Same topic different year

[tabnloz]

Two comments from a 2011 thread on the deflating of the bitcoin $32 bubble that sum up the bear v bull argument.


Bear: "To answer the question in the thread title...we're going all the way down.  There simply is no reason for bitcoins to be worth more than a $1, no reason at all. Nagle has been right.  When a bubble pops, it pops all the way, and in the case of bitcoin, there's no reason for a legitimate recovery on the horizon."

Bull: "If you can only think on short time scales, you are going to eventually get screwed in the long term. At least with bitcoin, the fluctuations are due solely to participants in the market, rather than the institutions who actually control the monetary systems across the world. Over time, stability will come. Stop asking from bitcoin what it can't give you right now. The client is still in 0.4 beta. If you want true stability, invest your money in actual bitcoin businesses rather than on casino games like bitcoinica."


Not much has changed. But while past performance is no guarantee of future success, it'd be remiss not to entertain the thought of bitcoin eventually going on another run. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested into the future ecosystem. It may be an oft mentioned meme but when the fruits of this injection come to bear we should be seeing another bull run.

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[RyNinDaCleM]

Two comments from a 2011 thread on the deflating of the bitcoin $32 bubble that sum up the bear v bull argument.


Bear: "To answer the question in the thread title...we're going all the way down.  There simply is no reason for bitcoins to be worth more than a $1, no reason at all. Nagle has been right.  When a bubble pops, it pops all the way, and in the case of bitcoin, there's no reason for a legitimate recovery on the horizon."

Bull: "If you can only think on short time scales, you are going to eventually get screwed in the long term. At least with bitcoin, the fluctuations are due solely to participants in the market, rather than the institutions who actually control the monetary systems across the world. Over time, stability will come. Stop asking from bitcoin what it can't give you right now. The client is still in 0.4 beta. If you want true stability, invest your money in actual bitcoin businesses rather than on casino games like bitcoinica."


Not much has changed. But while past performance is no guarantee of future success, it'd be remiss not to entertain the thought of bitcoin eventually going on another run. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested into the future ecosystem. It may be an oft mentioned meme but when the fruits of this injection come to bear we should be seeing another bull run.

The biggest thing I disagree with is that Bitcoin will never be stable. EVER. No matter the price. Never.
It was said at $2 that if Bitcoin reached $100 or $1000... and guess what? It was just as volatile as ever. It will be the same story at $10k.

[Chef Ramsay]

Yep, I'd just sell at this point. Why stand in front of a firing squad? The best course of action is to gtfo at this point. Holding bitcoins is a pipedream according to many in this subforum and they could have a special thought in their minds. So, sell your tulips and never look back.

[podyx]

Two comments from a 2011 thread on the deflating of the bitcoin $32 bubble that sum up the bear v bull argument.


Bear: "To answer the question in the thread title...we're going all the way down.  There simply is no reason for bitcoins to be worth more than a $1, no reason at all. Nagle has been right.  When a bubble pops, it pops all the way, and in the case of bitcoin, there's no reason for a legitimate recovery on the horizon."

Bull: "If you can only think on short time scales, you are going to eventually get screwed in the long term. At least with bitcoin, the fluctuations are due solely to participants in the market, rather than the institutions who actually control the monetary systems across the world. Over time, stability will come. Stop asking from bitcoin what it can't give you right now. The client is still in 0.4 beta. If you want true stability, invest your money in actual bitcoin businesses rather than on casino games like bitcoinica."


Not much has changed. But while past performance is no guarantee of future success, it'd be remiss not to entertain the thought of bitcoin eventually going on another run. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested into the future ecosystem. It may be an oft mentioned meme but when the fruits of this injection come to bear we should be seeing another bull run.

The biggest thing I disagree with is that Bitcoin will never be stable. EVER. No matter the price. Never.
It was said at $2 that if Bitcoin reached $100 or $1000... and guess what? It was just as volatile as ever. It will be the same story at $10k.

It's gonna be stable around the $100k-$300k (or higher) area which it WILL be destined for if things go right.

[Ibian]

There is a hard limit on how long things can go on this way. Come the halving, the price will either double or the network strength will be halved, or some mix of those.

Other than that, it would probably take something like the winkle etf plus several large and heavily lawyered and insured exchanges to set things off at this point. Practical and cheap hardware wallets might help too, but that's more of a sideshow to the main event imo.

[Melbustus]

To OP's point: Correct, the arguments around here don't change much. One difference vs 2011, though, is that over multi-year timescales, the bulls have now been proven right.

[gustav]

it's not 2011 anymore

[ElectricMucus]

What is new is the rise of just like last time topics.

[noma]

The biggest thing I disagree with is that Bitcoin will never be stable. EVER. No matter the price. Never.
It was said at $2 that if Bitcoin reached $100 or $1000... and guess what? It was just as volatile as ever. It will be the same story at $10k.

Thats actually not a good thing imo, as a lot of people/merchants decline to  use it because then it becomes a gamble.

[Nrcewker]

the men are still there, but things are no more the same ones.

[Shak]

The biggest thing I disagree with is that Bitcoin will never be stable. EVER. No matter the price. Never.
It was said at $2 that if Bitcoin reached $100 or $1000... and guess what? It was just as volatile as ever. It will be the same story at $10k.

"always" and "ever" are the best ways to get rid of your money

[Ibian]

The biggest thing I disagree with is that Bitcoin will never be stable. EVER. No matter the price. Never.
It was said at $2 that if Bitcoin reached $100 or $1000... and guess what? It was just as volatile as ever. It will be the same story at $10k.

Thats actually not a good thing imo, as a lot of people/merchants decline to  use it because then it becomes a gamble.

Fiat money is not stable either. Just a few months ago the dollar was worth 5.5 of my local currency. Today it's 6.6. It has been 7 in the past and may for all any of us know go over that in a little while.

There is money to be made trading this shit. It's completely normal. And it is one of the things that will, do in fact, attract money people.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Stop it with these topics.


When price was 100X less what it is now, when it was still in its early/novelty phase, when a lot of people around the world who could have been interested in getting involved in bitcoin never even heard of it (they heard of it in november-december 2013, to then become what are now the r/bitcoin bagdholers, that offered a dumping ground for early adopters to cash out), when just a little injection of fiat coming in the space was able to pump it orders of magnitude higher, bitcoin recovered!
Whoop-de-fucking-do!


When are you going to understand that pumping from $2 to the old ATH of $32 in 2011 is no the same as pumping now at $220 to the old current of $1200?
That it takes amounts of new money coming in that are exponentially higher and the landscape that allows for pumps to happen is totally different?

When a bubble/pump&dump reaches an unsustainable level considering existent demand and possible future demand it stops going up, and it crashes back down to never reach that high point ever again. That's how bubbles work.
Clearly that point for bitcoin was not $2. Was it $1200? Who knows, but very possible


Bitcoiners: thinking than bubbles/P&Ds go up forever since 2010.

it's not 2011 anymore

^^^^^^^^^^
This.


People, just stop saying "it happened in 2011, history will just repeat itself and the bitcoin bubbles will go on forever to 102981 trillions".
It makes you look like a jackass.

Who knows, it might (I doubt it), what I am saying is that y'all should stop taking it for granted or as a very likely scenario just because it happened in 2011  

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Another note:


About the famous bears you permabulls like to call out like the ones here who said that bitcoin was a bubble in 2011 when prices were around $2-$32 but pumped higher anyway.
The fact that price pumped doesn't mean they were wrong.

Sure, if they clearly said "we are going nowhere but down" they were wrong because price pumped, but their main argument (bitcoin is a bubble) is not proven wrong just because the price was pumped&dumped a few times.

Looking at the current linear all time chart, they kinda had a point right?



remember

all time chart in 2011 ≠  all time chart now


They look similar, but the situation and scale is totally different.
Keep thinking that you should expect a new bull market just because it happened in the past at your own peril  

The more it goes up, the more difficult it is to continue the exponential trend  

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Not much has changed. But while past performance is no guarantee of future success, it'd be remiss not to entertain the thought of bitcoin eventually going on another run. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested into the future ecosystem. It may be an oft mentioned meme but when the fruits of this injection come to bear we should be seeing another bull run.

If you ask me, the "infrastructure" bulls keep mentioning doesn't sound like a guarantee at all.

I mean, what is this infrastructure anyway? A whole bunch of merchants accepting USD from a payment processor through a bitcoin dump that has the only result to generate more selling pressure out of pure self-promotion?
A bunch of ATMs around the globe with 10% fee among scams or scandals like Robocoin?
ETFs that are taking forever to come out?
Second market investment trust fund that has investors that can't liquidate holding stuck with their bags watching the price go down?
"Regulated exchanges" nobody uses like coinbase with "to the moon" slogans and countdowns that generate pump&dumps like we lately saw?
Bad VC money invested in bitcoin companies that can go puff tomorrow like Neo&Bee and countless others?
Mining companies going bankrupt?

I don't know about all that "infrastructure".

[HarmonLi]

I agree completely - The only thing that's bothering me is that everyone expects things to play out like 2011+ That means there's still a lot of hope out there. But then again, the bleeding year that lies behind us has done its best to crush everyone's spirits to desperation. We're at a turning point.

[Ultros]

I agree completely - The only thing that's bothering me is that everyone expects things to play out like 2011+ That means there's still a lot of hope out there. But then again, the bleeding year that lies behind us has done its best to crush everyone's spirits to desperation. We're at a turning point.

I wouldn't say "everyone" expects that....a few people that were there in 2011 maybe, not all of them, and not much of the noobs that joined in 2013/14.

Personally I've been shorting BTC since months...and I've never been that anxious.

[nakaone]

Stop it with these topics.


When price was 100X less what it is now, when it was still in its early/novelty phase, when a lot of people around the world who could have been interested in getting involved in bitcoin never even heard of it (they heard of it in november-december 2013, to then become what are now the r/bitcoin bagdholers, that offered a dumping ground for early adopters to cash out), when just a little injection of fiat coming in the space was able to pump it orders of magnitude higher, bitcoin recovered!
Whoop-de-fucking-do!


When are you going to understand that pumping from $2 to the old ATH of $32 in 2011 is no the same as pumping now at $220 to the old current of $1200?
That it takes amounts of new money coming in that are exponentially higher and the landscape that allows for pumps to happen is totally different?

When a bubble/pump&dump reaches an unsustainable level considering existent demand and possible future demand it stops going up, and it crashes back down to never reach that high point ever again. That's how bubbles work.
Clearly that point for bitcoin was not $2. Was it $1200? Who knows, but very possible


Bitcoiners: thinking than bubbles/P&Ds go up forever since 2010.

it's not 2011 anymore

^^^^^^^^^^
This.


People, just stop saying "it happened in 2011, history will just repeat itself and the bitcoin bubbles will go on forever to 102981 trillions".
It makes you look like a jackass.

Who knows, it might (I doubt it), what I am saying is that y'all should stop taking it for granted or as a very likely scenario just because it happened in 2011  

the only troll really arguing so it is worth an answer.

I think the same argument, that it takes significantly more money to go higher was used in every phase of bitcoin and it was and is true. but it does not really matter.

look bitcoin maybe has 1 million users, maybe little more. the user group is mostly grounded on speculators, libertarians, as well as tech savvy guys.

the next group integrated will probably be from the financial industry or the rich, this alone would boost bitcoin. I think that it is possible that bitcoin fails to integrate new groups, but from an economist perspective it does not make much sense, since there are exclusive use cases in bitcoin.

take a step back and compare the market cap to other financial or precial metals caps and do your conclusions.

bitcoin may fail or is already saturated, but to say it will fail because it is impossible to boost the price since it is already high is complete nonsense.

[Paashaas]

If you ask me, the "infrastructure" bulls keep mentioning doesn't sound like a guarantee at all.

I mean, what is this infrastructure anyway? A whole bunch of merchants accepting USD from a payment processor through a bitcoin dump that has the only result to generate more selling pressure out of pure self-promotion?
A bunch of ATMs around the globe with 10% fee among scams or scandals like Robocoin?
ETFs that are taking forever to come out?
Second market investment trust fund that has investors that can't liquidate holding stuck with their bags watching the price go down?
"Regulated exchanges" nobody uses like coinbase with "to the moon" slogans and countdowns that generate pump&dumps like we lately saw?
Bad VC money invested in bitcoin companies that can go puff tomorrow like Neo&Bee and countless others?
Mining companies going bankrupt?

I don't know about all that "infrastructure".

Bla bla bla bla, dont you got better things to do in youre schit life than talking trash over and over again?

[Ibian]

the only troll really arguing so it is worth an answer.

No. It is never worth feeding trolls. Shut the fuck up. They can only exist where people take their bait. We have the trolls we deserve, and it is your fault.