Could a parallel bitcoin economy thrive during a global crisis?

[Dansker]

Could a parallel bitcoin economy thrive during a economical/financial global crisis?

Or do you think the bitcoin economy is tied in with the rest of the economy, meaning it too would be affected negatively by a global economical/financial crisis?

Tell me what you guys think.

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[BrightAnarchist]

Could a parallel bitcoin economy thrive during a economical/financial global crisis?.

Yes. I think it's the only area of significant economic growth in the world that we'll have for the next 5 years or so. The incentives are just far too great to doing business the bitcoin way. Meanwhile, the fiat economy will crash and burn under the weight of its excessive debt.

[unclescrooge]

Actually the coming financial and currency crisis is the reason I am very bullish on the bitcoins.

When even the public will begin to see fiat currencies failing, they will try to seek refuge in sound currencies, like gold and silver. But you can count on governments to criminalize the use of the precious meta. And so comes bitcoin. Bitcoins have the properties of sound money, non inflationary, known quantities, divisible,... but are immaterial, can't be physically seized, pseudonymous,...

If you add the coming bitcoincards which will bring bitcoins to the physical world, I think bitcoins will thrive during the years to come. It can even save lives of a lot of people by allowing them to survive in a parallel economy when the "official" one isn't enough to barely feed them.


My two satoshis

[RodeoX]

Could a parallel bitcoin economy thrive during a global crisis?

It is, isn't it?

[nevafuse]

Could a parallel bitcoin economy thrive during a economical/financial global crisis?

Sure

Or do you think the bitcoin economy is tied in with the rest of the economy, meaning it too would be affected negatively by a global economical/financial crisis?

Although I personally believe governments greatly magnify our current issues, a crisis could still form that negatively affects bitcoin.  Bitcoin can't escape natural disasters.  Insurance companies could crumble in those situations because they can't afford the payouts.  Now policyholders of those failed companies are forced to spend money that would have gone towards vacations, jewelry, or investments on repairing their house/vehicle or medical expenses.  The housing & medical fields may temporarily boom while other industries falter.  Then college students may over-saturate those markets just as people are done repairing their homes or getting out of rehab.  Now there's a shortage of other industries, temporarily driving prices up.  The cycle is never ending.

[Realpra]

Well if the BTC economy was like the real one MtGox would have been shut down and bitcoinica bailed out.

The utter lack of such ludicrous inefficiencies alone will help grow the real BTC economy.


Then there is the whole circle of "credit being printed by government -> banks -> government -> banks*2" disappearing and leading to the rise of real investments not in garbage bonds and gambling, but factories and renewable energy.

I don't think any of us get how huge an effect that would have on market efficiency - that vicious cycle has many times the fund flow used by the ENTIRE world on thorium, renewable and fusion energy research/deployment combined .


Yeah I think BTC will do just fine minus small local dips. On a 3-5 year time frame I don't think you will see bitcoin going down.

[Vladimir]

Do you think these people would prefer to own some more fiat or some more satoshis?

[Polvos]

Everytime I see those pictures I find myself asking about how a government can make their money worth less than firewood. It's impressive.

[unclescrooge]

Everytime I see those pictures I find myself asking about how a government can make their money worth less than firewood. It's impressive.

And how can these people accept to use these worthless piece of shit even when prices doubles every month or so.

[Realpra]

Everytime I see those pictures I find myself asking about how a government can make their money worth less than firewood. It's impressive.

I read up on it; in the case of the Weimar republic (the pictures) they were actually forced by other countries due to their loss in the First World War.

They basically treated Germany like we do third world countries today, starving, exploiting and ridiculing them. As today the English/US media covered this up.

There were several revolutions before Hitler came about - the world was basically begging for things to go wrong and Hitler just per chance was one of many that succeeded.

No wonder they never told us THAT in history class. Doesn't excuse the Nazis of course, but damn there's some blame to share there!


Anyway on topic it is said that depressions can be deepened by a deflationary currency as well, could this be true?

I don't believe it too much myself - we have a depression now and the currencies are inflating quite a lot. Are the examples given simply depressions caused by something natural and unrelated to what ever currency is used?

Lets say we have BTC world economy in the future and there is a huge depression, will this make BTC fall out of favor?

A lot of "economy" is basically exploiting of the Earths resources, given that can depressions actually be a good thing now and then?

Lets say there is a market wide bad idea - like today with bailouts of idiot banks - for the market to correct itself all of that has to collapse. This means a depression sooner or later which will last until the NEW elite/businessmen catch up.

Will printing money really help in such a situation? That is what we are doing today, but it will only lead to a greater collapse or hyperinflation.
Now IF the government printed money and massively invested it correctly in the NEW paradigm THAT might actually work. However as you have a market wide bad conception of reality prior to a depression it is unlikely those in power would know what the next paradigm IS.

If my theory is correct it is more optimal to have a short smallish depression with BTC than to exacerbate the problem with "monetary policy" (of any kind) getting in the way. This way you at least avoid the constant risk of hyperinflation.

Any eventual BTC government should instead provide housing, food and basic necessities for its citizens (those who paid voluntary tax). This way people are kept alive while the market re-orients itself and it is a cheap policy compared to many others.

[BrightAnarchist]

And how can these people accept to use these worthless piece of shit even when prices doubles every month or so.

Haha nice way to put it; I feel that way about all fiat.

[Ragnar17]

Bitcoin is like a bankrupcy lawyer...it benefits when everyone else is doing shitty

[ElectricMucus]

Do you think these people would prefer to own some more fiat or some more satoshis?

They use the cash for it's intrinsic value and don't have access to a computer network.

They would prefer more cash. (which is not necessarily fiat )
scnr