New diff thread Feb 9 to Feb ? this has a promo for best guess.

[suchmoon]

(+8.41%) is my guess right now.

Well since you want to snip my guess I would change my guess to 8.52+

I don't think however that this kind of snipping should be allowed

Welcome to the price is right lol

That's a good point, it does make it a bit unfair, but the more people we have participating the more likely it is to have to happen, we only have so much reasonable range to work with.

Maybe we should change it from a 1% margin of error to something lower?

EDIT: here's another thought.  Maybe we should require a small buy-in to participate.  Winner take all.

Well on the price is right I understand that you only get one guess, there is generally more information available regarding the price and the "bidding" order is random.

I think it would be fair that any guess would have a 'guaranteed' spread/margin of something like 0.2% both above and below of your guess, so for example if you bid +1% then everything from +0.8 to +1.2 is considered taken (my guess is still +8.52%). I think this would encourage more early guessing and would give an advantage to early guessers who otherwise are at an advantage due to lack of data

Thank you for the feedback. I'm open to discussion and here is what I think about it.

If anything the rules should be simplified, not made more complicated. For example what happens with your example if someone says +0.79? Does that person not have a full "range" of +0.2% because 0.8-1.0 belongs to another person?

I don't think there is any "sniping" or any other kind of "outbidding" here like e.g. on eBay, since you don't know which way it will go. In other words if you think it's 9.15% - say 9.15%, don't say 8.65% to cover a range.

The 1% rule only kicks in if everybody is completely wrong (like last time), it's not a "margin of error", and it's not supposed to improve your chance of winning against other participants - it's the opposite actually because if the rule needed to be applied it means NOBODY wins. I think I'll try to reword the rules for the next cycle to state that the 1% is applied after all other rules and tiebreakers - it wouldn't change the outcome but perhaps would make it less confusing.

Anyway, the list so far - below. Let me know if I missed anything. Korbman - please change your number.

GermanGiant +3.00%
davejh +0.50%
Ume +6.00%
Kexkey +4.77%
philipma1957 -1.11%
adaseb +8.00%
SimplisticStu +4.55%
geforcelover +4.12%
wpt1wpt1 +3.45%
klondike_bar -4.25%
gallery2000 -20.00%  I think I know what you're doing here
galdur +5.28%
buyandhold +0.77%
Quickseller -4.80%
jermwerty +8.01%
edonkey waiting for the cat
Korbman needs to change the number (used +5.28% same as galdur)
armedmilitia +2.00%
quakefiend420 +8.41%
thriftshopping +8.52%
HerbPean +4.20%

[suchmoon]

And to try and stay on topic: after nearly 500 blocks the average 512 504-block time is 9.9 minutes (about 1% faster than target), which means the hashrate is almost unchanged since the start of the cycle.

[tsm13]

addin my guess

+1.27%

[Korbman]

Korbman needs to change the number (used +5.28% same as galdur)

Ah, sorry about that. I've got galdur on ignore. I'll change to: +5.30%

[SunnyIgor]

I think +1.5%

[edonkey]

Miles (the oldest of our two cats) says -0.2%. Hardly any change at all...

I had to use a lot of fishy treats to get this out of him. Hope he's right 

[tlhIlwI]

-2.71%

[wunkbone]

I guess -5.5%

edit: if I win my address is 1DKjc5PSJ97G1k4tutURsywBTMoujfZujr

[suchmoon]

Miles (the oldest of our two cats) says -0.2%. Hardly any change at all...

I had to use a lot of fishy treats to get this out of him. Hope he's right 

That's what I would call an unreliable witness. We all know that torture and bribes (not sure which category "fishy" falls into) have never produced credible intelligence .

[edonkey]

Miles (the oldest of our two cats) says -0.2%. Hardly any change at all...

I had to use a lot of fishy treats to get this out of him. Hope he's right 

That's what I would call an unreliable witness. We all know that torture and bribes (not sure which category "fishy" falls into) have never produced credible intelligence .

You might be right. I'm already regretting my guess.

But if Miles is wrong this time, I can try again with our other cat next time.

[philipma1957]

the site below is the most accurate on day to day.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


feb   9th   164 blocks  norm is 144---------but part of these were last adjustment
feb 10th   132 blocks  norm is 144
feb  11th  159 blocks   norm is 144
feb  12th  124 blocks norm is  144


so running 3 day total is  415  3 day normal is 3 x 144 =  432   so for the 3 full days we are (-3.93%)


Now I am not saying a player like ghash is turning 30ph on and off and we are seeing diff seesaw due to this.  I am saying it has become a financial possibility that can work.

A more likely reason for see-saw action is many people are on the fence with diff and btc rate.  last adjustment made mining a loser and people have shut off starting this first couple of days. the one up day could be variance.  Are we  in the end game for asic's will we get a 0.1watt unit no not unless serious money and demand drives the btc price to 500 or 800 usd.

The new site I post above I like quite a bit.

  I still refer to www.bitcoincharts.com and www.bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

maybe my  -1.11 percent  will be a nice guess I suppose I could give half to seriouscoin

[ivonna]

I would say that either a major player or a number of smaller players likely turned off their equipment after the last difficulty increase.

The rolling 504 block estimated hashrate has been going above and below the 2016 block hashrate as of the last difficulty change, likely to the point that it is just "luck noise"

I don't really see many more miners bring brought online, however I do see some at home miners taking their equipment offline as they start to get their electric bill and see that what they recently mined does not cover their bill so they will take them offline.

My guess is -3.55%

[chaoman]

0% change.

[adaseb]

I would say that either a major player or a number of smaller players likely turned off their equipment after the last difficulty increase.

The rolling 504 block estimated hashrate has been going above and below the 2016 block hashrate as of the last difficulty change, likely to the point that it is just "luck noise"

I don't really see many more miners bring brought online, however I do see some at home miners taking their equipment offline as they start to get their electric bill and see that what they recently mined does not cover their bill so they will take them offline.

My guess is -3.55%

Right now at the moment its too early too tell. One or two days doesn't make a difference. Need a wait a week or so to see what will happen.

[SimplisticStu]

I would say that either a major player or a number of smaller players likely turned off their equipment after the last difficulty increase.

The rolling 504 block estimated hashrate has been going above and below the 2016 block hashrate as of the last difficulty change, likely to the point that it is just "luck noise"

I don't really see many more miners bring brought online, however I do see some at home miners taking their equipment offline as they start to get their electric bill and see that what they recently mined does not cover their bill so they will take them offline.

My guess is -3.55%

Right now at the moment its too early too tell. One or two days doesn't make a difference. Need a wait a week or so to see what will happen.

Don't forget the deadline.

Official deadline is 16:00 (4 PM) UTC February 15th, 2015, about 6 days from now and roughly 40-50% into the cycle. I will accept entries made after the deadline as long as they are posted before I publish the final list of participants - to allow for a grace period in case bitcointalk.org is down.

[A4Tech]

Well i think 5.6%

[notlist3d]

It's not looking like a horrible jump:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    44,455,415,962
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,440,075,174 (+4.46%)
Adjust time:    After 1417 Blocks, About 10.0 days

As far my guess I will go with + 4.15

[gallery2000]

0% change.

My guess is 0.01%

[tertius993]

+3.22%

[tarmi]

+ 2.23 %

is my guess!