Was that the bottom ?

[SirChiko]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year. 

That's nonsense, even last selling of btc from goverment didn't touch the price at all as it isn't dumped on exchange but instread auctioned.

[1714477039]

1714477039

[readysalted89]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year. 

That's nonsense, even last selling of btc from goverment didn't touch the price at all as it isn't dumped on exchange but instread auctioned.

Auctioned to people who probably pay well below the market price. If they pay half price in the auction they can then dump their coins on exchanges and immediately double their money. Nobody found out what the winners of the last two auctions paid but I doubt they would pay more than market price. The amount of bidders for the second auction was far less than for the first, and I assume the buyers bid far less than the market price during the second auction after seeing Tim Draper getting burned after the first.

[Miz4r]

Heres another bullish idea. I'm full of bullish ideas today  

The two areas highlighted with rectangles look remarkably similar. Look what happened after the first one.

It also looks similar to the Oct-Nov picture in there. Those were only a-b-c corrections of a larger bear trend though, so if this is the same thing again then we will see more downside after the next 'c' wave up to the 400 area. I don't know what it will be, I do believe it's quite likely at this point we will see another wave up first beyond 300 but after that it's anyone's guess whether the bear goes on or we move into a new bull market. Another retest of the bottom right now would be too early I think, the market needs a few more months to gather momentum before it's ready again to retest it if it wants to do that.

[BillyBobZorton]

I think we'll test the 500's, not be able to pass it and go down again for a while, then the next try will be the good one that stablishes 500 as new floor.

[bassclef]

It also looks similar to the Oct-Nov picture in there. Those were only a-b-c corrections of a larger bear trend though, so if this is the same thing again then we will see more downside after the next 'c' wave up to the 400 area. I don't know what it will be, I do believe it's quite likely at this point we will see another wave up first beyond 300 but after that it's anyone's guess whether the bear goes on or we move into a new bull market. Another retest of the bottom right now would be too early I think, the market needs a few more months to gather momentum before it's ready again to retest it if it wants to do that.

I think you really have to consider volume, since it is essentially the amount of activity in a market. This is where I think EW theory has a weakness. The recent selloff was on far, far more volume than the previous ones, greatly increasing the amount of coins that changed hands, reducing the amount of "floating coins" available to sell, increasing demand on the remaining supply. Overall this decreases the chance of another crash below $200.

[zimmah]

I think we'll test the 500's, not be able to pass it and go down again for a while, then the next try will be the good one that stablishes 500 as new floor.

could be so, but historically speaking, a new floor is usually about 1/5th of the previous peak, and lower than that is no exception.

so if 500 is to be the new floor to stabilize at, that would mean the next peak, after finally breaking 500, would be at least 2500.

[afbitcoins]

I think we'll test the 500's, not be able to pass it and go down again for a while, then the next try will be the good one that stablishes 500 as new floor.

could be so, but historically speaking, a new floor is usually about 1/5th of the previous peak, and lower than that is no exception.

so if 500 is to be the new floor to stabilize at, that would mean the next peak, after finally breaking 500, would be at least 2500.

This kind of aligns with my thinking too, on the first chart i have put the arrow up to around that level, just under actually, which kind of reaches where looks like there might be a parallel trendline. Waving my arms around and looking at tealeaves, it wouldn't suprise me if price starts to fade again after failing to push through. On gut feeling I think there will still be a year or more to wait for the next parabolic bubble.

[Bralex]

When we went below 200 how long did that take to bounce straight back, better question how long did it stay below? minutes.

Them prices have to much support it is not going below and staying below 200 unless something really unlucky/bad happens enjoy the cheap coin while you can   

[redsn0w]

Simple , simple. The real bottom is 0 dollars , and at the moment bitcoin is still alive. My suggestion is : buy bitcoin and hold the for 3-4 years (you will be victorious).

[Bralex]

Simple , simple. The real bottom is 0 dollars , and at the moment bitcoin is still alive. My suggestion is : buy bitcoin and hold the for 3-4 years (you will be victorious).

That's a little right but alot wrong, the real bottom is 0 but do you understand what it takes to get there? If that moment comes it is dead that is the only way it get's there.

[afbitcoins]

I don't understand 'the bottom is zero', I hear it quite often. Yes its true the real actual bottom it could ever be is zero, so the top is infinity too by similar logic. Price is bound between zero and infinity by laws of maths.

By bottom I mean the bottom of this current bear trend originating from the all time high before it starts rising again unless you think this time it is on a death spiral to its ultimate demise

[cellard]

154 was the bottom. If not: 95 will be. Thats the very limit.

[Callahan]

154$ was the low bottom, the future is higher

[yayayo]

The next US government auction of silk road coins could crash the price. When the winners start dumping it could spark enough panic selling to go below 160. The auction is penciled in for the first quarter of this year. 

That's nonsense, even last selling of btc from goverment didn't touch the price at all as it isn't dumped on exchange but instread auctioned.

Auctioned to people who probably pay well below the market price. If they pay half price in the auction they can then dump their coins on exchanges and immediately double their money. Nobody found out what the winners of the last two auctions paid but I doubt they would pay more than market price. The amount of bidders for the second auction was far less than for the first, and I assume the buyers bid far less than the market price during the second auction after seeing Tim Draper getting burned after the first.

I don't think that they paid substantially less than market price. These are big chunks that can't be purchased at the regular markets without pushing prices up substantially. For that reason I think bidders in the auction are mostly longterm holders.

What's more likely to have caused the market drop is the psychological impact of the information that there were fewer bidders on the last auction, indicating declining demand. Of course it's possible that this effect recurs.

ya.ya.yo!

[redsn0w]

I don't understand 'the bottom is zero', I hear it quite often. Yes its true the real actual bottom it could ever be is zero, so the top is infinity too by similar logic. Price is bound between zero and infinity by laws of maths.

By bottom I mean the bottom of this current bear trend originating from the all time high before it starts rising again unless you think this time it is on a death spiral to its ultimate demise

Oh well, in this case (my personal opinion) the new bottom will be  $ 120-130 . If the price go lower than $ 120 it will be a "catastrophe".

[damiano]

It won't break 200.  The volume on the last bigger dump that took us to 210 was weak.

Volume on these mini dumps is pathetic

[Amph]

154$ was the low bottom, the future is higher

"peak bottom" don't really count, that wasthe  "all time low" not the bottom, the real bottom was a bit higher than that

[Herbert2020]

honestly i think it was the bottom and it is not going to go bellow 160-150$ again or at least it is going to encounter heavy resistance to go below that

[findftp]

honestly i think it was the bottom and it is not going to go bellow 160-150$ again or at least it is going to encounter heavy resistance to go below that

Well at least the price has stabilized a bit.
Lets hope that it remains somewhat stable and will rise slowly instead of those insane darkcoin pumps.

[croato]

I guess 200 is real bottom and lower price can last for few days max. At 200 there will be lot of buyers (sure if something dont go realy bad). Two digits would be sign of death in my opinion and lot of ppl would go out (miners, merchants and investors).