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Author Topic: I have made a 25% return this week trading *against* the pirate  (Read 11661 times)
miscreanity
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August 02, 2012, 07:18:57 AM
 #121

No. Silver is the currency in this example. In hyperinflation the relative value of the currency will fall drastically. That is what happened with sliver in 1980. As to why Pirate is a bear, my conclusion here is based mostly on Pirate's own threads and comments and some of the comments from his supporters. I then compare this with the market data and have reached my conclusions from the relationship between the pro Pirate comments and the market data.

Hyperinflation was averted for the currency (USD) in the period you're referring to. The Hunt brothers were forced to liquidate their holdings, so there was an excess of supply over a short time. It was also a known quantity, not unrestricted production at an exponential pace. Finally, I posed the hypothetical because silver was not an official currency in 1980. Without monetary demand, there wasn't enough industrial or investment demand for the quantity available.

I'm not sure how you've determined Bitcoin market data is bearish. There's been every effort at maintaining stability, especially in light of the $9+ spike a few weeks ago which was cut down before it became a bubble. Followed by a stable basing range and resumed gradual ascent offering no easy entry points, it looks exactly the opposite of a bear.

What posts led you to believe Pirate is bearish? Everything I've seen indicated that he thinks Bitcoin has great potential, with some risks that could cause it to fail. Why would anyone hold or invest in bitcoins if they expected them to decline, let alone accumulate large quantities and build several services based on the system? I could see the case for a pump & dump, but where's the pump - are we witnessing a slow, multi-year pump that'll dump when everyone is using Bitcoin?
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Shadow383
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August 02, 2012, 07:29:40 AM
 #122


In your example, price is 8.5.  He got paid 9.  Someone wants to sell a shit ton of bitcoins at current price.  Pirate makes $0.5/bitcoin.

What's the problem?
How about the fact that:

-He'd have to buy the coins back to have bitcoin to pay his investors, which would increase the price and eliminate some of that $0.5/BTC profit.

-Assuming he was able to buy back at $8.75 (unlikely, a 100000BTC buy order would move the market more than $0.25) then he'd have made a net profit of $0.25 per coin, or about 2.8%.

Lovely.
Now assuming those margins, he'd have to trade 1 million BTC per week, or about half the base of the entire currency every month, in order to just pay his interest. More if he actually wanted to take any profit for himself. I think I'm right in saying that's more than the entire volume at the various exchanges? Of course, trades on OTC are hard to quantify, but I have a very hard time thinking it's anything close to that...
notme
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August 02, 2012, 07:35:42 AM
 #123


In your example, price is 8.5.  He got paid 9.  Someone wants to sell a shit ton of bitcoins at current price.  Pirate makes $0.5/bitcoin.

What's the problem?
How about the fact that:

-He'd have to buy the coins back to have bitcoin to pay his investors, which would increase the price and eliminate some of that $0.5/BTC profit.

-Assuming he was able to buy back at $8.75 (unlikely, a 100000BTC buy order would move the market more than $0.25) then he'd have made a net profit of $0.25 per coin, or about 2.8%.

Lovely.
Now assuming those margins, he'd have to trade 1 million BTC per week, or about half the base of the entire currency every month, in order to just pay his interest. More if he actually wanted to take any profit for himself. I think I'm right in saying that's more than the entire volume at the various exchanges? Of course, trades on OTC are hard to quantify, but I have a very hard time thinking it's anything close to that...

Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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miscreanity
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August 02, 2012, 07:42:08 AM
 #124

How about the fact that:

-He'd have to buy the coins back to have bitcoin to pay his investors, which would increase the price and eliminate some of that $0.5/BTC profit.

-Assuming he was able to buy back at $8.75 (unlikely, a 100000BTC buy order would move the market more than $0.25) then he'd have made a net profit of $0.25 per coin, or about 2.8%.

Lovely.
Now assuming those margins, he'd have to trade 1 million BTC per week, or about half the base of the entire currency every month, in order to just pay his interest. More if he actually wanted to take any profit for himself. I think I'm right in saying that's more than the entire volume at the various exchanges? Of course, trades on OTC are hard to quantify, but I have a very hard time thinking it's anything close to that...

There is in excess of 200,000 BTC exchanged per day, so easily more than 1.4mm per week.

Large trades are not made all at once. To move billions of dollars, the orders are broken up and run in stages. The same applies here.

A spider plans ahead, and the fly stumbles in. You're the fly, Pirate's a spider. There are many flies and few spiders.
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August 02, 2012, 07:43:08 AM
 #125

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.

He's not "retarded". He is just going to default on his debt, and likely profit quite handsomely from stealing all the funds.

This is a mathematical certainty, and if you don't get it then you shouldn't really be doing any kind of wealth management. Because if you don't get it, it implies you don't understand the exponential function.
Shadow383
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August 02, 2012, 07:46:21 AM
 #126

Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...
Raoul Duke
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August 02, 2012, 07:56:23 AM
 #127

Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...

So, nobody will withdraw any money or get the interest paid? ALL Compounding MoronsTM?
Is that what you're saying, or am I misunderstanding you?

miscreanity
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August 02, 2012, 07:56:44 AM
 #128

This is a mathematical certainty, and if you don't get it then you shouldn't really be doing any kind of wealth management. Because if you don't get it, it implies you don't understand the exponential function.

You're thinking of this in terms of bitcoins:



We're thinking of this regarding rate of return:



Which results in this as the assets under management by Pirate:

notme
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August 02, 2012, 07:57:58 AM
 #129

Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...

His average interest rate is roughly 2/3rds of the top tier and he has lowered his rate for many members multiple times.

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.

He's not "retarded". He is just going to default on his debt, and likely profit quite handsomely from stealing all the funds.

This is a mathematical certainty, and if you don't get it then you shouldn't really be doing any kind of wealth management. Because if you don't get it, it implies you don't understand the exponential function.

Or I don't assume constant terms like you do.  Pirate can, has, and will change his terms as necessary to keep himself profitable.  If this becomes no longer possible, I believe he will return the funds and enjoy the large amounts of money he has already made.  Too many people know how to find him and he doesn't want to abandon everything he knows.  Also, people take profits.  In fact, everything he holds of mine currently is profit.  I've withdrawn more than I've deposited by now.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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boonies4u
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August 02, 2012, 08:49:29 AM
 #130

Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...

His average interest rate is roughly 2/3rds of the top tier and he has lowered his rate for many members multiple times.

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.

He's not "retarded". He is just going to default on his debt, and likely profit quite handsomely from stealing all the funds.

This is a mathematical certainty, and if you don't get it then you shouldn't really be doing any kind of wealth management. Because if you don't get it, it implies you don't understand the exponential function.

Or I don't assume constant terms like you do.  Pirate can, has, and will change his terms as necessary to keep himself profitable.  If this becomes no longer possible, I believe he will return the funds and enjoy the large amounts of money he has already made.  Too many people know how to find him and he doesn't want to abandon everything he knows.  Also, people take profits.  In fact, everything he holds of mine currently is profit.  I've withdrawn more than I've deposited by now.

To be honest, all this would make a lovely story. Man runs a big scheme to have as many bitcoins under his control as possible... When he can no longer keep it running he makes a post saying that he defaults, then destroys all the keys to his coins and any other form of access, and kills himself. I believe that if he only destroyed access to the coins, would this truly have a permanent effect on the bitcoin economy as a whole, the suicide would just be the icing on the cake.

I'm in no way suggesting that I would enjoy or benefit from this happening... I just have a dark and twisted mind. Please don't kill yourself Pirate. Oh and don't run away with everyone's money either.
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August 02, 2012, 08:50:29 AM
 #131

To be honest, all this would make a lovely story. Man runs a big scheme to have as many bitcoins under his control as possible... When he can no longer keep it running he makes a post saying that he defaults, then destroys all the keys to his coins and any other form of access, and kills himself. I believe that if he only destroyed access to the coins, would this truly have a permanent effect on the bitcoin economy as a whole, the suicide would just be the icing on the cake.

I'm in no way suggesting that I would enjoy or benefit from this happening... I just have a dark and twisted mind. Please don't kill yourself Pirate. Oh and don't run away with everyone's money either.

Reeses, is that you?

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
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boonies4u
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August 02, 2012, 10:30:20 AM
 #132

To be honest, all this would make a lovely story. Man runs a big scheme to have as many bitcoins under his control as possible... When he can no longer keep it running he makes a post saying that he defaults, then destroys all the keys to his coins and any other form of access, and kills himself. I believe that if he only destroyed access to the coins, would this truly have a permanent effect on the bitcoin economy as a whole, the suicide would just be the icing on the cake.

I'm in no way suggesting that I would enjoy or benefit from this happening... I just have a dark and twisted mind. Please don't kill yourself Pirate. Oh and don't run away with everyone's money either.

Reeses, is that you?

Afraid not.
Shadow383
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August 02, 2012, 02:05:45 PM
 #133

Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...

His average interest rate is roughly 2/3rds of the top tier and he has lowered his rate for many members multiple times.
Where do you get this from? There's a huge amount of cash tied up in "trust" accounts...
boonies4u
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August 02, 2012, 03:45:54 PM
 #134

To be honest, all this would make a lovely story. Man runs a big scheme to have as many bitcoins under his control as possible... When he can no longer keep it running he makes a post saying that he defaults, then destroys all the keys to his coins and any other form of access, and kills himself. I believe that if he only destroyed access to the coins, would this truly have a permanent effect on the bitcoin economy as a whole, the suicide would just be the icing on the cake.

I'm in no way suggesting that I would enjoy or benefit from this happening... I just have a dark and twisted mind. Please don't kill yourself Pirate. Oh and don't run away with everyone's money either.

But it leaves a market opening for a Ponzi!  Good thinking!

I could imagine the pitch... We're the new Pirate, but different!

Reeses, is that you?

Hahahah, no, just a kindred spirit, apparently.

I don't know how to take that. So I'll take it as a compliment. :3
notme
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August 02, 2012, 04:06:32 PM
 #135

Why wouldn't he make both sides of the deal before agreeing to it?

Why does every anti-pirate FUDster assume pirate is retarded?

I don't get it.
Okay fine, then if you assume he makes 5% on every BTC trade he does (not outwith the realms of possibility) then he'd still have to trade somewhere in the region of 550k-600k BTC per week to break even...

And that's this week.
By october with trust accounts at the current rate he'd owe over a million BTC...

His average interest rate is roughly 2/3rds of the top tier and he has lowered his rate for many members multiple times.
Where do you get this from? There's a huge amount of cash tied up in "trust" accounts...

Okay, 2/3rds was slightly low, but here's the post I was thinking of (thanks for making me wast half an hour):
Would you be willing to disclose anything about your actual profit margins over the 7% weekly you pay for the use of funds?

The only good thing about this ever ending is that I'll find out what the hell it is. I might be able to replicate it in a different context .... Wink

Sure, I net gross 10.65% per week and payout 5.98% on average and it really depends on how much I want to work.  The process has become pretty automated lately which is nice because I can spend more time on my other projects and with the family. Smiley

Thanks for your polite and non-divulging question. Smiley

See.  When you ask him reasonable questions instead of spewing accusations he's actually a pretty reasonable guy.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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CoinCidental
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August 02, 2012, 04:19:07 PM
 #136

So,Pirate says  hes consistently making 10.65% a week ........Grin

http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs/29807_o.gif
boonies4u
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August 02, 2012, 04:22:40 PM
 #137

So,Pirate says  hes consistently making 10.65% a week ........Grin

http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs/29807_o.gif

Quit being so blatantly facetious! That was back in May anyways. Tongue
Sure, I net gross 10.65% per week and payout 5.98% on average and it really depends on how much I want to work.
imsaguy
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August 02, 2012, 04:23:14 PM
 #138

So,Pirate says  hes consistently making 10.65% a week ........Grin

http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs/29807_o.gif

If you're going to troll, at least learn how it insert it properly into a posting.  Img tags aren't that hard, they're in that little toolbar each time you post.  Shocked

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
Payment Address: http://btc.to/5r6
CoinCidental
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August 02, 2012, 04:27:03 PM
 #139

very touchy guys .....

anyone would think you guys hadnt gotten your principals back out yet ..... Cheesy
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August 02, 2012, 04:29:22 PM
 #140

very touchy guys .....

anyone would think you guys hadnt gotten your principals back out yet ..... Cheesy

We're all using smileys, none of us can be taken seriously.   Grin
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