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Question: Guess how many bitcoin millionaires (1 Mio BTC) exist?
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Author Topic: [POLL] how many bitcoin millionnaires?  (Read 1442 times)
molecular
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July 23, 2012, 09:55:25 AM
 #1

To clarify: I'm looking for a guess of the number of persons who are each and on their own in control of 1 million BTC or more. In case a group of n people control a bunch of BTC, it has to be n * 1 million BTC or more and would count as n millionnaires.

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July 23, 2012, 06:40:49 PM
 #2

I think there is only one person....Satoshi....any other players would have had to accumulate over time....i just dont see that yet...

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July 23, 2012, 06:50:05 PM
 #3

I have to assume that many people don't understand the question. I can't really see that many people believing that out of the 9.5M BTC minted so far, there's 5 or more individual people that control at least 1M each.
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July 23, 2012, 06:55:36 PM
 #4

I have to assume that many people don't understand the question. I can't really see that many people believing that out of the 9.5M BTC minted so far, there's 5 or more individual people that control at least 1M each.

I figured they were trying to be funny... "5 or more" is extremely unrealistic.

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July 23, 2012, 06:57:10 PM
 #5

I have to assume that many people don't understand the question. I can't really see that many people believing that out of the 9.5M BTC minted so far, there's 5 or more individual people that control at least 1M each.

I figured they were trying to be funny... "5 or more" is extremely unrealistic.
Either that or they assumed a millionaire denominated in USD, which would only require 120kBTC and there could be 5 of those.
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July 23, 2012, 06:57:23 PM
 #6

I think there is only one person....Satoshi....any other players would have had to accumulate over time....i just dont see that yet...

Are you sure he was alone in 2009? He might not even have been the one reaping the most in that year... do we know this?

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molecular
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July 23, 2012, 06:59:33 PM
 #7

I have to assume that many people don't understand the question. I can't really see that many people believing that out of the 9.5M BTC minted so far, there's 5 or more individual people that control at least 1M each.

I figured they were trying to be funny... "5 or more" is extremely unrealistic.
Either that or they assumed a millionaire denominated in USD, which would only require 120kBTC and there could be 5 of those.

Ah, that's indeed a way in which the question might be misunderstood. I added clarification to the question.

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July 23, 2012, 07:05:40 PM
 #8

I'd be more interested in speculating how many people have 100,000 or more bitcoins. That's almost a million USD.

edit: typo

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July 23, 2012, 07:15:55 PM
 #9

I'd be more interested in speculating how many people have 100.000 or more bitcoins. That's almost a million USD.

I am equally interested in speculating how many people are short 100.000 or more bitcoins since that short position is almost a million USD.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 23, 2012, 07:31:47 PM
 #10

I would bet a massive amount on 0. Even 1 is a BIG stretch.

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molecular
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July 23, 2012, 07:42:09 PM
 #11

I would bet a massive amount on 0. Even 1 is a BIG stretch.

Too bad that bet would be extremely hard to decide. I'd be willing to bet on 1.

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July 23, 2012, 07:45:40 PM
 #12

I think there is only one person....Satoshi....any other players would have had to accumulate over time....i just dont see that yet...

Are you sure he was alone in 2009? He might not even have been the one reaping the most in that year... do we know this?

I'm not sure 100%. But I was being modest in my estimation.

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July 23, 2012, 07:56:36 PM
 #13

The largest address has ~500k btc and is associated with Silk Road.  Nobody has control of 1million btc, even considering the possibility of having multiple wallets

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July 23, 2012, 08:07:49 PM
 #14

The largest address has ~500k btc and is associated with Silk Road.  Nobody has control of 1million btc, even considering the possibility of having multiple wallets

On the other hand, take a look at an old post of mine: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37333.msg458441#msg458441

Quote
mysql> select case when txin2.txin_id is null then 'not moved' else case when block_tx2.block_id <= 32485 then 'moved i
n 2009' else 'moved after 2009' end end as move_status, sum(txout_value/1E8) from block_tx inner join block on block.bl
ock_id = block_tx.block_id inner join tx on block_tx.tx_id = tx.tx_id inner join txin on txin.tx_id=tx.tx_id inner join txout on txout.tx_id = tx.tx_id left join txin txin2 on txin2.txout_id = txout.txout_id left join tx tx2 on tx2.tx_id=txin2.tx_id left join block_tx block_tx2 on block_tx2.tx_id=tx2.tx_id where txin.txout_id is null and block.block_id <= 32485 group by move_status;
+------------------+----------------------+
| move_status      | sum(txout_value/1E8) |
+------------------+----------------------+
| moved after 2009 |            294800.15 |
| moved in 2009    |            137600.13 |
| not moved        |           1191852.59 |
+------------------+----------------------+

The data is old (Aug 2011) and I can't rerun the query because I don't have an up-to-date db, but maybe it still says something. 1.2 millions coins mined in 2009 have never been touched.

Ergo I think it's at least possible that satoshi has > 1 million BTC.

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