Was that the bottom ?

[afbitcoins]

There are several significant lows on that same lower trendline including the low point after the April 2013 'mini' bubble collapse, the bottom of the silk road siezure panic sell off and the wierd btc-e flash crash. If I'm not mistaken MtGox collapsed roughly to this level too in its death throws.

So was that the bottom? Any thoughts you'd like to share ?

Not against bearish opinions but please sensible discussion not ' ooo you don't know how to draw lines'

[1715108420]

1715108420

[1715108420]

1715108420

[findftp]

Any thoughts?


Not against bearish opinions but please sensible discussion not ' ooo you don't know how to draw lines'

Yes it was, for me.
I'm pretty much all-in.

If it goes below 160 again, I will even break one golden rule which says to not put more money into it than you can afford to loose.

[Ludi]

The bottom could be far worse and it doesn't bare thinking about, though I don't ever think it will go less than £100 and if it did it would be very bad news for miners.

[readysalted89]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year. 

[NeuroticFish]

Any thoughts?

The chance to get to 0.01$ is the same as the chance to go to 100,000$.
This being said, though I hope for BTC to grow, and do that fast, I still think that we may be far from the bottom and bad days will still come.

[neurotypical]

There's no guaranteed bottom, some say double figures are possible, some say we have already hit bottom.

[jcoin200]

There's no guaranteed bottom, some say double figures are possible, some say we have already hit bottom.

at this point it seems like if any one whale decided to get out, we could see double digits. maybe only for a few hours or days, but it definitely seems possible.

[Elwar]

I don't mind one bit staying in this $200 to $220 range, it is building a solid foundation. The only wavering have been jumps upward before coming back down. That tells me the direction it will be heading.

[afbitcoins]

Thanks for the comments !

at this point it seems like if any one whale decided to get out, we could see double digits. maybe only for a few hours or days, but it definitely seems possible.

Not sure why a whale would suddenly get out, I think it might be more likely whales will suddenly go in. But I confess to being a bit of perma bull

[findftp]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year.  

So they first buy them at 200 and then dump them at <160?
Ah, I see, it makes sense.

[readysalted89]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year.  

So they first buy them at 200 and then dump them at <160?
Ah, I see, it makes sense.

We never found out what price the last auction winners paid, but it must have been well below market price because they were happy to dump for whatever they could get. If the next auction winners only pay half price then they can happily dump for <160.

[findftp]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year.  

So they first buy them at 200 and then dump them at <160?
Ah, I see, it makes sense.

We never found out what price the last auction winners paid, but it must have been well below market price because they were happy to dump for whatever they could get.

Do you have proof that the buyers dumped their coins?
I don't think they did actually unless you have some proof, otherwise I take it as speculation.

[slowmo1983]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year.  

So they first buy them at 200 and then dump them at <160?
Ah, I see, it makes sense.

We never found out what price the last auction winners paid, but it must have been well below market price because they were happy to dump for whatever they could get. If the next auction winners only pay half price then they can happily dump for <160.

any proof that they dumped it?

[afbitcoins]

Heres another bullish idea. I'm full of bullish ideas today 

The two areas highlighted with rectangles look remarkably similar. Look what happened after the first one.

[readysalted89]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year.  

So they first buy them at 200 and then dump them at <160?
Ah, I see, it makes sense.

We never found out what price the last auction winners paid, but it must have been well below market price because they were happy to dump for whatever they could get.

Do you have proof that the buyers dumped their coins?
I don't think they did actually unless you have some proof, otherwise I take it as speculation.

The price crashed from about 380 at the time of the auction announcement. After the winners got their coins it crashed right down and has not returned  to 380 yet. I assume that was partly due to the winners dumping, although Its just speculation. As I said we don't know what they paid so we can only speculate on how much they paid and if they dumped. However the accompanying price crash is quite a big coincidence if it was not caused by them dumping.

[findftp]

Heres another bullish idea. I'm full of bullish ideas today 

The two areas highlighted with rectangles look remarkably similar. Look what happened after the first one.

I was about to post something similar.
If you look at november 2013 to may 2014 it looks pretty much the same as the whole bubble from november 2014 till now.

[afbitcoins]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year.  

So they first buy them at 200 and then dump them at <160?
Ah, I see, it makes sense.

We never found out what price the last auction winners paid, but it must have been well below market price because they were happy to dump for whatever they could get.

Do you have proof that the buyers dumped their coins?
I don't think they did actually unless you have some proof, otherwise I take it as speculation.

The price crashed from about 380 at the time of the auction announcement. After the winners got their coins it crashed right down and has not returned  to 380 yet. I assume that was partly due to the winners dumping, although Its just speculation. As I said we don't know what they paid so we can only speculate on how much they paid and if they dumped. However the accompanying price crash is quite a big coincidence if it was not caused by them dumping.

I find that quite a believable scenario, for me attempts to suppress price is a bullish signal. Maybe we should be saying, thanks for the opportunity to buy more cheap bitcoin. Once the bitcoin train starts rolling again you don't want to miss out.

[jcoin200]

Thanks for the comments !

at this point it seems like if any one whale decided to get out, we could see double digits. maybe only for a few hours or days, but it definitely seems possible.

Not sure why a whale would suddenly get out, I think it might be more likely whales will suddenly go in. But I confess to being a bit of perma bull

I'm just saying you never know who could be holding a big bag...someone who made a lot on silk road, someone who fears their gov't will "ban" btc might be looking to dump, you just never know why or who could dump.  I was bullish, but seeing the fallout from mt gox seems to shaken btc pretty good.  I just dont have a a lot of confidence of most players involved in btc at the moment...coinbase seems to be the most legit site and has a lot of money invested into it, but other than that I dont trust any of them...

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

The only guaranteed bottom is 0 my friends. Other than that it's just mental masturbation. But let's try to guess the future.. we've seen 154 as the bottom for at least a month now, that should be the reference poin. It if toes lower than that, expect double figures, which would mean its time to sell your car sell your house and sell your wife because it's buy time over here.

[findftp]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year.  

So they first buy them at 200 and then dump them at <160?
Ah, I see, it makes sense.

We never found out what price the last auction winners paid, but it must have been well below market price because they were happy to dump for whatever they could get.

Do you have proof that the buyers dumped their coins?
I don't think they did actually unless you have some proof, otherwise I take it as speculation.

... I assume ...

Ok, speculation, thanks.
No offense.

[SirChiko]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year. 

That's nonsense, even last selling of btc from goverment didn't touch the price at all as it isn't dumped on exchange but instread auctioned.

[readysalted89]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year. 

That's nonsense, even last selling of btc from goverment didn't touch the price at all as it isn't dumped on exchange but instread auctioned.

Auctioned to people who probably pay well below the market price. If they pay half price in the auction they can then dump their coins on exchanges and immediately double their money. Nobody found out what the winners of the last two auctions paid but I doubt they would pay more than market price. The amount of bidders for the second auction was far less than for the first, and I assume the buyers bid far less than the market price during the second auction after seeing Tim Draper getting burned after the first.

[Miz4r]

Heres another bullish idea. I'm full of bullish ideas today  

The two areas highlighted with rectangles look remarkably similar. Look what happened after the first one.

It also looks similar to the Oct-Nov picture in there. Those were only a-b-c corrections of a larger bear trend though, so if this is the same thing again then we will see more downside after the next 'c' wave up to the 400 area. I don't know what it will be, I do believe it's quite likely at this point we will see another wave up first beyond 300 but after that it's anyone's guess whether the bear goes on or we move into a new bull market. Another retest of the bottom right now would be too early I think, the market needs a few more months to gather momentum before it's ready again to retest it if it wants to do that.

[BillyBobZorton]

I think we'll test the 500's, not be able to pass it and go down again for a while, then the next try will be the good one that stablishes 500 as new floor.

[bassclef]

It also looks similar to the Oct-Nov picture in there. Those were only a-b-c corrections of a larger bear trend though, so if this is the same thing again then we will see more downside after the next 'c' wave up to the 400 area. I don't know what it will be, I do believe it's quite likely at this point we will see another wave up first beyond 300 but after that it's anyone's guess whether the bear goes on or we move into a new bull market. Another retest of the bottom right now would be too early I think, the market needs a few more months to gather momentum before it's ready again to retest it if it wants to do that.

I think you really have to consider volume, since it is essentially the amount of activity in a market. This is where I think EW theory has a weakness. The recent selloff was on far, far more volume than the previous ones, greatly increasing the amount of coins that changed hands, reducing the amount of "floating coins" available to sell, increasing demand on the remaining supply. Overall this decreases the chance of another crash below $200.

[zimmah]

I think we'll test the 500's, not be able to pass it and go down again for a while, then the next try will be the good one that stablishes 500 as new floor.

could be so, but historically speaking, a new floor is usually about 1/5th of the previous peak, and lower than that is no exception.

so if 500 is to be the new floor to stabilize at, that would mean the next peak, after finally breaking 500, would be at least 2500.

[afbitcoins]

I think we'll test the 500's, not be able to pass it and go down again for a while, then the next try will be the good one that stablishes 500 as new floor.

could be so, but historically speaking, a new floor is usually about 1/5th of the previous peak, and lower than that is no exception.

so if 500 is to be the new floor to stabilize at, that would mean the next peak, after finally breaking 500, would be at least 2500.

This kind of aligns with my thinking too, on the first chart i have put the arrow up to around that level, just under actually, which kind of reaches where looks like there might be a parallel trendline. Waving my arms around and looking at tealeaves, it wouldn't suprise me if price starts to fade again after failing to push through. On gut feeling I think there will still be a year or more to wait for the next parabolic bubble.

[Bralex]

When we went below 200 how long did that take to bounce straight back, better question how long did it stay below? minutes.

Them prices have to much support it is not going below and staying below 200 unless something really unlucky/bad happens enjoy the cheap coin while you can   

[redsn0w]

Simple , simple. The real bottom is 0 dollars , and at the moment bitcoin is still alive. My suggestion is : buy bitcoin and hold the for 3-4 years (you will be victorious).

[Bralex]

Simple , simple. The real bottom is 0 dollars , and at the moment bitcoin is still alive. My suggestion is : buy bitcoin and hold the for 3-4 years (you will be victorious).

That's a little right but alot wrong, the real bottom is 0 but do you understand what it takes to get there? If that moment comes it is dead that is the only way it get's there.

[afbitcoins]

I don't understand 'the bottom is zero', I hear it quite often. Yes its true the real actual bottom it could ever be is zero, so the top is infinity too by similar logic. Price is bound between zero and infinity by laws of maths.

By bottom I mean the bottom of this current bear trend originating from the all time high before it starts rising again unless you think this time it is on a death spiral to its ultimate demise

[cellard]

154 was the bottom. If not: 95 will be. Thats the very limit.

[Callahan]

154$ was the low bottom, the future is higher

[yayayo]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year. 

That's nonsense, even last selling of btc from goverment didn't touch the price at all as it isn't dumped on exchange but instread auctioned.

Auctioned to people who probably pay well below the market price. If they pay half price in the auction they can then dump their coins on exchanges and immediately double their money. Nobody found out what the winners of the last two auctions paid but I doubt they would pay more than market price. The amount of bidders for the second auction was far less than for the first, and I assume the buyers bid far less than the market price during the second auction after seeing Tim Draper getting burned after the first.

I don't think that they paid substantially less than market price. These are big chunks that can't be purchased at the regular markets without pushing prices up substantially. For that reason I think bidders in the auction are mostly longterm holders.

What's more likely to have caused the market drop is the psychological impact of the information that there were fewer bidders on the last auction, indicating declining demand. Of course it's possible that this effect recurs.

ya.ya.yo!

[redsn0w]

I don't understand 'the bottom is zero', I hear it quite often. Yes its true the real actual bottom it could ever be is zero, so the top is infinity too by similar logic. Price is bound between zero and infinity by laws of maths.

By bottom I mean the bottom of this current bear trend originating from the all time high before it starts rising again unless you think this time it is on a death spiral to its ultimate demise

Oh well, in this case (my personal opinion) the new bottom will be  $ 120-130 . If the price go lower than $ 120 it will be a "catastrophe".

[damiano]

It won't break 200.  The volume on the last bigger dump that took us to 210 was weak.

Volume on these mini dumps is pathetic

[Amph]

154$ was the low bottom, the future is higher

"peak bottom" don't really count, that wasthe  "all time low" not the bottom, the real bottom was a bit higher than that

[Herbert2020]

honestly i think it was the bottom and it is not going to go bellow 160-150$ again or at least it is going to encounter heavy resistance to go below that

[findftp]

honestly i think it was the bottom and it is not going to go bellow 160-150$ again or at least it is going to encounter heavy resistance to go below that

Well at least the price has stabilized a bit.
Lets hope that it remains somewhat stable and will rise slowly instead of those insane darkcoin pumps.

[croato]

I guess 200 is real bottom and lower price can last for few days max. At 200 there will be lot of buyers (sure if something dont go realy bad). Two digits would be sign of death in my opinion and lot of ppl would go out (miners, merchants and investors).

[Brewins]

I agree with your line. Worst case scenario bitcoin bubbled and then returned to the mean, and will rise really slowly from now on.

I doubt bitcoin is dying or something

[afbitcoins]

Well I've added a bit more to my stack for first time in a long time. Feels like bitcoin is coiled up ready for a big move, I'm hoping up, but I guess it could be down. Have reserved a little fiat if it does go down

[findftp]

Well I've added a bit more to my stack for first time in a long time. Feels like bitcoin is coiled up ready for a big move, I'm hoping up, but I guess it could be down. Have reserved a little fiat if it does go down

So it was you with the 1000 coins buy order at bitfinex?

I just bought some extra yesterday @ 220, I just do it once in a while when I can't hold it anymore.
It's like the best food just sitting in front of you while nobody wants to eat it.
At these moments I just can't hesitate to buy some extra while I still have more than enough coins already.
I think I'm addicted... I should search some help

[afbitcoins]

So it was you with the 1000 coins buy order at bitfinex?

   

I wish, I'm just small fry but its fun.

Quite a nice move up happening now, breaking through a bit of resistance looks like

[findftp]

The line I'm looking at has not been broken yet.

finex:



But I think and hope it will, soon.

[afbitcoins]

Hey findftp did we get above your line ?

[findftp]

Hey findftp did we get above your line ?

Yep, we certainly did See below.




280 is a major resistance line.
All hell will break loose if we go beyond it.
Prepare for 430 if we do.

[afbitcoins]

Resurrecting my old thread. The thesis that this was the bottom is still valid.

Heres an interesting idea, borrowed from someone on tradingView (sorry can't remember the username offhand will try and find it), Here is the bottom viewed upside down making it look like a top

Is this a bubble bottom ??




Does that look like a bubble top ? Was that bottom a bubble bottom

Start stacking, this is the accumulation time

[findftp]

Resurrecting my old thread. The thesis that this was the bottom is still valid.

Heres an interesting idea, borrowed from someone on tradingView (sorry can't remember the username offhand will try and find it), Here is the bottom viewed upside down making it look like a top

Is this a bubble bottom ??

Start stacking, this is the accumulation time

I'm pretty much loaded to the max already.
I also went margin long at 220 with a few coins.
Now I'm just enjoying the ride

[yefi]

Too early to say with confidence, but it certainly could be. After the next wave of enthusiasm wanes, we'll see if fear's kingdom is finally over.  

[findftp]

Too early to say with confidence, but it certainly could be. After the next wave of enthusiasm wanes, we'll see if fear's kingdom is finally over.  

I don't mind to wait for others to finally go long at 320.
I'm enjoying the ride already

[afbitcoins]

Hi findftp, brave move going all in but i have a feeling you will be very happy in the end. Won't suprise me to see some more big bear waves on the way up though.

only thing annoying me about my last purchase was maybe i should have got more.

Heres the inspiration for that idea I posted earlier on turning the chart upside down. Credit to ‘lowstrife’ on TradingView website for this idea. https://www.tradingview.com/v/ktWNOrLB/#tc146808

[yefi]

Too early to say with confidence, but it certainly could be. After the next wave of enthusiasm wanes, we'll see if fear's kingdom is finally over.  

I don't mind to wait for others to finally go long at 320.
I'm enjoying the ride already

Well, acting with confidence will not reap the greatest profits either. 

[findftp]

only thing annoying me about my last purchase was maybe i should have got more.

I agree, but you should always be happy with what you got, not with what you don't have.

I sounds easy, but I admit, it isn't. You should try though.

Just think about all those people who still have none at all
Yes, they exist, there are millions of them.
Millions of them with millions of cash ready to buy.

[afbitcoins]

only thing annoying me about my last purchase was maybe i should have got more.

I agree, but you should always be happy with what you got, not with what you don't have.

I sounds easy, but I admit, it isn't. You should try though.

Just think about all those people who still have none at all
Yes, they exist, there are millions of them.
Millions of them with millions of cash ready to buy.

Hypothetically, say you'd sold some bitcoin and bought some gold when bitcoin was near its all time high and were tempted to sell it to buy back into bitcoin would you rush in now .... or wait ?

[findftp]

only thing annoying me about my last purchase was maybe i should have got more.

I agree, but you should always be happy with what you got, not with what you don't have.

I sounds easy, but I admit, it isn't. You should try though.

Just think about all those people who still have none at all
Yes, they exist, there are millions of them.
Millions of them with millions of cash ready to buy.

Hypothetically, say you'd sold some bitcoin and bought some gold when bitcoin was near its all time high and were tempted to sell it to buy back into bitcoin would you rush in now .... or wait ?

I already did, back in december.
I sold on the gold bottom to catch the bitcoin bottom
It went a little bit worse after that, but now I would say I'm in a little profit with that trade.

I figured there was much more upside potential with bitcoin than with gold.
I'm usually too early with my trades. I'm in the process of learning to slow down a bit.

Bitcoin is gold on steroids.

[afbitcoins]

only thing annoying me about my last purchase was maybe i should have got more.

I agree, but you should always be happy with what you got, not with what you don't have.

I sounds easy, but I admit, it isn't. You should try though.

Just think about all those people who still have none at all
Yes, they exist, there are millions of them.
Millions of them with millions of cash ready to buy.

Hypothetically, say you'd sold some bitcoin and bought some gold when bitcoin was near its all time high and were tempted to sell it to buy back into bitcoin would you rush in now .... or wait ?

I already did, back in december.
I sold on the gold bottom to catch the bitcoin bottom
It went a little bit worse after that, but now I would say I'm in a little profit with that trade.

I figured there was much more upside potential with bitcoin than with gold.
I'm usually too early with my trades. I'm in the process of learning to slow down a bit.

Bitcoin is gold on steroids.

Think I'll do it!!  wether the ratio moves up or down from here in short term I don't think I'll be bothered about those short term moves when looking back

[findftp]

only thing annoying me about my last purchase was maybe i should have got more.

I agree, but you should always be happy with what you got, not with what you don't have.

I sounds easy, but I admit, it isn't. You should try though.

Just think about all those people who still have none at all
Yes, they exist, there are millions of them.
Millions of them with millions of cash ready to buy.

Hypothetically, say you'd sold some bitcoin and bought some gold when bitcoin was near its all time high and were tempted to sell it to buy back into bitcoin would you rush in now .... or wait ?

I already did, back in december.
I sold on the gold bottom to catch the bitcoin bottom
It went a little bit worse after that, but now I would say I'm in a little profit with that trade.

I figured there was much more upside potential with bitcoin than with gold.
I'm usually too early with my trades. I'm in the process of learning to slow down a bit.

Bitcoin is gold on steroids.

Think I'll do it!!  wether the ratio moves up or down from here in short term I don't think I'll be bothered about those short term moves when looking back

But.. but.. you were talking hypothetically, right?
I think we both regret that we did not sell more...

But hey, life is all about calculated risks.

I just compensate it with some more leverage.

[afbitcoins]

only thing annoying me about my last purchase was maybe i should have got more.

I agree, but you should always be happy with what you got, not with what you don't have.

I sounds easy, but I admit, it isn't. You should try though.

Just think about all those people who still have none at all
Yes, they exist, there are millions of them.
Millions of them with millions of cash ready to buy.

Hypothetically, say you'd sold some bitcoin and bought some gold when bitcoin was near its all time high and were tempted to sell it to buy back into bitcoin would you rush in now .... or wait ?

I already did, back in december.
I sold on the gold bottom to catch the bitcoin bottom
It went a little bit worse after that, but now I would say I'm in a little profit with that trade.

I figured there was much more upside potential with bitcoin than with gold.
I'm usually too early with my trades. I'm in the process of learning to slow down a bit.

Bitcoin is gold on steroids.

Think I'll do it!!  wether the ratio moves up or down from here in short term I don't think I'll be bothered about those short term moves when looking back

But.. but.. you were talking hypothetically, right?
I think we both regret that we did not sell more...

But hey, life is all about calculated risks.

I just compensate it with some more leverage.

er yes hypothetically  on the whole I'm mostly pleased with the trades i've made. Have made one or two pretty bad desicions along the way too but its all part of the learning experience.