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Author Topic: difficulty too high while bitcoin society too small  (Read 21784 times)
BitterTea
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May 24, 2011, 11:15:27 PM
 #141

Let me say it one last time:  NOT EVERYONE IS LIKE YOU.

TRUE.

but count mumbers: 6 000 000 000 Earth citizen minus 10 000 bitcoin society members ARE LIKE ME, 'average Joe'.
The rest 10 000  bitcoin society members spread world-wide, ARE LIKE YOU.

WHY do you RAGE just because I advice to increase number of miners in the game from 10 000 to 1 000 000?

you CAN normalize mining profit to be VERY small, BUT roughly CONSTANT in time interval FEW years, or half a year, to allow 1 000 000 members to join the bitcoin society.

BUT you does close the society. I know WHY.

If you don't like Bitcoin, start your own currency.

How many times must I say this?
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vuce
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May 24, 2011, 11:15:56 PM
 #142

If they can't mine and get a taste for it, then most will just leave it be. I know I would.
but obviously a lot more have accepted bitcoin, that's why mining is not profitable anymore. You can't just let people mine (cheaply) indefinitely with growth like that, inflation would be astronomical. (that's the way i see it, but i might be dead wrong here)
afterburner229
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May 24, 2011, 11:20:26 PM
 #143

Afterburner229, Bitcoin is meant to be an alternative currency, not a means to profit from mining (that just happened to be a pleasant side effect for early adopters). If the "average Joe" won't use it because he can't understand its benefits, it's not up to us to pay him to use it.

I know Bitcoin is meant to be, I just proove WHY bitcoin society will decay too soon.
rezin777
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May 24, 2011, 11:22:33 PM
 #144


BUT you does close the society. I know WHY.
 

But you are wrong. The difficulty changes will make mining profitable for only the most efficient miners. If the exchange rate stays the same, the difficulty will increase until mining is only profitable to those who do it the best.

What you want is mining to be profitable to everyone for a very long time! That's insane and impossible to sustain.

Don't you understand, that if mining were allowed to be so easy, and the rate of new coin introduction was always going up, the price of Bitcoin would go down, defeating the whole point you are trying to achieve in the first place!

No one is going to buy something that is super easy to get. So no one is going to want to mine that junk. Damn dude...
afterburner229
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May 24, 2011, 11:24:41 PM
 #145


If you don't like Bitcoin, start your own currency.

How many times must I say this?

If you read pedantically,

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=9487.msg139923#msg139923

some premium person ask me to explain 'frozen people' concept.
amincd
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May 24, 2011, 11:31:14 PM
 #146

Quote from: afterburner
Quote from: amincd on Today at 11:54:29 am
He's saying difficulty is too high. If difficulty were lowered, there would be more blocks being created per hour.

I say, we need completely re-normalize current mining (BTC-mass/per unit time) algorithm by two functions - linear increasing one (while less than 90% gold-BTC has been mined) and exponetial decreasing one (when more than 90% gold-BTC will be mined).

That won't change any thing. The dedicated miners will still get the majority of them, and the majority of people who use bitcoins will not want to invest the time it takes to get into mining.
afterburner229
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May 24, 2011, 11:35:56 PM
 #147

But you are wrong. The difficulty changes will make mining profitable for only the most efficient miners. If the exchange rate stays the same, the difficulty will increase until mining is only profitable to those who do it the best.

What you want is mining to be profitable to everyone for a very long time! That's insane and impossible to sustain.

Don't you understand, that if mining were allowed to be so easy, and the rate of new coin introduction was always going up, the price of Bitcoin would go down, defeating the whole point you are trying to achieve in the first place!

No one is going to buy something that is super easy to get. So no one is going to want to mine that junk. Damn dude...

BECAUSE NO ONE PERSON READS ME PEDANTICALLY, THIS IS MY LAST POST.

JUST WAIT FEW WEEKS TO OBSERVE THE START OF BITCOIN DECAY AND FEW MONTHS TILL 2012 TO OBSERVE THE END OF DECAY.

BYE.
BitterTea
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May 25, 2011, 12:13:02 AM
 #148

BECAUSE NO ONE PERSON READS ME PEDANTICALLY, THIS IS MY LAST POST.

JUST WAIT FEW WEEKS TO OBSERVE THE START OF BITCOIN DECAY AND FEW MONTHS TILL 2012 TO OBSERVE THE END OF DECAY.

BYE.

Sigh... you want us to read your posts "overly concerned with formal rules and trivial points of learning"? Because that's what "pedantic" means...
kjj
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May 25, 2011, 01:09:42 AM
 #149

Let me say it one last time:  NOT EVERYONE IS LIKE YOU.

TRUE.

but count mumbers: 6 000 000 000 Earth citizen minus 10 000 bitcoin society members ARE LIKE ME, 'average Joe'.
The rest 10 000  bitcoin society members spread world-wide, ARE LIKE YOU.

WHY do you RAGE just because I advice to increase number of miners in the game from 10 000 to 1 000 000?

you CAN normalize mining profit to be VERY small, BUT roughly CONSTANT in time interval FEW years, or half a year, to allow 1 000 000 members to join the bitcoin society.

BUT you does close the society. I know WHY.

Heh.  I've got like 4 BTC to my name, and I earn about another 0.5 per day mining (for now).  I missed the goldrush too, but I'm not all butthurt about it like you are.

p2pcoin: a USB/CD/PXE p2pool miner - 1N8ZXx2cuMzqBYSK72X4DAy1UdDbZQNPLf - todo
I routinely ignore posters with paid advertising in their sigs.  You should too.
stic.man
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May 25, 2011, 01:40:14 AM
 #150

i don't know fuck all about mining and rigs but i bought a handful of coins and probably paid a lot less than what a rig setup costs and now i'm happily in the game and have zero interest in mining whatsoever.  I'm average Joe to a T

mestar
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May 25, 2011, 02:20:14 AM
 #151

AND FEW MONTHS TILL 2012 TO OBSERVE THE END OF DECAY.

Ok, guys, I think he finally got the point.  And he predicts that 2012 will be a good year for bitcoin. Smiley
BitterTea
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May 25, 2011, 02:41:53 AM
 #152

Something else I just realized...

If you're willing to spend, say $1000 on mining hardware, assuming that in the worst case scenario you will be able to recoup $800, you can also just buy $200 worth of bitcoin with a similar risk.
wb3
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May 25, 2011, 02:46:04 AM
 #153

i don't know fuck all about mining and rigs but i bought a handful of coins and probably paid a lot less than what a rig setup costs and now i'm happily in the game and have zero interest in mining whatsoever.  I'm average Joe to a T



Every once in a while turn on Generating for an hour, and see if you win the lottery, also Smiley


Net Worth = 0.10    Hah, "Net" worth Smiley
stic.man
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May 25, 2011, 03:49:25 AM
 #154

i have a garbage computer, wouldn't be worth slowing me down
Clipse
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May 25, 2011, 04:21:01 AM
 #155

Afterburner make it easy on yourself and understand one simple thing, bitcoin != mining, the mining aspect is just a extra way to make something out of bitcoins atm.

Anders, Clipse, you are newbies, but premium members did confirm that problem I mentioned does exist.
They simply have their own interests in pyramid game.

Of course, I can exactly TODAY bye bitcoins and, EXACTLY a WEEK later, to sell.
And I will have almost 100% guarantie of profit.

BUT THIS IS THE PYRAMID GAME.
  

Afterburner, if your knowledge about economics is as sound as your grasp for english, I absolutely understand why you are so negative over subjects concerning bitcoins.

Also, I write this message to you PEDANTICLY. aaight!

...In the land of the stale, the man with one share is king... >> Clipse

We pay miners at 130% PPS | Signup here : Bonus PPS Pool (Please read OP to understand the current process)
afterburner229
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May 26, 2011, 08:20:02 PM
 #156

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html

========================

Difficulty   434883
Estimated   872663 in 2003 blks
Network total   6.867 Thash/s (WAS 4.8 Thash/s FEW DAYS AGO)

mtgox trade volume (average) = const for 1.6 months (does NOT rise)

========================

Do you still believe, number of miners (living PEOPLE) rised in proportion, from 4.8 Thash/s to 6.867 Thash/s in FEW days, i.e. multiplicator of 1.5 times in FEW days?!

Do you still believe, number of mtgox & other exchange's players (living PEOPLE) rised duing last 1.6 months?!

========================

It seems like CIA made an evil joke - remember 'INECPTION' movie with Leonardo DiCaprio.
Like CIA did embed the Bitcoin idea, being so nice from cryptographic point of view.
BUT with WRONG constant set, affecting difficulty algorithm.


BitterTea
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May 26, 2011, 08:33:55 PM
 #157

The calculation on BitcoinCharts is inaccurate soon after a difficulty increase. That's because the hash rate and estimated difficulty are calculated based on the rate of block generation since the last increase. Since only 19 blocks have been found at the new difficulty, the sample size is very small and leads to an inaccurate calculation.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

afterburner229
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May 26, 2011, 09:18:56 PM
 #158

The calculation on BitcoinCharts is inaccurate soon after a difficulty increase. That's because the hash rate and estimated difficulty are calculated based on the rate of block generation since the last increase. Since only 19 blocks have been found at the new difficulty, the sample size is very small and leads to an inaccurate calculation.

LOL)) I studied mathematical statictics in Moscow State University. Of course,
"Since only 19 blocks have been found at the new difficulty, the sample size is very small and leads to an inaccurate calculation"

But DID you compute EXACT numbers, some like 'std. deviation' (note, std. deviation itself can not be applied in this case),
HOW MUCH is calculation innacurate?
Huh LOL. LOL. LOL))

19 blocks from 2000 is sufficient for rough estimates in THIS extrapolation case. Since extrapolation unlike interpolation, is rough by it's mathematical nature. Also, in the all recent difficulty switches, difficulty was risen by almost exactly TWICE factor. It was confirmed AFTER each switch had been made.

1. See, next difficulty estimation (even based on 19 blocks from 2000) is also nearly TWICE the (new) current difficulty, as it was nearly TWICE in the all recent difficulty switches.

2. Also, observing trade volume levels on mtgox during 1.6 months is sufficient for rough estimes, that number of exchange's traders (living people) is ALREADY FROZEN for 1.6 months.

======================
We need to reject all thinking, but to focus upon NUMBER of living PEOPLE as function of TIME, being ATTRACTED to bitcoin SOCIETY.
This is THE ONLY parameter, that bitcoin survival depends on.
LMGTFY
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May 26, 2011, 09:36:33 PM
 #159

The calculation on BitcoinCharts is inaccurate soon after a difficulty increase. That's because the hash rate and estimated difficulty are calculated based on the rate of block generation since the last increase. Since only 19 blocks have been found at the new difficulty, the sample size is very small and leads to an inaccurate calculation.

LOL)) I studied mathematical statictics in Moscow State University. Of course,
"Since only 19 blocks have been found at the new difficulty, the sample size is very small and leads to an inaccurate calculation"

But DID you compute EXACT numbers, some like 'std. deviation' (note, std. deviation itself can not be applied in this case),
HOW MUCH is calculation innacurate?
Huh LOL. LOL. LOL))

19 blocks from 2000 is sufficient for rough estimates in THIS extrapolation case. Since extrapolation unlike interpolation, is rough by it's mathematical nature. Also, in the all recent difficulty switches, difficulty was risen by almost exactly TWICE factor. It was confirmed AFTER each switch had been made.

1. See, next difficulty estimation (even based on 19 blocks from 2000) is also nearly TWICE the (new) current difficulty, as it was nearly TWICE in the all recent difficulty switches.

2. Also, observing trade volume levels on mtgox during 1.6 months is sufficient for rough estimes, that number of exchange's traders (living people) is ALREADY FROZEN for 1.6 months.

======================
We need to reject all thinking, but to focus upon NUMBER of living PEOPLE as function of TIME, being ATTRACTED to bitcoin SOCIETY.
This is THE ONLY parameter, that bitcoin survival depends on.

This graph should give you a clearer idea as to what the current network hashrate really is. 19 blocks might be enough for you or me, but bitcoinwatch always loses the plot after a difficulty change. This is well documented here on this forum - every time the difficulty changes someone posts to ask why the network hashrate has apparently skyrocketed, and someone patiently explains that this is what always happens, and in a few blocks time the difficulty estimate will settle down.


This space intentionally left blank.
afterburner229
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May 26, 2011, 10:16:36 PM
 #160

This graph should give you a clearer idea as to what the current network hashrate really is. 19 blocks might be enough for you or me, but bitcoinwatch always loses the plot after a difficulty change. This is well documented here on this forum - every time the difficulty changes someone posts to ask why the network hashrate has apparently skyrocketed, and someone patiently explains that this is what always happens, and in a few blocks time the difficulty estimate will settle down.

I see you CAN hypnotize newbies, cunning fox. LOL))

Let us reject difficulty from the view completely. Watch the another graph from the same site:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png

This graph has EXPONENTIAL axis 0Y, so exponetial growing function itself will be LINEAR on this graph.
We see the power of bitcoin network, in GHash/s is:
1. nearly linear slice @ time period Oct 2010 - Dec 2010
2. EXPONENTIAL slice @ period Dec 2010 - Mar 2011
3. second EXPONENTIAL slice @ period Mar 2011 - Jun 2011

I.e. what we see since roughly April, 20, 2011 - EXPONENTIAL GROW IN EXPONETIAL AXIS!
What is it?!
GHash/s (t) = EXP ( EXP (t))
?!

Hint: One person has Core i7 computer with integrated GPU and 7 MHash/s, then he observes, difficulty is skyrocketing, and he buys ATI 5870x2 or 5970 GPU, and his hash rate skyrockets from 7 up to 700MHash/s. His mining power increases in 100 times in ONE day, but he stay the same ONE mining person.

==================

Let's research another function - number of people (miners & traders) being attracted into bitcoin society - as function of time.
Current difficulty algorithm can not allow the number of people attracted to grow exponentially, but this is required for survival on earlier stages of society developing. 10000 members spread world-wide is not the society for the currency. and I proof, they frozen without growing.


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