There is a 0.1 BTC prize for the most accurate difficulty guess, no strings attached, just some basic rules - see below.
Nobody won the previous one due to the 1% rule, so the amount has been rolled over and we have a
0.2 BTC payout for this difficulty cycle.
Official deadline is
16:00 (4 PM) UTC February 15th, 2015 extended to 04:00 (4 AM) UTC February 16th, 2015, roughly 40-50% into the cycle. I will accept entries made after the deadline as long as they are posted before I publish the final list of participants - to allow for a grace period in case bitcointalk.org is down.
A guess is a percentage with up to two decimal places (I'll round it if you put more than two) posted here in this thread. No PMs or posts elsewhere or anything else. Must include a "+" or "-" sign. No special "enrollment" wording or format is needed for the bounty - just post like you would normally do, as long as it's clear that you're predicting the next diff change percentage.
To win you must guess
within 1 percentage point of the actual change. The guess that is
nearest to the actual change wins. If nobody is within 1 percentage point the bounty will roll over to the next cycle.
If you guess multiple times only the
last one (not the best one) submitted before the deadline will be counted, i.e. you can revise your bet until the deadline.
To determine the winner I will use the percentage shown by
bitcoinwisdom (table at the bottom of the page) after the next adjustment.
Tiebreakers:
1) Your number must be unique. If you would like your guess to be considered for the bounty please review previous guesses and make sure your number is different from all others. I will try to warn if I see duplicates but if a duplicate slips through only
the first member who posted that number will be eligible for the bounty.
2) If two winning guesses end up within the same distance of the actual difficulty change
the first member who posted his/her guess wins.
To collect the bounty the winner will need to PM me their BTC address and the TX ID will be posted publicly.
Allow up to 2-3 days after the next adjustment for me to pay out, although I should be able to do it much sooner than that.
Edit: A couple of rule changes from the previous thread - grace period in case bitcointalk.org is down, and an additional tiebreaker if the diff ends up in the middle of two guesses.
And here are the funds for the prize for this cycle plus a couple more:
https://blockchain.info/address/1Nz1eoPMqBUSRwgQCS5fiocrZk4VDeG6wiEdit2: spelling errors.
