Lyth0s' Quotes from "Smart Economists" That Couldn't Be More Wrong

[lyth0s]

It would be awesome if we make this a community effort to find the worst predictions/statements that well known economists have made. Lets consolidate these in one place for everyone to see

Paul Krugman, New York Times

Remember, interest rates can’t fall — the zero lower bound isn’t a theory, it’s a fact, and it’s a fact that we’ve been facing for five years now.

--Negative interest rates are starting most notably in Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Austria and in a few corporate bonds such as Nestle

Paul Krugman, The Red Herring

"The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.

--The internet has provided countless jobs (think companies like Google), it opened the gateway for 'at home' stock traders and high frequency trading...I could never list all the impacts the internet has had on economics

Franklin Raines (Fannie Mae CEO) Speech to Congress in 2004

These supbrime assets are so riskless that their capital for holding them should be under 2 percent.

--Then the government rescued Fannie Mae in 2008 during the subprime loan crisis

Joseph Cassano (AIG) in 2007

It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of these Credit Default Swap transactions.

--Also required government intervention in 2008

Donald Luskin in 2008

Anyone who says we’re in a recession, or heading into one—especially the worst one since the Great Depression—is making up his own private definition of 'recession'

--The Recession began that very year.

Ben Bernanke in January 2008

The Federal Reserve is currently not forecasting a recession.

--Recession began that year. The Fed either lied to us or they are terrible at analyzing the economy.

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[lyth0s]

Found a quote from that article that I like: http://www.ou.edu/deptcomm/dodjcc/groups/99A2/theories.htm

Innovators are eager to try new ideas, to the point where their venturesomeness almost becomes an obsession. Innovators’ interest in new ideas leads them out of a local circle of peers and into social relationships more cosmopolite than normal.  Usually, innovators have substantial financial resources, and the ability to understand and apply complex technical knowledge.  While others may consider the innovator to be rash or daring, it is the hazardous risk-taking that is of salient value to this type of individual.

If we currently have 2,000,000 Bitcoin users and the world population is about 8 billion then this would be marking the end of the Innovator stage and the beginning of the Early Adopters. Cheers!

[pawel7777]

If we currently have 2,000,000 Bitcoin users and the world population is about 8 billion then this would be marking the end of the Innovator stage and the beginning of the Early Adopters. Cheers!

Not sure whether this number of bitcoin users is reliable assumption, but anyway 2 millions out of 8 billions is 0.025% not 2.5%.

Nice thread btw. I'm sure there's much more quotes of this sort. Found this article (from 2011):

http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2011/11/11/top-10-terrible-predictions-about-economy

[lyth0s]

If we currently have 2,000,000 Bitcoin users and the world population is about 8 billion then this would be marking the end of the Innovator stage and the beginning of the Early Adopters. Cheers!

Not sure whether this number of bitcoin users is reliable assumption, but anyway 2 millions out of 8 billions is 0.025% not 2.5%.

Nice thread btw. I'm sure there's much more quotes of this sort. Found this article (from 2011):

http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2011/11/11/top-10-terrible-predictions-about-economy

Whoops! Thank you for the core correction. I'll have to check the article out tonight on my PC

[alh]

It's crazy to think that all 8 billion people are possible users of Bitcoin. Absent good Internet connectivity, electricity, and some kind of computing capability, you can't use Bitcoin. Also your prospective "trading partners" have to be in a similar situation, or else it doesn't fly. As a currency, Bitcoin has some MAJOR hurdles to overcome.

[lyth0s]

It's crazy to think that all 8 billion people are possible users of Bitcoin. Absent good Internet connectivity, electricity, and some kind of computing capability, you can't use Bitcoin. Also your prospective "trading partners" have to be in a similar situation, or else it doesn't fly. As a currency, Bitcoin has some MAJOR hurdles to overcome.

Have you seen people with cell phones in the middle of Africa yet? Have you seen Bitcoin services via SMS even without a true internet connection? Open your eyes buddy, the world is advancing.

And if we consider the total population pool to be less than 8 billion then we have even a greater percentage of bitcoin adoption than the numbers I'm stating, which is great!