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Author Topic: I have made a 25% return this week trading *against* the pirate  (Read 11664 times)
ArticMine
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July 24, 2012, 10:09:01 PM
 #81

It works because it plays on the weakness of the bulls. This can be because of thin bids, lack of substantial buyers, lack of competition on the buy side etc. It can also work very well against bulls subject to a margin call. It also takes advantage of stop losses by the bulls very well. The impact on the ask side is to induce either the movement of an ask to a lower price or even better induce sale at market thereby further lowering the price. It is fundamentally a good bear market strategy sell high and later buy low.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 25, 2012, 10:45:17 PM
 #82

There's nothing bear market about this chart.  Any pullback to around 8 is bought aggressively.  

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90ztgSza1gSMAzm1g20za2gSMAzm2g50zi1gVolzi2gMACDzi3gRSI

Also, Mt. Gox does not support stop orders.  nor do they allow any leverage.  So buying high in hopes of triggering others to buy higher, or selling low in hopes of triggering others to sell lower, just does not work in this market.  The act of "stop hunting" is also illegal in regulated markets, but it does occur regularly.

Anyone issuing a market-buy or market-sell order for 30,000 BTC will guarantee themselves the worst possible price on that trade.  That's ok, because you can trade against those people and profit quite handsomely.

The biggest buy I made was 3200 BTC below 8 the first time pirate pushed it down there, and bragged that he had the 8.00 ask wall.  I sold all of those coins over $9.00 within 24 hours.  



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July 25, 2012, 10:59:04 PM
 #83

The biggest buy I made was 3200 BTC below 8 the first time pirate pushed it down there, and bragged that he had the 8.00 ask wall.  I sold all of those coins over $9.00 within 24 hours.

Congrats?
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July 25, 2012, 11:22:55 PM
 #84

There's nothing bear market about this chart.  Any pullback to around 8 is bought aggressively.  

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90ztgSza1gSMAzm1g20za2gSMAzm2g50zi1gVolzi2gMACDzi3gRSI

Also, Mt. Gox does not support stop orders.  nor do they allow any leverage.  So buying high in hopes of triggering others to buy higher, or selling low in hopes of triggering others to sell lower, just does not work in this market.  The act of "stop hunting" is also illegal in regulated markets, but it does occur regularly.

Anyone issuing a market-buy or market-sell order for 30,000 BTC will guarantee themselves the worst possible price on that trade.  That's ok, because you can trade against those people and profit quite handsomely.

The biggest buy I made was 3200 BTC below 8 the first time pirate pushed it down there, and bragged that he had the 8.00 ask wall.  I sold all of those coins over $9.00 within 24 hours.  




I agree that we are not in a bear market; however my analysis of Pirate's trading strategy and borrowing structure is that it is very appropriate for a bear market such as the Bitcoin market from July 2011 - December 2011.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 25, 2012, 11:37:33 PM
 #85

Oops!  Anyone who sold at $9 expecting to buy back at $8 now has to buy back at $8.8. Smiley

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July 26, 2012, 12:55:31 AM
 #86

Oops!  Anyone who sold at $9 expecting to buy back at $8 now has to buy back at $8.8. Smiley
Don't speak too soon.

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. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
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July 26, 2012, 03:15:26 PM
 #87

Oops!  Anyone who sold at $9 expecting to buy back at $8 now has to buy back at $8.8. Smiley

And... that's still a profit. Even more so if they bought back at 8.4 or who-knows-where.
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July 26, 2012, 04:52:46 PM
 #88

Very big wall at 8.66?
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July 26, 2012, 07:00:01 PM
 #89

Very big wall at 8.66?

Yes, looks like pirate is already tired of bitpal's game.
We'll see who's the winner tomorrow.

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smoothie
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July 26, 2012, 07:16:37 PM
 #90

There's nothing bear market about this chart.  Any pullback to around 8 is bought aggressively.  

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90ztgSza1gSMAzm1g20za2gSMAzm2g50zi1gVolzi2gMACDzi3gRSI

Also, Mt. Gox does not support stop orders.  nor do they allow any leverage.  So buying high in hopes of triggering others to buy higher, or selling low in hopes of triggering others to sell lower, just does not work in this market.  The act of "stop hunting" is also illegal in regulated markets, but it does occur regularly.

Anyone issuing a market-buy or market-sell order for 30,000 BTC will guarantee themselves the worst possible price on that trade.  That's ok, because you can trade against those people and profit quite handsomely.

The biggest buy I made was 3200 BTC below 8 the first time pirate pushed it down there, and bragged that he had the 8.00 ask wall.  I sold all of those coins over $9.00 within 24 hours.  




And rightfully so. Anything that got sold at $9.50+ came back down.

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███████    ▐▄     ²██╩     a▌    ███████
╢██████    ▐▓█▄          ▄█▓▌    ███████
 ██████    ▐▓▓▓▓▌,     ▄█▓▓▓▌    ██████─
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
    ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─  
     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
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AndyRossy
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July 27, 2012, 12:48:10 PM
 #91

Just made a new bet, for those who are willing to bet for/against the pirate short term - in the wake of these new-trading strats.

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July 28, 2012, 12:13:43 AM
 #92

glad to see the bitpay guys can spot this giant ponzi too.  They seemed sharp when I met them at CES.

1)  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.1480  why the hell is this locked?

2)  I am keeping (wow there a ton of them) a list of obvious BTC ponzis & will expand to other lending-based or high-yield scams.  -->  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94900.0  to hopefully convince these kids to save their BTC and hopefully stop these run away train ponzi's that may have over $1M USD in them... gonna be a huge story when it goes boom... which ain't long at these levels.

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July 28, 2012, 01:50:30 AM
 #93

glad to see the bitpay guys can spot this giant ponzi too.  They seemed sharp when I met them at CES.

1)  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.1480  why the hell is this locked?

2)  I am keeping (wow there a ton of them) a list of obvious BTC ponzis & will expand to other lending-based or high-yield scams.  -->  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94900.0  to hopefully convince these kids to save their BTC and hopefully stop these run away train ponzi's that may have over $1M USD in them... gonna be a huge story when it goes boom... which ain't long at these levels.

In fairness to pirateat40 if a currency in inflating at more than 7% per week (compounded) as was the case for Bitcoin with respect to the USD between July 2011 and December 2011 paying 7% a week in interest is very close to the proper rate and not a ponzi. One needs to consider the real rate of return not the nominal rate of return when considering where something is a ponzi or not. The trouble here is that that an interest rate appropriate for 7% inflation per week does not work for deflation with a significant chance of hyper deflation. By the way the start of https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.1480 is so close to the recent bottom of the market in the 2 USD range that it makes it look like pirateat40 is a very good contrarian indicator on the BTC / USD price.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 31, 2012, 11:46:56 AM
 #94

In fairness to pirateat40 if a currency in inflating at more than 7% per week (compounded) as was the case for Bitcoin with respect to the USD between July 2011 and December 2011 paying 7% a week in interest is very close to the proper rate and not a ponzi. One needs to consider the real rate of return not the nominal rate of return when considering where something is a ponzi or not. The trouble here is that that an interest rate appropriate for 7% inflation per week does not work for deflation with a significant chance of hyper deflation. By the way the start of https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.1480 is so close to the recent bottom of the market in the 2 USD range that it makes it look like pirateat40 is a very good contrarian indicator on the BTC / USD price.

But but but..
He's supposed to pay the invested Bitcoins plus 7% in Bitcoins!
Its not like he is borrowing USD, secretly buying into Bitcoin, and paying back USD with 7% USD on top..

Ente
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July 31, 2012, 05:56:38 PM
 #95

In fairness to pirateat40 if a currency in inflating at more than 7% per week (compounded) as was the case for Bitcoin with respect to the USD between July 2011 and December 2011 paying 7% a week in interest is very close to the proper rate and not a ponzi. One needs to consider the real rate of return not the nominal rate of return when considering where something is a ponzi or not. The trouble here is that that an interest rate appropriate for 7% inflation per week does not work for deflation with a significant chance of hyper deflation. By the way the start of https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.1480 is so close to the recent bottom of the market in the 2 USD range that it makes it look like pirateat40 is a very good contrarian indicator on the BTC / USD price.

But but but..
He's supposed to pay the invested Bitcoins plus 7% in Bitcoins!
Its not like he is borrowing USD, secretly buying into Bitcoin, and paying back USD with 7% USD on top..

Ente

If he did the exact reverse between July 2011 and December 2011 it would have worked.
Borrow BTC
Sell BTC for USD
Watch BTC drop in value with respect to USD at a rate greater than 7% compounded weekly
Buy back BTC
Pay back investors principal plus interest in BTC
Keep profit in USD (The greater the drop in the BTC / USD price over the 7% interest compounded weekly)

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 31, 2012, 06:56:31 PM
 #96

bitpay's little game is going up in flames as we rocket up to $10 Grin

(BFL)^2 < 0
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July 31, 2012, 07:50:15 PM
 #97

bitpay's little game is going up in flames as we rocket up to $10 Grin

Since their main business is selling btc for usd I think they'll be okay Wink.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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July 31, 2012, 08:15:12 PM
 #98

bitpay's little game is going up in flames as we rocket up to $10 Grin

Since their main business is selling btc for usd I think they'll be okay Wink.

of course they'll be ok, but they're missing out on this.  I bet Steve sold at $9 already.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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August 01, 2012, 06:24:47 AM
 #99

It seems nobody is paying attention to the fact that Pirate has other operations that can supply BTC for BTCS&T, not to mention the select few whom have mentioned the potential for arbitrage across exchanges. There's also no way of knowing how much activity occurs off exchange.

Most seem to think the intention is simply to accumulate as much as possible, at all costs. What if the plan is to maintain stability so the entire Bitcoin economy can grow, appealing to businesses and those who would be frightened off by events like the 2011 bubble?
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August 01, 2012, 11:22:03 AM
 #100

One thing I realized today is that part of the recent rally in BTC price might be ponzi victim wannabes purchasing bitcoins in order to "invest" in Pirate's scheme (either directly or through some passthrough services).

Historically many Ponzi schemes have gotten extremely big even though everyone should have known them for what they are from the very start. Pirate's scheme does seem to have enough momentum to cause an unprecedented bubble in Bitcoin price.

Do not take this as investment advice. I'm just thinking aloud.
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