure the economy is tied to one person, even if they have a corner or squeeze (or any other market power you like), then you are missing the point.
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July 21, 2012, 11:36:51 PM
 #19

Pirate, pirate, pirate, pirate... omg. Who cares? Every sucker who invests in his trust should expect losing every penny at any moment. Investors are basically gambling against time, will they have time to accumulate enough from the interest before it all breaks down?

Pirate is insignificant PERIOD. I hope he sells bitcoins, that means cheaper bitcoins for everyone else. He has much less power than people think though. The market has other large players besides him and if the market decides we go up, his rumoured "dumps" will mean jack shit.

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July 21, 2012, 11:53:01 PM
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Pirate, pirate, pirate, pirate... omg. Who cares? Every sucker who invests in his trust should expect losing every penny at any moment. Investors are basically gambling against time, will they have time to accumulate enough from the interest before it all breaks down?

Pirate is insignificant PERIOD. I hope he sells bitcoins, that means cheaper bitcoins for everyone else. He has much less power than people think though. The market has other large players besides him and if the market decides we go up, his rumoured "dumps" will mean jack shit.
+1

that should be added to every pirate thread right at after the OP.

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