Greece: Greenspan predicts exit from euro inevitable

[grendel25]

The subject line seriously made me laugh. So what if Greenspan predicts it... this has been predicted by everyone already.  Greece has proven to be financially irresponsible and most of Europe doesn't want them in the Euro zone.  Greece has a lot of making up to do in order to get back with the financial world

[alani123]

That's nothing more than speculation. SYRIZA has stated that they have absolutely no intention to push greece out of the Euro, and have backed away from many of their original proposals to achieve that.

[Grand_Voyageur]

Mr Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, said: "I believe [Greece] will eventually leave. I don't think it helps them or the rest of the eurozone - it is just a matter of time before everyone recognises that parting is the best strategy.

"The problem is that there there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of continuing, unless and until all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated - actually even just fiscally integrated won't do it."

more here : http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31249907

I think the Greece will never go out from the Europe, what do you think guys ?

I'm not so sure about Greece reforming itself enough to keep her EMU membership. Greece due to her own geography have difficulties in collecting taxes (1, 2) and concentrating capital in accordance with the needs of the state. Also due to the same financial constraints the question for Greece is whether it will be able to accept its much-reduced geopolitical role. Reducing the huge defence budget require an agreement with Turkey so that Greece have not to see Turkey as an existential threat anymore; however, this is easy said than done (3, 4). Alternatively, Greece needs to find a way to become useful again to one or more great powers - as an example her recent try to court Russia - so to receive from them financial subsidies (5).

You say the Greeks are courting a Russian bailout?  My guess is the Bear is in no position to bail out anybody.  When times get tough go to war - it's a simple solution to unemployment especially in the defense economy sector.

Maybe someday after petroleum is all pumped and burned, the EU will become a de facto satellite of Russia or freeze.  Not going to see a trans-Atlantic natural gas pipeline anytime soon.

Greeks are playing the Russian card since now Russia and NATO members are engaged in a new Cold War, so Greece can received its subsidies from one side or both. How about Russia further breaking up NATO weak cohesion? How far are the United States or European NATO members going deep in their pockets to prevent this from happening?

You call a future in which the EU may become a de facto satellite of Russia but the United States fought multiple wars to prevent the emergence of an hegemon on the Eurasian landmass. According to Mackinder's Heartland Theory United States have to prevent the link up of German & EU Technologies with Russian resources and Manpower just to prevent the emergence of such an hegemon

[kresu]

I think the Greece will never go out from the Europe, what do you think guys ?

I think if Greece goes out from Europe, they will join Africa. Or Asia, if it won't work.

[Exther2]

I think the Greece will never go out from the Europe, what do you think guys ?

You're rite, Greece is already in Europe

[soy]

I think the Greece will never go out from the Europe, what do you think guys ?

I think if Greece goes out from Europe, they will join Africa. Or Asia, if it won't work.

Well consider the effect if Greece were to leave the EU.  Countries may view an EU breakup as a means of tightening their borders and so leave the EU as well.  If the European Union gets on the ropes then any pan-South American union is much more unlikely.

[soy]

Mr Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, said: "I believe [Greece] will eventually leave. I don't think it helps them or the rest of the eurozone - it is just a matter of time before everyone recognises that parting is the best strategy.

"The problem is that there there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of continuing, unless and until all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated - actually even just fiscally integrated won't do it."

more here : http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31249907

I think the Greece will never go out from the Europe, what do you think guys ?

I'm not so sure about Greece reforming itself enough to keep her EMU membership. Greece due to her own geography have difficulties in collecting taxes (1, 2) and concentrating capital in accordance with the needs of the state. Also due to the same financial constraints the question for Greece is whether it will be able to accept its much-reduced geopolitical role. Reducing the huge defence budget require an agreement with Turkey so that Greece have not to see Turkey as an existential threat anymore; however, this is easy said than done (3, 4). Alternatively, Greece needs to find a way to become useful again to one or more great powers - as an example her recent try to court Russia - so to receive from them financial subsidies (5).

You say the Greeks are courting a Russian bailout?  My guess is the Bear is in no position to bail out anybody.  When times get tough go to war - it's a simple solution to unemployment especially in the defense economy sector.

Maybe someday after petroleum is all pumped and burned, the EU will become a de facto satellite of Russia or freeze.  Not going to see a trans-Atlantic natural gas pipeline anytime soon.

Greeks are playing the Russian card since now Russia and NATO members are engaged in a new Cold War, so Greece can received its subsidies from one side or both. How about Russia further breaking up NATO weak cohesion? How far are the United States or European NATO members going deep in their pockets to prevent this from happening?

You call a future in which the EU may become a de facto satellite of Russia but the United States fought multiple wars to prevent the emergence of an hegemon on the Eurasian landmass. According to Mackinder's Heartland Theory United States have to prevent the link up of German & EU Technologies with Russian resources and Manpower just to prevent the emergence of such an hegemon

Would the Germans ever consider allying with Russians after WWII?  Germans were at the forefront of the US and Soviet space programs.  The Soviets went into Vienna having the first satellite ahead of the US.  This allowed JFK to pop a quick question of a joint trip the the moon.  NK quickly replied NO.  JFK dropped it.  Before that day's conference was over NK was already trying to backtrack on that answer.  JFK wouldn't ask again.  I suspect the Soviets were upset not only at the US at the Germans as well.  And consider the experience of the East Germans.  No.  I don't think a linkup of German and Russians is in the cards.  

[galbros]

It is really hard to have a monetary union without a political union as well.  Many thought the Euro would not work and this is the type of situation that they thought would end it.  See this for a great summary   of US economists thinking on why it would not work.

Not saying that Greece should, just that what Europe has tried is really hard.

Also, agree that Greenspan has a tarnished image post 2008 crisis.

[redsn0w]

Can I ask if someone here is from Greece? I would like to receive an opinion also from him. Thanks to all the participants (I didn't think this would be an interesting thread with a lot of valid opinions).

[saddampbuh]

its not about what greece wants, if nobody lends them more money they go insolvent in 9 days and nobody will lend to them as tsipras has already said he wont apply for the bailout extension which is connected to austerity, they either re issue their own currency and see it devalued and redenominate the debt in drachma or face mad max situation

[Rampion]

Greece is too importante geopolitically to exit the Euro. That would automatically mean Greece getting closer to Russia/Iran/China, which NATO wouldn't like at all.

Greece is one of the most important ports in the Mediterranean sea, imagine how happy would Obama be if the NATO bases in Greek islands are replaced by Russian military bases.

[Agestorzrxx]

He is right to be fair, Europe needs to unite politically, as well as but not just fiscally. Hopefully that is what will happen.

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

Greece says if they leave then expect Italy will soon follow due to their own debt situation.

I'm not clear on the EU economic bonds versus their political bonds.  Say Greece pulls out then Italy, will border crossing posts requiring passports go up along the Italian border?

More of Bitcoin owner concern, will Greek and Italian banks halt withdrawals?  Will Bitcoin benefit or has its devaluation since December 2013 precluded it as a 'safer' haven than Greek or Italian banks?

Italian minister has already said that greece is pulling shit out of their ass when they say Italy will leave if Greece leaves.
Greece is alone in this... unless they dont change their opinion before 28th its game over for them.

[redsn0w]

So no one here is greek and can tell his personal opinion (as citizen of Greece)? I think we are at the end, the system is going to fail.

[Maegfaer]

Regardless of whether Greece leaves, the EMU is in big trouble. The EMU has a huge structural problem, and there's no way out. If the rest of the EU gives in to Greece's demands, Spain will want the same treatment, and after that Portugal, Italy and France as well. Continued austerity doesn't improve the Southern economies either, eventually turning them into Third World countries.

The EMU was never an economically sensible project, it was an idealistic political dream project to some and at the same time a French plan to contain Germany's economic power, and now faces harsh reality. A monetary union in such divergent economies without a full political union was simply a retarded plan, the strong economies will destroy the weaker ones due to a lack of control over national currency valuation, and then they drag down the strong ones with them. At the same time the weak economies abuse the relatively strong currency and low interest rates with irresponsible financial policies.

If Greece exits the EMU their economy will probably start growing after the initial chaos, possibly with deals with Russia and China. Greece is geopolitically important, so even if it doesn't pay off immediately, they'll be interested.

He is right to be fair, Europe needs to unite politically, as well as but not just fiscally. Hopefully that is what will happen.

That's not what's going to happen. The differences between EU member countries are way too big to unite politically. It's completely unrealistic. It's about as realistic as Mexico and the USA joining politically.

[redsn0w]

At the end what do you think? Will the Greece get out from the Europe this year or not ?

[Rampion]

At the end what do you think? Will the Greece get out from the Europe this year or not ?

As I wrote earlier: no because Greece location's is too important for NATO. Greece is one of the most important ports in the Mediterranean Sea. The Greek islands are full of NATO military bases. NATO wouldn't want Greece to get closer to China/Iran/Russia, which you can bet they would do if they get kicked out from the Euro.

[picolo]

At the end what do you think? Will the Greece get out from the Europe this year or not ?

As I wrote earlier: no because Greece location's is too important for NATO. Greece is one of the most important ports in the Mediterranean Sea. The Greek islands are full of NATO military bases. NATO wouldn't want Greece to get closer to China/Iran/Russia, which you can bet they would do if they get kicked out from the Euro.

Greece has spent outrageous amount of money on mililtary and military equipement.

[Snail2]

He is right to be fair, Europe needs to unite politically, as well as but not just fiscally. Hopefully that is what will happen.

Hopefully that never will happen. Most European nations fought for centuries for keeping or gaining sovereignty. Why should we give it up for a bunch of burocrats, bankers and their friends and business partners in Brusseles?

[GreekBitcoin]

So no one here is greek and can tell his personal opinion (as citizen of Greece)? I think we are at the end, the system is going to fail.

most people in this forum think that politics is choosing between democrats and republicans. They also think that if they have heard something from CNN or DW it must be the truth! So there is no point in discussions really...


But here have a hint. The problem is systemic. Even if everything doesnt collapse with just Greece it will eventually collapse. Rather soon i might say.