Best <insert name>coins to speculate on

[Spekulatius]

Hi B-People,

I have recently checked the current stats of all the alternative coins there are (and possibly will be, i.e. freicoin,..) and wonder whether we will see some notable changes in the near future, when new developments and projects take shape to maybe bolster their monetary value. With Zhoutong's new project coming up (although I dont understand it) I feel some development is bound to happen to namecoin, while solidcoin apparently died from negligence, litecoin seems to dominate the altcoin crowd right now (for whatever reason). When the first ASICs hit the mining crowd of bitcoin, supposedly in October, all the GPU miners will probably switch to the next most tempting option, which as it looks like rigth now could be litecoin. With its current hash rate of around 0.2 GH/s it would soon boast to 10 or 100x that, preceding a similar effect that ASICs will have on the bitcoin network (just hinting here to watch that development closely the more October draws near).

Some useful sites that provide altcoin charts:

http://marketscry.info/?s=nmcbtc&t=5000
https://btc-e.com/
https://vircurex.com/
http://namecoin.gw.gd/
http://allchains.info/graphs.html

What do you guys think will provide the most promising speculation opportunities in this arena?
What has the best potential and when will we see the first major movements?

DISCUSS!!


P.S.: Please be advised, that I have no technical understanding whatsoever concerning programming or what lies behind the xyzcoin protocols. So pls correct me where wrong in the statements above and explain technical stuff like you would explain it to a 5 year old. thx

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[finkleshnorts]

I think it was more than negligence that killed solidcoin. Haha. If I were to play around with alts, i would use litecoin. But, I really don't see litecoin being significant long term (sorry litecoiners). Namecoin is interesting, but I haven't quite wrapped my mind around it yet. Not sure if there is much trading going on there either.

[bitcoiners]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

[finkleshnorts]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

Interesting. I think I'll buy a few.

[flipperfish]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

Interesting. I think I'll buy a few.

Does this mean litecoins value will increase? I can't imagine how hash-power should affect value?

[Spekulatius]

No it doesnt. It only means, that the bottom price for 1 LTC will be whatever it costs to mine that 1 LTC value equivalent (speak USD or BTC). Increasing the hashrate by manyfold, while the difficulty has not picked up yet also means very many LTC will be mined in that relatively short period of time, raising the total supply for that period. A price drop is much more likely then a price surge, because those extra LTC can be sold shortly thereafter. They may be held nonetheless and sold later, when prices stabilize or go up for any unrelated reason.

[finkleshnorts]

No it doesnt. It only means, that the bottom price for 1 LTC will be whatever it costs to mine that 1 LTC value equivalent (speak USD or BTC). Increasing the hashrate by manyfold, while the difficulty has not picked up yet also means very many LTC will be mined in that relatively short period of time, raising the total supply for that period. A price drop is much more likely then a price surge, because those extra LTC can be sold shortly thereafter. They may be held nonetheless and sold later, when prices stabilize or go up for any unrelated reason.

Interesting. I think I won't buy a few.

[ArticMine]

Bull:
Of all the alt-coins the one that I hold is Namecoin, mainly because I get it as a by product of Bitcoin mining. One scenario that could see the price of Namecoin rising sharply is the MPAA/RIAA getting SOPA 2.0 passed in the United States, as this will be seen in the market place as increasing the risk of a domain seizure in the ICANN network and generate a lot more interest in Namecoin.

Bear:
As for selling short the only one I would possibly consider is Solidcoin / Microcash.

[ElectricMucus]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

Interesting. I think I'll buy a few.

Does this mean litecoins value will increase? I can't imagine how hash-power should affect value?

Yes an no.

Very short time (The inital rush plus one half difficulty adjustment on average) this will create more inflation and so more selling pressure. But mid term it is a bullish sign since the more miners are pushed into it the less LTC one gets and because every miner is a potential user of the currency it will make it more valuable. In the long run however it will depend on fundamentals like services and goods offered for it.


The most interesting thing about litecoin is the strong opposition focused on it. Not on it specifically but on the general principle of alternate blockchains.
(Insert appropriate Gandhi quote here.)

[adamstgBit]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

Interesting. I think I'll buy a few.

Does this mean litecoins value will increase? I can't imagine how hash-power should affect value?

i think litecoin is CPU mining only.

some high end cpu is best for litcoin

i thought i read that somewhere

[Tittiez]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

Interesting. I think I'll buy a few.

Does this mean litecoins value will increase? I can't imagine how hash-power should affect value?

i think litecoin is CPU mining only.

some high end cpu is best for litcoin

i thought i read that somewhere

It used to be cpu only, but a gpu miner was released (reaper) a few months back. Now there is cgminer for it now too.

[tatsuchan]

Everyone seems to forget that Litecoin is a fork of Bitcoin.  All the troubles Bitcoin had paving a way is laid out before Litecoin.  Services that were built, hacked, tested, re-tested, hacked again, and are now stronger then ever can all easily (well a lot easier then from scratch) integrate Litecoin.  People that were won over by Bitcoin will quickly understand what Litecoin is.  

With ASIC's around the corner, and Bitcoin rising in value, investing and buying with Bitcoin doesn't make as much sense to the casual user.  Why would I spend 100 Bitcoins for a service if those 100 might be worth much more in a year?  Many people have this mentality.  Not saying it is realistic, or healthy, but that is a speculation among users.  Litecoin will more then likely become the "usable" currency were as Bitcoin will probably end up being an investment stock.  Just like you'd horde gold and spend your dollars.  

It is realistic to point out that most Litecoin users are Bitcoin users as well.  Litecoin will help Bitcoin's value as it was built with the intentions of being in a symbiotic relationship with Bitcoin.  I couldn't see Litecoin lasting a month if Bitcoin went under.  With the ASIC's I can already see many miners (including myself) getting alienated out of the mining game.  Can you guess how I'll be getting my Bitcoins now?  Litecoin exchange.  Again, supporting the Bitcoin with Litecoin as a currency.  I'd say Litecoin becoming the 1/4 value of Bitcoin isn't that farfetched as long as things go perfect.  Realistically, I could still see Litecoin making some cash, especially for the early investors.

As far as the other coins.  Anything previous like tenebrix or solidcoin has failed.  It took some failures in order to launch a good alt coin.  Solidcoin never understood the purpose of a p2p currency.  It seemed like Microsoft points or something that represents money without any real community value or capital backing it.  Too shady for me to get invested when I found out about it 8 months ago....and thank God I did stay away.  Namecoin is one of those ideas that are great, but fail.  I REALLY want to see a different domain structure, but the internet is commercialized now.  I'm skeptical that this will work for most commercial sites.  Most people don't want a wikileaks.  They want a buy-my-shit-cheap.com website.  It has to attract visitors, has to answer to local laws, has to keep track of sales and user info in order to sell you more cheap shit, and most importantly, it is often set up my some cookie cutter program for some middle-aged guy trying to make a dollar on that newfangled internet thing.  How are they going to know what namecoin and .bit is when most of us barely understand it?  The only reason anyone cares about namecoin at this point is because at it's heart it is a good idea, but really, you get it free while bitcoin mining. They remind me of the free small french fry tokens you get at McDonalds when they do the Monopoly game.  You're like "Neat, free fries" and they lay around your wallet until they expire.

[Spekulatius]

 Services that were built, hacked, tested, re-tested, hacked again, ...

You mean Bitcoinica?

[tatsuchan]

 Services that were built, hacked, tested, re-tested, hacked again, ...

You mean Bitcoinica?

LOL. Some services might be deemed untrustworthy

[Spekulatius]

Litecoin will more then likely become the "usable" currency were as Bitcoin will probably end up being an investment stock.  Just like you'd horde gold and spend your dollars.  

You mean a relationship like the one between freicoin and bitcoin is intended?
Dont you think if gold was more easily to handle physically and easily divisible like bitcoin is, people would trade it for goods just like dollars? I as a merchant would even prefer that over fiat. People would probably rather hold gold in their purses than USD. The only problem is, that it is too heavy to carry around and so difficult to pay for goods of minor value with it.

[tatsuchan]

Litecoin will more then likely become the "usable" currency were as Bitcoin will probably end up being an investment stock.  Just like you'd horde gold and spend your dollars.  

You mean a relationship like the one between freicoin and bitcoin is intended?
Dont you think if gold was more easily to handle physically and easily divisible like bitcoin is, people would trade it for goods just like dollars? I as a merchant would even prefer that over fiat. People would probably rather hold gold in their purses than USD. The only problem is, that it is too heavy to carry around and so difficult to pay for goods of minor value with it.

All currencies have their problems.  I think the big thing with gold is it's fluctuating dollar point and the way the government treats it.  Bitcoin will certainly see issues like this.  I find it interesting and hopefully profitable.

[smoothie]

Litecoin will more then likely become the "usable" currency were as Bitcoin will probably end up being an investment stock.  Just like you'd horde gold and spend your dollars.  

You mean a relationship like the one between freicoin and bitcoin is intended?
Dont you think if gold was more easily to handle physically and easily divisible like bitcoin is, people would trade it for goods just like dollars? I as a merchant would even prefer that over fiat. People would probably rather hold gold in their purses than USD. The only problem is, that it is too heavy to carry around and so difficult to pay for goods of minor value with it.

All currencies have their problems.  I think the big thing with gold is it's fluctuating dollar point and the way the government treats it.  Bitcoin will certainly see issues like this.  I find it interesting and hopefully profitable.

As long as bitcoin is never regulated...which I can't ever see happening, bitcoin will never have a price surpression. The free market will give it value.

[ElectricMucus]

Litecoin will more then likely become the "usable" currency were as Bitcoin will probably end up being an investment stock.  Just like you'd horde gold and spend your dollars.  

You mean a relationship like the one between freicoin and bitcoin is intended?
Dont you think if gold was more easily to handle physically and easily divisible like bitcoin is, people would trade it for goods just like dollars? I as a merchant would even prefer that over fiat. People would probably rather hold gold in their purses than USD. The only problem is, that it is too heavy to carry around and so difficult to pay for goods of minor value with it.

All currencies have their problems.  I think the big thing with gold is it's fluctuating dollar point and the way the government treats it.  Bitcoin will certainly see issues like this.  I find it interesting and hopefully profitable.

As long as bitcoin is never regulated...which I can't ever see happening, bitcoin will never have a price surpression. The free market will give it value.

Don't underestimate those types. Something on the level of stuxnet released in order to grab all possible btc not in secure storage and boom they can do whatever they want with the price. That is assuming stuxnet wasn't a hoax in the first place in order to spark some fear.

[disclaimer201]

No it doesnt. It only means, that the bottom price for 1 LTC will be whatever it costs to mine that 1 LTC value equivalent (speak USD or BTC). Increasing the hashrate by manyfold, while the difficulty has not picked up yet also means very many LTC will be mined in that relatively short period of time, raising the total supply for that period. A price drop is much more likely then a price surge, because those extra LTC can be sold shortly thereafter. They may be held nonetheless and sold later, when prices stabilize or go up for any unrelated reason.

You still don't seem to understand how difficulty adjustments work, do you? There will always be the same amount of Litecoins mined at any given time. Just as it is with BTC.

[phelix]

What do you guys think will provide the most promising speculation opportunities in this arena?
What has the best potential and when will we see the first major movements?

I'd say namecoin of course because it has the most potential and is really different from bitcoin with additional features.

with the next namecoin based project the price might jump.

edit: also it is the only alternacoin that is being merge mined, making it potentially safer than the others - were all bugs fixed

[Spekulatius]

No it doesnt. It only means, that the bottom price for 1 LTC will be whatever it costs to mine that 1 LTC value equivalent (speak USD or BTC). Increasing the hashrate by manyfold, while the difficulty has not picked up yet also means very many LTC will be mined in that relatively short period of time, raising the total supply for that period. A price drop is much more likely then a price surge, because those extra LTC can be sold shortly thereafter. They may be held nonetheless and sold later, when prices stabilize or go up for any unrelated reason.

You still don't seem to understand how difficulty adjustments work, do you? There will always be the same amount of Litecoins mined at any given time. Just as it is with BTC.

Sorry buddy, but you are wrong. The block generation rate does not stay the same over time. It averages 10 minutes (for bitcoin) or 2.5 (for litecoin), but differs from that mean nearly always. When more blocks are mined in the same timeframe, more coins are produced. The difficulty is readjusted every 2016 blocks (in both bitcoin and litecoin). If it takes more then 2 weeks in bitcoin or 3.5 days in case of litecoin to mine those 2016 blocks the difficulty is lowered, if it takes less it is increased.
Now imagine a big addition of hashpower to the network: The remaining blocks of that cycle till the 2016th will be mined much faster then before the addition of extra hashpower, because difficulty stays the same and the network is more powerful now (smarter to solve a block, you could say). Only with the 2017th block mined, difficulty is readjusted towards the desired average of 2 weeks (BTC) or 3.5 days (LTC) for 2016 blocks to be found.

Links:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty
http://www.coinconnect.org/pages/view/31636/comparison-between-bitcoin-and-litecoin

I may have overlooked something, but I am quite sure that is how it works, please correct me if Im wrong.
Cheers

[Spekulatius]

What do you guys think will provide the most promising speculation opportunities in this arena?
What has the best potential and when will we see the first major movements?

I'd say namecoin of course because it has the most potential and is really different from bitcoin with additional features.

It does. But tatsuchan mentioned before, that it faces some serious problems:

Namecoin is one of those ideas that are great, but fail.  I REALLY want to see a different domain structure, but the internet is commercialized now.  I'm skeptical that this will work for most commercial sites.  Most people don't want a wikileaks.  They want a buy-my-shit-cheap.com website.  It has to attract visitors, has to answer to local laws, has to keep track of sales and user info in order to sell you more cheap shit, and most importantly, it is often set up my some cookie cutter program for some middle-aged guy trying to make a dollar on that newfangled internet thing.  How are they going to know what namecoin and .bit is when most of us barely understand it?  The only reason anyone cares about namecoin at this point is because at it's heart it is a good idea, but really, you get it free while bitcoin mining.

I really dont understand yet the scope of namecoins feautures and mechanics that seperate it from bitcoin. May someone with a better understanding please give a bit of an explanation?

@ tatsuchan: Could you please explain a little bit more, why namecoin may fail in the longrun and how big those problems you see may be(come)? Why is namecoin in your oppinion inferior to the established domain system and cannot its "impossible-to-close-down" nature make up for any monetary expenses?

with the next namecoin based project the price might jump.

What could such projects be? Any in the pipeline? nameterrific.com?

[phelix]

What do you guys think will provide the most promising speculation opportunities in this arena?
What has the best potential and when will we see the first major movements?

I'd say namecoin of course because it has the most potential and is really different from bitcoin with additional features.

It does. But tatsuchan mentioned before, that it faces some serious problems:

Namecoin is one of those ideas that are great, but fail.  I REALLY want to see a different domain structure, but the internet is commercialized now.  I'm skeptical that this will work for most commercial sites.  Most people don't want a wikileaks.  They want a buy-my-shit-cheap.com website.  It has to attract visitors, has to answer to local laws, has to keep track of sales and user info in order to sell you more cheap shit, and most importantly, it is often set up my some cookie cutter program for some middle-aged guy trying to make a dollar on that newfangled internet thing.  How are they going to know what namecoin and .bit is when most of us barely understand it?  The only reason anyone cares about namecoin at this point is because at it's heart it is a good idea, but really, you get it free while bitcoin mining.

I really dont understand yet the scope of namecoins feautures and mechanics that seperate it from bitcoin. May someone with a better understanding please give a bit of an explanation?

@ tatsuchan: Could you please explain a little bit more, why namecoin may fail in the longrun and how big those problems you see may be(come)? Why is namecoin in your oppinion inferior to the established domain system and cannot its "impossible-to-close-down" nature make up for any monetary expenses?

with the next namecoin based project the price might jump.

What could such projects be? Any in the pipeline? nameterrific.com?

I would love to start one had I the time.

check out potential use cases, for example here: http://bitcoinx.com/namecoin/n 

[Spekulatius]

And how is namecoin better in those use cases then existing solutions?

[phelix]

And how is namecoin better in those use cases then existing solutions?

it is decentralized and free from censorship.

how is bitcoin better?

[BlackBison]

yes but bitcoin solves problems in the money system that MUST be addressed sooner or late.

namecoin is a clever idea but it appears to be solving a problem that does not exist now and probably will never exist.

big difference.

[tatsuchan]

What do you guys think will provide the most promising speculation opportunities in this arena?
What has the best potential and when will we see the first major movements?

I'd say namecoin of course because it has the most potential and is really different from bitcoin with additional features.

It does. But tatsuchan mentioned before, that it faces some serious problems:

Namecoin is one of those ideas that are great, but fail.  I REALLY want to see a different domain structure, but the internet is commercialized now.  I'm skeptical that this will work for most commercial sites.  Most people don't want a wikileaks.  They want a buy-my-shit-cheap.com website.  It has to attract visitors, has to answer to local laws, has to keep track of sales and user info in order to sell you more cheap shit, and most importantly, it is often set up my some cookie cutter program for some middle-aged guy trying to make a dollar on that newfangled internet thing.  How are they going to know what namecoin and .bit is when most of us barely understand it?  The only reason anyone cares about namecoin at this point is because at it's heart it is a good idea, but really, you get it free while bitcoin mining.

I really dont understand yet the scope of namecoins feautures and mechanics that seperate it from bitcoin. May someone with a better understanding please give a bit of an explanation?

@ tatsuchan: Could you please explain a little bit more, why namecoin may fail in the longrun and how big those problems you see may be(come)? Why is namecoin in your oppinion inferior to the established domain system and cannot its "impossible-to-close-down" nature make up for any monetary expenses?

with the next namecoin based project the price might jump.

What could such projects be? Any in the pipeline? nameterrific.com?

I'm not a developer, I'm a graphic artist.  I understand some technologies are more open/free/possibly better.  I also recognize that the web is a popularity contest.  It takes a long time, lots of trust, TONS of luck, and deep investing pockets to shove crap down people's throats.  There is a law of seven in the marketing world.  People usually don't care about your product/business until they see it in seven different places.  Then it is "trusted" and of interest.

Maybe namecoin might get to this point.  Realistically, smart phones and mothersites (Facebook/youtube) will hold all the cards for future web development.  Where did you even hear about bitcoin in the first place?  MySpace, 4chan, digg, redd.it?

[Spekulatius]

Where did you even hear about bitcoin in the first place?  MySpace, 4chan, digg, redd.it?

I think it was 1 year ago on aljazeera.com where I read about the incredible rally of June 2011.

[tatsuchan]

Where did you even hear about bitcoin in the first place?  MySpace, 4chan, digg, redd.it?

I think it was 1 year ago on aljazeera.com where I read about the incredible rally of June 2011.

Imagine that, right? You didn't hear about it from the inner circle of cryptography enthusiasts?  I could give a shit about prime numbers and the greatest algorithm.....whatever.  Will it make money? How hard is it to use?  How much investment/time will it take.  What are the risks.  

With Bitcoin you buy a coin, it looks like it is going up in value.  It is a stock.  Has short term and long term market appeal. Makes sense.

Namecoin is a technology with it's success depending on all sorts of development factors.  It is GREAT for what it is, but it is going to have to answer those questions above before it is commonplace and usable. As a stock it is doing terrible, and doesn't make sense.

I don't have all the answers, and this is a SPECULATION thread, but that is my 2 cents on the topic.  

[Tittiez]

BBQCOIN

+1

[VelvetLeaf]

- Early adopter coins (EA Coins)
No one will really complain even if it's not successful because everyone in this forum already mined 1,000,000 of them in day 1 when difficulty is 0.

[Spekulatius]

>>GAY<<-BBQCOIN 

+1

STOP IT! NO BBQ SPOOK IN MY THREAD!!!

BUY ★☆★SPEKULATIUS COINS☆★☆ FOR THE LOVE OF ASS SLAPS AND NUT KICKS, GODDAMIT!!

[smoothie]

Where did you even hear about bitcoin in the first place?  MySpace, 4chan, digg, redd.it?

I think it was 1 year ago on aljazeera.com where I read about the incredible stupid rally of June 2011.

People were stupid buying bitcoins back then when it hit the 20's and then 31.

[Spekulatius]

Now lets carry on, shall we?

Maybe the most pressing question at this time:

Is buying LTC right now a wise move or financial suicide?

[ElectricMucus]

Now lets carry on, shall we?

Maybe the most pressing question at this time:

Is buying LTC right now a wise move or financial suicide?

Well there are 4 possibilities:

1. The attack goes through and the investment was wasted
2. The attack fails independently of other actions and it is a tremendous bargain
3. Significant LTC are bought during the 5 day period driving up price and Hashrate making the attack fail being a epic bargain.
4. The attack was a hoax and it is a slight bargain

[phelix]

bitcoin is a clever idea but it appears to be solving a problem that does not exist now and probably will never exist.

big difference.

And how is bitcoin better in those use cases then existing solutions?

you guys sound so 2010 


there are a couple of niches for namecoin and I think sooner or later it (or something very similar) will take off from one.

[Spekulatius]

there are a couple of niches for namecoin and I think sooner or later it (or something very similar) will take off from one.

What niches are you thinking of? Is there really no way existing solutions could fill those niches?

[Spekulatius]

Now lets carry on, shall we?

Maybe the most pressing question at this time:

Is buying LTC right now a wise move or financial suicide?

Well there are 4 possibilities:

1. The attack goes through and the investment was wasted
2. The attack fails independently of other actions and it is a tremendous bargain
3. Significant LTC are bought during the 5 day period driving up price and Hashrate making the attack fail being a epic bargain.
4. The attack was a hoax and it is a slight bargain

What do you think are the chances for the attack to be successful vs. it fails?

What are indicators in advance to see whether option A or B will become reality?

[Spekulatius]

Wow, so many topics to discuss today   :

What do you guys think will Zhoutong's entanglement and new incriminating evidence in the lastest bitcoinica hack mean for namecoin (because of nameteriffic.com, the next BIG project in the namecoinverse)?

[tatsuchan]

bitcoin is a clever idea but it appears to be solving a problem that does not exist now and probably will never exist.

big difference.

And how is bitcoin better in those use cases then existing solutions?

you guys sound so 2010 


there are a couple of niches for namecoin and I think sooner or later it (or something very similar) will take off from one.

I'd like to know too.  I don't follow namecoin, but haven't seen any reason to either.  I'm here in the forum more often then is mentally healthy and haven't seen any reason yet.  Anything can happen with these alt currencies, so who knows.

[phelix]

there are a couple of niches for namecoin and I think sooner or later it (or something very similar) will take off from one.

What niches are you thinking of? Is there really no way existing solutions could fill those niches?

I assume you are aware of the possible use cases we are pondering... http://bitcoinx.com/namecoin/n/

namecoin offers a bunch of solutions, I have a feeling there must be an application for it.

[Spekulatius]

there are a couple of niches for namecoin and I think sooner or later it (or something very similar) will take off from one.

What niches are you thinking of? Is there really no way existing solutions could fill those niches?

I assume you are aware of the possible use cases we are pondering... http://bitcoinx.com/namecoin/n/

namecoin offers a bunch of solutions, I have a feeling there must be an application for it.

I dont know, non of the above listed use cases seem unique or more suited for namecoin solutions over existing approaches, except for the DNS: domain_name => domain_zone_configuration maybe.  Another interesting use case not listed here is hedging against the price of USD/BTC --> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94461.msg1061383#msg1061383