Best <insert name>coins to speculate on

[Spekulatius]

Hi B-People,

I have recently checked the current stats of all the alternative coins there are (and possibly will be, i.e. freicoin,..) and wonder whether we will see some notable changes in the near future, when new developments and projects take shape to maybe bolster their monetary value. With Zhoutong's new project coming up (although I dont understand it) I feel some development is bound to happen to namecoin, while solidcoin apparently died from negligence, litecoin seems to dominate the altcoin crowd right now (for whatever reason). When the first ASICs hit the mining crowd of bitcoin, supposedly in October, all the GPU miners will probably switch to the next most tempting option, which as it looks like rigth now could be litecoin. With its current hash rate of around 0.2 GH/s it would soon boast to 10 or 100x that, preceding a similar effect that ASICs will have on the bitcoin network (just hinting here to watch that development closely the more October draws near).

Some useful sites that provide altcoin charts:

http://marketscry.info/?s=nmcbtc&t=5000
https://btc-e.com/
https://vircurex.com/
http://namecoin.gw.gd/
http://allchains.info/graphs.html

What do you guys think will provide the most promising speculation opportunities in this arena?
What has the best potential and when will we see the first major movements?

DISCUSS!!


P.S.: Please be advised, that I have no technical understanding whatsoever concerning programming or what lies behind the xyzcoin protocols. So pls correct me where wrong in the statements above and explain technical stuff like you would explain it to a 5 year old. thx

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[finkleshnorts]

I think it was more than negligence that killed solidcoin. Haha. If I were to play around with alts, i would use litecoin. But, I really don't see litecoin being significant long term (sorry litecoiners). Namecoin is interesting, but I haven't quite wrapped my mind around it yet. Not sure if there is much trading going on there either.

[bitcoiners]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

[finkleshnorts]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

Interesting. I think I'll buy a few.

[flipperfish]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

Interesting. I think I'll buy a few.

Does this mean litecoins value will increase? I can't imagine how hash-power should affect value?

[Spekulatius]

No it doesnt. It only means, that the bottom price for 1 LTC will be whatever it costs to mine that 1 LTC value equivalent (speak USD or BTC). Increasing the hashrate by manyfold, while the difficulty has not picked up yet also means very many LTC will be mined in that relatively short period of time, raising the total supply for that period. A price drop is much more likely then a price surge, because those extra LTC can be sold shortly thereafter. They may be held nonetheless and sold later, when prices stabilize or go up for any unrelated reason.

[finkleshnorts]

No it doesnt. It only means, that the bottom price for 1 LTC will be whatever it costs to mine that 1 LTC value equivalent (speak USD or BTC). Increasing the hashrate by manyfold, while the difficulty has not picked up yet also means very many LTC will be mined in that relatively short period of time, raising the total supply for that period. A price drop is much more likely then a price surge, because those extra LTC can be sold shortly thereafter. They may be held nonetheless and sold later, when prices stabilize or go up for any unrelated reason.

Interesting. I think I won't buy a few.

[ArticMine]

Bull:
Of all the alt-coins the one that I hold is Namecoin, mainly because I get it as a by product of Bitcoin mining. One scenario that could see the price of Namecoin rising sharply is the MPAA/RIAA getting SOPA 2.0 passed in the United States, as this will be seen in the market place as increasing the risk of a domain seizure in the ICANN network and generate a lot more interest in Namecoin.

Bear:
As for selling short the only one I would possibly consider is Solidcoin / Microcash.

[ElectricMucus]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

Interesting. I think I'll buy a few.

Does this mean litecoins value will increase? I can't imagine how hash-power should affect value?

Yes an no.

Very short time (The inital rush plus one half difficulty adjustment on average) this will create more inflation and so more selling pressure. But mid term it is a bullish sign since the more miners are pushed into it the less LTC one gets and because every miner is a potential user of the currency it will make it more valuable. In the long run however it will depend on fundamentals like services and goods offered for it.


The most interesting thing about litecoin is the strong opposition focused on it. Not on it specifically but on the general principle of alternate blockchains.
(Insert appropriate Gandhi quote here.)

[adamstgBit]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

Interesting. I think I'll buy a few.

Does this mean litecoins value will increase? I can't imagine how hash-power should affect value?

i think litecoin is CPU mining only.

some high end cpu is best for litcoin

i thought i read that somewhere

[Tittiez]

In my opinion once asic hit, all gpus will be targeted on litecoin.  Just a hunch.

Interesting. I think I'll buy a few.

Does this mean litecoins value will increase? I can't imagine how hash-power should affect value?

i think litecoin is CPU mining only.

some high end cpu is best for litcoin

i thought i read that somewhere

It used to be cpu only, but a gpu miner was released (reaper) a few months back. Now there is cgminer for it now too.

[tatsuchan]

Everyone seems to forget that Litecoin is a fork of Bitcoin.  All the troubles Bitcoin had paving a way is laid out before Litecoin.  Services that were built, hacked, tested, re-tested, hacked again, and are now stronger then ever can all easily (well a lot easier then from scratch) integrate Litecoin.  People that were won over by Bitcoin will quickly understand what Litecoin is.  

With ASIC's around the corner, and Bitcoin rising in value, investing and buying with Bitcoin doesn't make as much sense to the casual user.  Why would I spend 100 Bitcoins for a service if those 100 might be worth much more in a year?  Many people have this mentality.  Not saying it is realistic, or healthy, but that is a speculation among users.  Litecoin will more then likely become the "usable" currency were as Bitcoin will probably end up being an investment stock.  Just like you'd horde gold and spend your dollars.  

It is realistic to point out that most Litecoin users are Bitcoin users as well.  Litecoin will help Bitcoin's value as it was built with the intentions of being in a symbiotic relationship with Bitcoin.  I couldn't see Litecoin lasting a month if Bitcoin went under.  With the ASIC's I can already see many miners (including myself) getting alienated out of the mining game.  Can you guess how I'll be getting my Bitcoins now?  Litecoin exchange.  Again, supporting the Bitcoin with Litecoin as a currency.  I'd say Litecoin becoming the 1/4 value of Bitcoin isn't that farfetched as long as things go perfect.  Realistically, I could still see Litecoin making some cash, especially for the early investors.

As far as the other coins.  Anything previous like tenebrix or solidcoin has failed.  It took some failures in order to launch a good alt coin.  Solidcoin never understood the purpose of a p2p currency.  It seemed like Microsoft points or something that represents money without any real community value or capital backing it.  Too shady for me to get invested when I found out about it 8 months ago....and thank God I did stay away.  Namecoin is one of those ideas that are great, but fail.  I REALLY want to see a different domain structure, but the internet is commercialized now.  I'm skeptical that this will work for most commercial sites.  Most people don't want a wikileaks.  They want a buy-my-shit-cheap.com website.  It has to attract visitors, has to answer to local laws, has to keep track of sales and user info in order to sell you more cheap shit, and most importantly, it is often set up my some cookie cutter program for some middle-aged guy trying to make a dollar on that newfangled internet thing.  How are they going to know what namecoin and .bit is when most of us barely understand it?  The only reason anyone cares about namecoin at this point is because at it's heart it is a good idea, but really, you get it free while bitcoin mining. They remind me of the free small french fry tokens you get at McDonalds when they do the Monopoly game.  You're like "Neat, free fries" and they lay around your wallet until they expire.

[Spekulatius]

 Services that were built, hacked, tested, re-tested, hacked again, ...

You mean Bitcoinica?

[tatsuchan]

 Services that were built, hacked, tested, re-tested, hacked again, ...

You mean Bitcoinica?

LOL. Some services might be deemed untrustworthy

[Spekulatius]

Litecoin will more then likely become the "usable" currency were as Bitcoin will probably end up being an investment stock.  Just like you'd horde gold and spend your dollars.  

You mean a relationship like the one between freicoin and bitcoin is intended?
Dont you think if gold was more easily to handle physically and easily divisible like bitcoin is, people would trade it for goods just like dollars? I as a merchant would even prefer that over fiat. People would probably rather hold gold in their purses than USD. The only problem is, that it is too heavy to carry around and so difficult to pay for goods of minor value with it.

[tatsuchan]

Litecoin will more then likely become the "usable" currency were as Bitcoin will probably end up being an investment stock.  Just like you'd horde gold and spend your dollars.  

You mean a relationship like the one between freicoin and bitcoin is intended?
Dont you think if gold was more easily to handle physically and easily divisible like bitcoin is, people would trade it for goods just like dollars? I as a merchant would even prefer that over fiat. People would probably rather hold gold in their purses than USD. The only problem is, that it is too heavy to carry around and so difficult to pay for goods of minor value with it.

All currencies have their problems.  I think the big thing with gold is it's fluctuating dollar point and the way the government treats it.  Bitcoin will certainly see issues like this.  I find it interesting and hopefully profitable.

[smoothie]

Litecoin will more then likely become the "usable" currency were as Bitcoin will probably end up being an investment stock.  Just like you'd horde gold and spend your dollars.  

You mean a relationship like the one between freicoin and bitcoin is intended?
Dont you think if gold was more easily to handle physically and easily divisible like bitcoin is, people would trade it for goods just like dollars? I as a merchant would even prefer that over fiat. People would probably rather hold gold in their purses than USD. The only problem is, that it is too heavy to carry around and so difficult to pay for goods of minor value with it.

All currencies have their problems.  I think the big thing with gold is it's fluctuating dollar point and the way the government treats it.  Bitcoin will certainly see issues like this.  I find it interesting and hopefully profitable.

As long as bitcoin is never regulated...which I can't ever see happening, bitcoin will never have a price surpression. The free market will give it value.

[ElectricMucus]

Litecoin will more then likely become the "usable" currency were as Bitcoin will probably end up being an investment stock.  Just like you'd horde gold and spend your dollars.  

You mean a relationship like the one between freicoin and bitcoin is intended?
Dont you think if gold was more easily to handle physically and easily divisible like bitcoin is, people would trade it for goods just like dollars? I as a merchant would even prefer that over fiat. People would probably rather hold gold in their purses than USD. The only problem is, that it is too heavy to carry around and so difficult to pay for goods of minor value with it.

All currencies have their problems.  I think the big thing with gold is it's fluctuating dollar point and the way the government treats it.  Bitcoin will certainly see issues like this.  I find it interesting and hopefully profitable.

As long as bitcoin is never regulated...which I can't ever see happening, bitcoin will never have a price surpression. The free market will give it value.

Don't underestimate those types. Something on the level of stuxnet released in order to grab all possible btc not in secure storage and boom they can do whatever they want with the price. That is assuming stuxnet wasn't a hoax in the first place in order to spark some fear.

[disclaimer201]

No it doesnt. It only means, that the bottom price for 1 LTC will be whatever it costs to mine that 1 LTC value equivalent (speak USD or BTC). Increasing the hashrate by manyfold, while the difficulty has not picked up yet also means very many LTC will be mined in that relatively short period of time, raising the total supply for that period. A price drop is much more likely then a price surge, because those extra LTC can be sold shortly thereafter. They may be held nonetheless and sold later, when prices stabilize or go up for any unrelated reason.

You still don't seem to understand how difficulty adjustments work, do you? There will always be the same amount of Litecoins mined at any given time. Just as it is with BTC.

[phelix]

What do you guys think will provide the most promising speculation opportunities in this arena?
What has the best potential and when will we see the first major movements?

I'd say namecoin of course because it has the most potential and is really different from bitcoin with additional features.

with the next namecoin based project the price might jump.

edit: also it is the only alternacoin that is being merge mined, making it potentially safer than the others - were all bugs fixed